Studying 2025 NFL Quality Wins/Losses to Predict 2026 Results:
With the NFL schedule release tonight, there will be endless dissecting of it in order to find advantages/disadvantages for all 32 teams. Many people will use this 17-game set to predict how teams will fare in 2026. For as much as I also love looking ahead to the fall and the big games on the schedule, personally, I always feel that the degree by which a team will improve or decline in any given season is determined by other factors, and I prove it through the data that I study each spring/summer.
Over the last two weeks, I’ve studied the draft, the new coaches, and the new starting quarterbacks for the various franchises. As I continue to ramp up my offseason NFL work, the next couple of pieces will be to dig into a subject I call Changeover Systems. I refer to them as such because they are data angles that take records and/or statistics from one season to provide insight as to which teams might be better or worse in the follow-up season. These are always very popular articles, and they wind up being a major factor in what goes into my Regular Season Win Total Wagers.
This article is often extremely predictive. Perhaps the highlight of this analysis came during the Buccaneers’ breakout 2020 season, when many of the most optimistic systems predicted they would improve greatly. All the Bucs did was win their first-ever Super Bowl title. In 2022, the predictions were again strong all over, with major improvements for teams like Seattle, Minnesota, and the Giants being cited. Then, in 2023, these systems called for severe drops from those same Vikings and Giants, with the Chargers sprinkled in a lot as well. All of those teams won at least three fewer games that season. The 2024 highlight teams were Washington and Dallas, and both performed according to the potential improve/decline trends, respectively. And finally, last season, there were multiple angles suggesting steep drops by teams like Kansas City, Washington, and Detroit, and both dropped by at least six wins! I was able to cash in on all these predictions, based heavily in the Changeover Systems I will unveil now and in part 2 next week.
This exercise continues my routine in getting ready for the upcoming NFL season, and in it, I go through the list of won/lost and statistical traits that I feel are most important to determining which NFL teams have the best chance of getting better or worse and by how much. As I noted earlier, I will be doing this series in two parts. In this first half, I will analyze the quality and quantity of teams’ won-lost records using various measures. Next week, I will dig into several key statistical angles that typically lead to significant improvement or decline.
Before digging into the data, however, here’s a quick explanation as to why I feel these findings prove to be so impactful. I have always felt that the NFL is unlike any other sporting league in that teams can make quick, definitive turnarounds from year-to-year, both positively and negatively. First-to-worst, and worst-to-first are not unusual terms, and unlike the NBA or NHL, you can see seasons where more than half of the teams that qualify for the playoffs are different from the prior campaign, although this trend has actually lessened in the last few seasons. As such, it greatly benefits the bettor to know the traits that lead teams to improve or decline quickly. What is the typical resume of a team that improves greatly from one season to the next? Those who can find the answers to these questions can take advantage of not only the futures wagers and season win totals available prior to a season, but also the point spreads in the early weeks of the season before those setting the odds can catch up.
Read through the findings over the next couple of weeks and make your own assessments of the teams you feel might not be what we saw from them in 2025. Then factor in the coaching changes, free agent transactions each team made, along with their draft results, and head to the betting window. I will share my own personal conclusions, along with my updated 2026 NFL Power Ratings, in the next couple of weeks.
Systems of teams that had an unusually high or low total of close wins in the prior season
In 2019, Seattle’s 10 “close wins” (eight points or less) were the most by any team in the NFL over the prior 24 seasons. Since then, three teams have reached 11 in that regard: the 2022 Vikings, the 2024 Chiefs, and most recently, the 2025 Broncos. The key number to look for in “close wins is eight; however, as of the last 44 teams that had at least that many in a season, only six have improved the next season. The average DECLINE of the other 38 teams was 3.4 wins per season. There are two teams qualifying for this angle in 2026.
Teams affected in 2026: Denver, Philadelphia
The last 10 seasons have shown another trend against teams that win a lot of close games. In that span, there have been 81 teams that won 6+ games by 8 points or less. Of that group, only 21 have improved the next season, with the other 60 DROPPING OFF by 3.1 wins per year.
