MLB Bullpen Betting Systems Update:
Another week of the 2026 MLB season has come and gone, and it’s time to update our bullpen systems records that are shared and tracked daily on the VSiN MLB Analytics Reports. To best summarize what has happened so far in the ’26 season with these systems, easiest has not proven best, and the correlation angles plus the IMPORTANCE OF PITCHING SYSTEM have continued to be our most reliable nuggets in the early going.
If there are some of you turning to the easiest system in hopes of saving time, there is a reason I caution that strategy in every one of these pieces I do. In sports betting, it’s very rare when success comes easily. I have in the past found the easiest system to be quite volatile, particularly early in the season. It gives a play on about every game and thus can go up or down quickly.
The Brewers’ struggles this past weekend are a good example of how things can go south quickly, particularly early in the season. Milwaukee was my top-rated bullpen as of this time last week. It was a rough week for that group, though, and getting swept at home by what continues to be my lowest-rated bullpen in the league (Washington) had a disastrous effect on several of my systems. That said, the specific angles I mentioned in my intro have continued to fare very well and produce a smaller and more refined set of plays each day, thus limiting the volatility. The Better Bulllpen Underdog system has also kept us in the game early, and for that reason, it is another one of my favorites to endorse.
Opposite of the Brewers’ struggles, of course, the Arizona Diamondbacks can be looked at as an example of how things can turn positively in a hurry too. Over the last seven days, I moved their bullpen rating a lofty 12 points in a positive direction. They have won six of their last eight games overall to get back to two games over .500 for the season. In that span, the bullpen went 29-1/3 innings, posting an ERA of 0.91 and a WHIP of 0.67. Prior to that, they had given up four or more runs collectively in three of eight games.
Keep in mind, however, that not everything about these bullpen ratings is qualified by statistics. I also have my own talent perception values and make adjustments for injuries. For instance, surely you have noticed how badly the Astros’ relief corps is performing minus injured Josh Hader. They currently rank dead last in the league in both bullpen ERA and K’s/9 innings. This will almost assuredly change when Hader returns, supposedly in the next couple of weeks.
Just a quick reminder that I like to include in these articles regularly. For those of you perhaps new to VSiN, and hence new to the MLB Bullpen Systems, they derive from my own fundamental belief that backing teams with better bullpen performance consistently over the course of a season will lead to profits, or at least minimize losses. It has done so every year I have shared the logic. It seems that even after many years of starting pitchers lasting fewer and fewer innings each season on average, oddsmakers are still predicating their lines on lineups and starting pitchers. In many cases, the relief pitchers are almost ignored. This is where the value is derived from if you have a solid and reliable set of bullpen ratings, systems, and even score simulations. I have all of this and share it with VSiN subscribers every day throughout the season.
Without further ado, here are the various system records through the first few weeks of the 2026 season that we will be tracking every day throughout. Note that on occasion, I will add or delete systems based upon my own logic or regression analysis:
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
– For the 2025 regular season, better rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage 19% or higher and a starting pitcher edge of at least 20 went 1,138-1,004 for +0.15 units and a ROI of 0%. For 2026, this easy system is off to a rocky start, 94-98 for -37.47 units, and an ROI of -19.5%. Hopefully, this is just a bad start until things start to normalize more as we get deeper into the season.
Although I always remind readers that easiest isn’t always best, the nearly dead even returns on 2,142 games last year validate why I believe bullpens are so fundamental to baseball handicapping. That said, I still prefer discernment in my baseball wagering to provide for even bigger edges. This is one of the main reasons we produce such a multi-faceted Analytics Report each day. Part of that report is the MLB Bullpen Systems you’ll see below. This is where you should start your handicapping routine each day.
These next angles were new to the bullpen analysis around mid-season 2025. I named them CORRELATION systems because they rely 100% on the relationship between the Steve Makinen Ratings of the starting pitcher and team bullpens. Here are the early ‘26 season records of these four angles we are now regularly tracking and will continue to do so into the year:
1) Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in ‘25. This represents an ROI of -17.1%, and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For ’26, these teams are 0-2 for -2.13 units and an ROI of -106.5%.
2) Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 6-9 for -4.38 units and a ROI of -29.2%.
3) Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the 2025 season. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. For 2026, after a great last week, these teams are off to a 34-19 start for +5.7 units and an ROI of 10.8%.
4) Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in ‘25. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 15-20 for +4.53 units. I don’t expect this to last long.
** IMPORTANCE OF PITCHING SYSTEM, BULLPEN & STARTER **
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating and starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the ’25 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and a ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For ’26, the success is continuing as these teams are off to a strong 31-16 start for +7.2 units and an ROI of +15.3%.
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.28 units. The 2026 record so far is 10-2 for +5.38 units, as big favorites are off to an unusually strong start overall. I would expect this to cool.
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a three-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. The 2026 teams meeting this criteria are 14-9 but for -8.55 units so far.
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle has been a lucrative fade system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the 2023-25 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season. The 2026 teams are off to a 9-5 start for -3.19 units. The ROI on that is -22.8%.
Better bullpen underdog teams are typically solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick em’). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in ’25, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The ’26 season is off to a conservative start, 25-29 for -0.68 units.
