MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Wednesday, August 27.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and our new tools from Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
1:10 PM Eastern
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians
Guardians starting pitcher Slade Cecconi has struggled of late, allowing at least three runs in four of his past five starts. Overall, he has a 4.41 ERA and 4.95 fielding independent with 7.4 strikeouts and 1.8 home runs allowed per nine innings. Rays starting pitcher Drew Rasmussen has been impressive, allowing just five earned runs in his past five starts and owning a 2.62 ERA this season, but his 3.49 fielding independent points toward incoming regression. The Rays lineup ranks 12th in scoring with over 4.5 runs per game.
Pick: Rays vs. Guardians Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 8.4)
7:10 PM Eastern
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets
Mets starting pitcher Nolan McLean has been highly effective in his first two starts, allowing just two runs across 12 1/3 innings. However, he has a history of command issues, averaging four walks per nine innings at the minor league level this season. He’s supported by a bullpen that has a 4.54 ERA since August 1. Phillies starting pitcher Taijuan Walker has been much improved this season, posting a 3.44 ERA with 1.4 home runs allowed per nine innings. He’s backed by a lineup that ranks ninth in scoring with over 4.7 runs per game.
Picks: Phillies Moneyline +135 and Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Phillies +119 and Total 8.6)
7:40 PM Eastern
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers starting pitcher Quinn Priester has put together a strong season, though his 11–2 record may be a bit misleading. He pitches to a lot of contact with 7.3 strikeouts and 3.2 walks per nine innings, carrying a 3.44 ERA with a 4.36 fielding independent. He’s supported by a lineup that ranks third in scoring with 5.1 runs per game. He faces Diamondbacks starting pitcher Ryne Nelson, who owns a 3.63 ERA with one home run and 2.4 walks per nine innings, but is backed by a bullpen that ranks 27th in ERA at 4.77.
Picks: Brewers Moneyline -134 and Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Brewers -172 and Total 8.8)
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox
White Sox starting pitcher Aaron Civale has had a bumpy season, posting a 5.02 ERA with 1.3 home runs and 3.4 walks allowed per nine innings. Still, he’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in nine of his past 16 starts. He faces a Royals lineup that ranks 28th in scoring with 3.8 runs per game, while the White Sox are 26th in run production with fewer than four runs per game. Royals starting pitcher Ryan Bergert owns a 2.79 ERA with 8.7 strikeouts and 1.1 home runs allowed per nine innings.
Picks: Royals Moneyline -120 and Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Royals -149 and Total 7.8)
8:10 PM Eastern
Colorado Rockies vs. Houston Astros
Astros starting pitcher Framber Valdez enters Wednesday’s start struggling, having allowed at least four runs in each of his past four outings. Overall, he has a 3.32 ERA and 3.08 fielding independent with just 0.5 home runs allowed per nine innings. He faces a Rockies lineup that ranks last in the league in both road on-base percentage and road run scoring with just 2.9 runs per game. Rockies starting pitcher Chase Dollander has had a rough year with a 6.91 ERA, 1.8 home runs, and 4.4 walks allowed per nine innings, though his ERA drops to 3.95 with 1.3 home runs per nine innings allowed in certain stretches.
Pick: Rockies vs. Astros Under 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 7.1)
9:45 PM Eastern
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants
Cubs starting pitcher Colin Rea has allowed two runs or fewer in each of his past four starts, posting a 3.96 ERA with a 4.61 fielding independent, 6.6 strikeouts, and 1.3 home runs allowed per nine innings. He faces a Giants lineup that ranks last in the National League in home scoring with fewer than 3.6 runs per game. Giants starting pitcher Carson Whisenhunt has a 4.91 ERA through his first four career starts but has allowed 2.5 home runs and 4.4 walks per nine innings, producing a 6.88 fielding independent.
Picks: Cubs Moneyline -120 and Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Cubs -144 and Total 8.5)
