MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Thursday, August 21.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and our new tools from Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
4:10 PM Eastern
San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres
Padres starting pitcher Dylan Cease has had a rough season with a 4.61 ERA, but his 3.58 fielding independent and 11.6 strikeouts per nine innings point toward positive regression. The bullpen behind him has the best ERA in baseball at 2.95, while the Giants are second at 3.29. Giants starting pitcher Justin Verlander has struggled with a 1–9 record, but his 4.23 ERA and 3.95 fielding independent are more respectable, allowing one home run and three walks per nine innings.
Pick: San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres Under 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 7.8)
7:15 PM Eastern
Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles
Orioles starting pitcher Brandon Young took a no-hitter into the seventh inning in his previous start against a struggling Astros team that has now lost four straight games. For the season, though, Young has a 5.68 ERA with 1.7 home runs and 3.4 walks allowed per nine innings. He is backed by a lineup that ranks eighth in home scoring at five runs per game but is hurt by a bullpen ranked 25th with a 4.72 ERA. Astros starting pitcher Jason Alexander enters with a 4.74 ERA, 7.2 strikeouts, and 3.1 walks per nine innings this season.
Pick: Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles Over 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 9.6)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
Yankees starting pitcher Luis Gil has dealt with command issues both this season and throughout his career, averaging 5.1 walks per nine innings this season and 4.8 for his career. He carries a 5.14 ERA this year and faces a Red Sox lineup that ranks fourth in scoring with nearly five runs per game. Red Sox starter Lucas Giolito owns a 3.63 ERA on the season with 1.3 home runs and 2.9 walks allowed per nine innings, but over his past 12 starts has posted an impressive 2.34 ERA.
Picks: Red Sox Moneyline +120 and Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Red Sox +116 and Total 8.6)
7:35 PM Eastern
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Cardinals starting pitcher Sonny Gray has struggled recently, posting a 4.30 ERA this season with 1.2 home runs allowed per nine innings. Over his past six starts, he’s given up 28 total runs, resulting in a 5.23 ERA, and on the road he’s been even worse with 1.7 home runs per nine innings allowed. Rays starter Joe Boyle carries a 4.68 ERA with 1.7 home runs and five walks allowed per nine innings, but in a small home sample of just 15 innings, he has a sparkling 0.60 ERA.
Pick: Rays Moneyline +105 (Greg’s Handicap: Rays -118)