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 705-754 record, for +23.82 units (ROI 1.6%) in the full 2024-25 seasons. I believe this angle has some merit in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For 2025, these teams struggled out of the gate, but wound up 377-404 for +13.98 units. The 2026 record is 23-26 for –1.06 units thus far.
Worse bullpen teams usually struggle in extending winning streaks I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-‘25 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 19-21 start for +1.94 units. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the ‘26 results so far show a record of 4-11 for -6.77 units and an ROI -45.1%.
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, but it is off to a strangely fast start, 13-9 for +7.6 units.
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I gave it a chance in 2025, and it recovered nicely, going 259-194 for +23.34 units (ROI 5.2%). It will be on the 2026 Bullpen System Reports once again and is off to an atrocious start of 11-17 for -14.75 units as streaks of both sorts are being ended quickly.
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 345-258 for +35.06 units over the last three regular seasons. The 2026 results so far show teams qualifying for it with a record of 9-14 for -11.59 units.
Again, these simple angles can be qualified each day by utilizing the MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page on VSiN.com or easily found on the MLB Analytics Report. Keep in mind, the bullpen systems are just one small part of a very in-depth handicapping library available to readers.
These are the current key bullpen stats that have accumulated in the 2026 regular season, followed by my Beginning of Season 2026 Bullpen Power Ratings adjusted by me this week for any key additions or subtractions to the rosters. Along with that, I’ve listed the biggest upward/downward BP ratings teams from last week to this.
Key Bullpen Stats (2026 regular season stats through games of Sunday 4/12)
Top 5 Bullpen ERAs
1. ATLANTA: 1.95
2. SEATTLE: 2.1
3. TEXAS: 2.36
4. MIAMI: 2.81
5. CINCINNATI: 2.89
Worst 5 Bullpen ERAs
30. HOUSTON: 6.75
29. TAMPA BAY: 6.35
28. WASHINGTON: 5.78
27. KANSAS CITY: 5.47
26. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 5.35
Top 5 Bullpen WHIPs
1. ATLANTA: 0.89
2. SEATTLE: 1.09
3. PHILADELPHIA: 1.09
4. NY METS: 1.17
5. SAN DIEGO: 1.17
Worst 5 Bullpen WHIPs
30. HOUSTON: 1.74
29. MINNESOTA: 1.66
28. TAMPA BAY: 1.55
27. WASHINGTON: 1.55
26. KANSAS CITY: 1.55
Top 5 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
1. PITTSBURGH: 11.06
2. MIAMI: 11.04
3. TORONTO: 10.77
4. CLEVELAND: 10.77
5. HOUSTON: 10.25
Worst 5 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
30. ST LOUIS: 6.79
29. WASHINGTON: 6.85
28. TEXAS: 7.54
27. TAMPA BAY: 7.62
26. NY METS: 7.67
Top 5 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
1. PHILADELPHIA: 0.78
2. ARIZONA: 0.79
3. BALTIMORE: 0.94
4. ATLANTA: 1.12
5. MIAMI: 1.15
Worst 5 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
30. HOUSTON: 2.16
29. SAN FRANCISCO: 1.9
28. MINNESOTA: 1.74
27. MILWAUKEE: 1.7
26. PITTSBURGH: 1.69
I have used a manual process of analyzing daily box scores to build my Bullpen Power Ratings. In most cases, the end number is a reflection of the stats listed above, with great consideration also given to overall talent, injuries, and momentum.
Biggest Movers in SM Bullpen Power Ratings since last week Monday (4/6):
Biggest upward movers (PR points)
1. ARIZONA: +12 points
2. ATHLETICS: +9
3. MIAMI: +7
3. TORONTO: +7
5. BALTIMORE: +6
Biggest downward movers (PR points)
1. HOUSTON: -9 points
2. MILWAUKEE: -7
3. PITTSBURGH: -5
3. COLORADO: -5
5. LA DODGERS: -4
5. BOSTON: -4
5. WASHINGTON: -4
Steve’s Current Bullpen Ratings/Ranks (as of 4/13)
Rank – Team – Bullpen PR
1. SAN DIEGO: 25
2. SEATTLE: 24
3. ATLANTA: 23
4. LA DODGERS: 21
5. MILWAUKEE: 20
6. TEXAS: 17
7. TORONTO: 16
8. MIAMI: 16
9. CINCINNATI: 16
10. BOSTON: 14
11. NY YANKEES: 13
12. CHICAGO CUBS: 13
13. DETROIT: 12
14. CLEVELAND: 12
15. NY METS: 11
16. ATHLETICS: 11
17. PHILADELPHIA: 10
18. BALTIMORE: 9
19. ARIZONA: 8
20. PITTSBURGH: 8
21. KANSAS CITY: 4
22. LA ANGELS: 2
23. SAN FRANCISCO: -1
24. TAMPA BAY: -2
25. ST LOUIS: -2
26. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: -4
27. COLORADO: -6
28. HOUSTON: -7
29. MINNESOTA: -8
30. WASHINGTON: -20
These are sorted first by bullpen ranking and then by overall team power rating.
