MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Thursday, April 3.
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1:05 PM Eastern
Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies starting pitcher Taijuan Walker had one of the worst seasons of any player in the league last year, posting a 7.10 ERA and a 6.94 FIP while allowing 2.6 home runs per nine innings across 19 appearances. Meanwhile, Antonio Senzatela hasn’t posted an ERA below 5.00 since 2021, having missed much of the past two seasons due to injury. In his first start of the season, he allowed nine hits in just 4 1/3 innings and has always been a contact-heavy pitcher, with a lifetime 5.9 strikeouts per nine innings.
Picks: Rockies +195 and Over 9.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Rockies +164, Total 9.6)
Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles
Throughout his career, Tanner Houck has had far better success on the road than at home, owning a lifetime 3.99 ERA overall compared to a 3.17 ERA at home. He has also allowed just 0.7 home runs per nine innings. Orioles starter Charlie Morton still has dominant strikeout stuff, posting more than nine strikeouts per nine innings in every season since 2016. Both teams should be able to limit each other’s offense with their bullpens—though it’s a small sample size, both entered this series with bullpen ERAs of 2.70 or better. The Orioles lineup is dealing with plenty of injuries, while Rafael Devers and others on the Red Sox are struggling early in the season.
Picks: Orioles -102 and Under 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Orioles -125, Total 8.4)
7:05 PM Eastern
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York Yankees
How much length Carlos Carrasco will give the Yankees in this start is uncertain, considering he pitched two innings of relief over the weekend against the Milwaukee Brewers, allowing three runs in that appearance. Since the beginning of the 2021 season, he owns a 5.36 ERA and a 4.66 FIP while allowing 1.5 home runs per nine innings. While Carrasco is unreliable, heavy bullpen usage might not be a bad thing for the Yankees, as their 3.62 bullpen ERA in 2023 was the second-best in the American League.
Diamondbacks starter Merrill Kelly is coming off a down 2024 season in which he made only 13 starts due to injury. He’ll look to return to his 2023 form, when he had a career-high 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings and a 3.29 ERA.
Picks: Diamondbacks -104 and Under 10 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Diamondbacks -123, Total 9.3)
7:40 PM Eastern
Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers starting pitcher Nestor Cortes is coming off about as bad a debut as a pitcher can have, allowing five home runs and eight total runs in just two innings against his former team, the New York Yankees. Throughout his career, he has struggled outside of Yankee Stadium, posting a 3.94 ERA in all other ballparks.
Nick Lodolo has pitched better than his career 4.46 ERA suggests, with a 4.20 FIP, but he has still allowed 1.3 home runs and three walks per nine innings. While the Reds are coming off back-to-back shutouts against the Texas Rangers, they’ll face a Brewers bullpen that has averaged the fifth-most innings pitched per game this season while posting an 8.89 ERA. However, the Milwaukee offense was sixth in the league in runs per game last season.
Picks: Brewers -108 and Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Brewers -131, Total 8.2)
