MLB Best Bets Today September 24
The countdown continues, as we are down to just four days left in the MLB season. More playoff berths are expected to be decided tonight, as both the White Sox and Guardians have a magic number of 1 to punch a ticket to the postseason. The division race still hangs in the balance, but nobody else seems interested in a Wild Card spot, so the final one will go to one of those two teams barring a shocking turn of events.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats.
Here are the MLB best bets today for September 24:
Some individual player benchmarks to watch today:
- Paul Skenes needs eight strikeouts for 200 on the season
- Hunter Goodman needs one HR for 40
- Rafael Devers needs three HR for 40; also needs two RBI for 100
- Manny Machado, Max Muncy, Elly De La Cruz need one HR for 30
- Nolan Arenado, Bryce Harper need two HR for 30
- Junior Caminero, Ben Rice need three RBI for 100
- Pete Crow-Armstrong needs one SB for 40
- Jose Ramirez, Fernando Tatis Jr. need four SB for 40
- Josh Naylor, Elly De La Cruz need one SB for 30
- Oneil Cruz needs two SB for 30
Guardians vs. Red Sox Prediction
Pick: Guardians +108
While the Guardians will know whether or not they’ve clinched a playoff spot prior to playing tonight, winning the division and securing a bye still has some significant perks, so they’ll be focused on the task at hand. Daniel Espino will open for Joey Cantillo and the Red Sox will roll out Ranger Suarez in the finishing game of this series.
It was talked about last night on the broadcast that the Red Sox wanted to use their top relievers, and get Aroldis Chapman into the game, on Wednesday. I would not expect Chapman, Garrett Whitlock, or Tyron Guerrero to pitch today. It will be the lower-leverage arms for the Red Sox, so that should be an advantage for Cleveland. The Guardians did not use Erik Sabrowski, Hunter Gaddis, or Cade Smith last night.
Espino as an opener did not work out last time, as he walked three and gave up a three-run homer in one inning of work on 9/18. Hopefully it goes better tonight. I do think that with a doubleheader tomorrow, we could see a bit of a punt lineup from Boston to give some guys a blow. I’m thinking we see backup C Connor Wong, we don’t see Willson Contreras again, and maybe even see a day off for Wilyer Abreu or Caleb Durbin.
We’ll see how Espino fares in his lone inning. Cantillo is the bigger piece of the puzzle here. The Red Sox had 10 hits off of left-hander Foster Griffin last night, but many of them were lob wedges and sand wedges that found patches of grass. Griffin also had 12 Whiffs and seven strikeouts with an average exit velocity against of just 81.5 mph. He didn’t walk anybody and the Red Sox didn’t really seem interested in drawing walks.
That’s good for Cantillo, who has struck out over a batter per inning, but has also walked 79 batters in 154 innings of work. He has a 3.74 ERA with a 4.06 xERA and a 4.02 FIP over his 30 starts and a couple of bulk relief efforts. As a bulker, he hasn’t allowed a run with 13 strikeouts against two walks in 10 innings. Those numbers are from his last two appearances. Boston is slashing just .227/.296/.359 against LHP over the last 30 days and ranks 24th in wOBA.
We’ll see if the Guardians can do anything against Suarez, who got off to a slow start, but wound up turning in another very fine season. He enters this start with a 3.27 ERA, 3.73 xERA, and a 3.12 FIP over 143.1 innings of work. As usual, he’s been one of the best at keeping the ball in the park and is also pretty stingy with the free passes, though he did walk five in his last outing against the Rays.
Suarez has only allowed a 33.5% Hard Hit% and a 5.4% Barrel%, so he’s done a masterful job of limiting hard contact. The Guardians don’t really make a lot of that anyway. But, the crux of my handicap here is that I think that we’re going to see a watered-down Boston lineup and the leverage guys won’t pitch, two things that should help Cleveland out here. It makes them worth a shot at the plus-money price.
Reds vs. Braves Prediction
Pick: Elly De La Cruz Over 0.5 Stolen Bases (+453)
Usually when players are close to those round numbers and benchmarks, they try not to wait long to hit them if they can help it. Drake Baldwin only has eight caught stealings this season with 45 successful steals. Sean Murphy, who has been doing more of the catching lately, has three caught stealings against 14 successful swipes.
EDLC is 20-for-26 off right-handed pitchers this season and 15-for-17 in the second half overall, including 5-for-5 this month. While 30 isn’t impressive relative to his career numbers, including 67 steals in 2024, 30 is still better than 29.
