MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Sunday, March 30.
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1:05 PM Eastern
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami Marlins
The Miami Marlins currently lack power in their lineup, with their starting lineup on Friday having a career 45 home runs between all nine players. Pirates starting pitcher Andrew Heaney’s biggest issue has always been allowing home runs, with a home runs per nine innings rate of at least 1.3 in 10 of his 11 MLB seasons. Max Meyer has shown great flashes of potential in the minor leagues, but has lacked success in his calls to the MLB level to this point. He is aided in this matchup by a Pirates offense that is relatively the same from last season, where they were 24th in the league in runs per game.
Pick: Marlins +105 and Under 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Marlins -142 and Total 7.6)
1:37 PM Eastern
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays
While Tomoyuki Sugano is an unknown in the United States, the 35-year-old will make his MLB pitching debut on Sunday after posting a 15-3 record with a 1.67 ERA in the Nippon Baseball League and a 3.00 ERA in Spring Training. Blue Jays starting pitcher Chris Bassitt should show better command this season after issuing 3.7 walks per nine innings last season, his most since 2016, which was a culprit for his underwhelming 2024 season. He registered just 0.9 home runs allowed and 8.8 strikeouts per nine innings.
Pick: Under 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 8.1)
1:40 PM Eastern
Colorado Rockies vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Though the 3-10 record on the surface would not indicate it, Rockies starting pitcher Ryan Feltner was much improved last season, registering a 4.15 fielding independent and a career-low 2.9 walks per nine innings. Rays starter Taj Bradley has flashed nasty stuff with 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings in his two MLB seasons. He has had an issue giving up the deep ball, allowing 1.7 home runs per nine innings, but is helped by the Rockies offense was the lowest-scoring offense in the league away from home last season.
Pick: Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 7.7)
2:10 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago White Sox
While the White Sox were historically bad last season, it is not as if the Angels were battling for a division title themselves, finishing third-worst in the league last year in runs per games. White Sox starter Davis Martin pitched much better than last season’s 0-5 record would indicate. After missing the 2023 season due to injury, he had 8.5 strikeouts per nine innings while allowing 0.9 home runs per nine innings. Angels starter Jack Kochanowicz allows as much contact as any pitcher in the league, recording just 3.4 strikeouts per nine innings last season. He did not see much of an uptick on his whiff rate in Spring Training.
Pick: White Sox Moneyline +123 (Greg’s Handicap White Sox +104)
2:35 PM Eastern
Boston Red Sox vs. Texas Rangers
At age 37, Jacob deGrom may not quite be the guy that he was a few seasons ago, But being healthy to open the season is massive considering he owns a 2.07 ERA and 2.12 fielding independent since the start of the 2018 season. Richard Fitts is coming off of a solid Spring Training. Additionally, Fitts received four starts at the end of the 2024 season and looked up to the task with a 1.74 ERA. The Rangers lineup was underwhelming a season ago, ranking 18th in runs per game at home last season.
Pick: Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 7.8 Runs)
7:10 PM Eastern
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres
AJ Smith-Shawver has made just seven career appearances at the MLB level, but showed good stuff in Spring Training with 11.3 strikeouts per nine innings and is a young 22-year old with upside. Throughout his career, Nick Pivetta has given up too much hard contact, never allowing fewer than 1.3 home runs per nine innings in any of his eight career MLB seasons. The Braves also back Smith-Shawver with a bullpen that was second in the league in fielding independent and second in ERA last season.
Pick: Braves Moneyline +114 (Greg’s Handicap Braves -107)