Teams affected in 2026: Carolina, Chicago, Denver, Houston, Jacksonville, LA Chargers, New England, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Seattle, Tampa Bay
Systems of teams that had an unusually high or low total of close losses the prior season
Since 1993, 48 teams have lost 8+ games in “close loss” format, that being one possession or less (eight points). Of those, 41 improved the next season, with a combined average IMPROVEMENT of a hefty 4.02 wins per season! Last year, two teams met the criteria, and both improved, including the Jaguars, who went from 4 to 13 wins.
Teams affected in 2026: Arizona, Kansas City
There have been 145 teams over the last 22 years that went into the next season after having lost at least six games by one score or less (<=8 points). Of these, 104 teams IMPROVED their won-lost record the next season, including 56 of them by 4+ wins. The average improvement of the 104 teams was 3.95 wins per season. Of the 34 teams that qualified for this angle in 2023-25, only six teams got worse. You can pretty much count on four or five of these following six teams improving nicely this fall. Can you see any of them making a 4+ game bump? The Cardinals, Chiefs, and Giants would be the foremost contenders to do so.
Teams affected in 2026: Arizona, Cleveland, Indianapolis, Kansas City, NY Giants, Tampa Bay
Systems of teams that had an unusually high or low total of blowout wins the prior season
Since 1997, there have been 74 teams that record 8+ double-digit wins in a season. Only nine of them improved the next season. The average win DECLINE of the other 65 other teams that qualified was -3.64. There were two teams that met this criteria a year ago, and they experienced completely different fates, with Denver improving by four games and Detroit dropping by six.
Teams affected in 2026: LA Rams, Seattle
Over the last 29 seasons, there have been 51 teams that have recorded at least five blowout wins (20+ points) in a season. Of them, only seven were able to improve their won-lost record the next season. The other 44 combined for an average win DECLINE of –3.32. Interestingly, only the defending Super Bowl champs qualify for this angle this season.
Team affected in 2026: Seattle
There have been 38 teams over the last 31 seasons that won seven or more games, with ONE OR FEWER by double-digit margins. This is typically a DECLINE situation, as only 12 of the 38 improved the next season. The other 25 combined for a average drop off of DECLINE of 1.7 wins per season.
Team affected in 2026: Carolina
Ironically, teams that won five or fewer games, NONE by double-digit margins, have shown significant improvement in the follow-up campaign. In fact, since 1993, there have been 56 such teams, and 53 of them IMPROVED the next season, by an average of 3.92 wins per season, including one by as many as 10 games. The Browns qualified last year and went from 3-14 to 5-12.
Team affected in 2026: NY Jets
Systems of teams that had an unusually high or low total of blowout losses the prior season
There have been 69 teams since 2001 that have lost seven games or more in a season but suffered ZERO blowout losses (20+ points). These teams have shown a tendency for IMPROVEMENT, with only 20 of the 69 dropping off. The other 47 improved by 2.14 wins per season. There is a list of four teams qualifying in 2026, including Pittsburgh, who does it for a second straight season.
Teams affected in 2026: Detroit, Green Bay, Kansas City, NY Giants, Pittsburgh
As another key sign of how teams can quickly improve from a dreadful season, over the last 32 seasons, there have been 81 teams that have lost at least eight games in a season by double-digit margins. Of those, 61 IMPROVED the next season, and by an average of 3.64 wins per year, including the Browns (+2) and Panthers (+3) a season ago.
Teams affected in 2026: Las Vegas, NY Jets, Tennessee
Since 1994, there have been 96 double-digit win teams that suffered at least three of their losses by double-digit margins. Only 23 improved and almost half of those teams (46) DROPPED dramatically the next season, by at least three wins. The average drop for the 65 teams that did DECLINE was 3.88 wins per season. However, one of the teams that qualified for this system last season was Seattle, and the Seahawks went on to win the Super Bowl.
Teams affected in 2026: LA Chargers, Pittsburgh, San Francisco
Systems of teams based upon their playoff results from the prior season
Only three of the last 32 teams that lost in the Super Bowl improved their won-lost record in the follow-up season, with an average win DECLINE of 3.62 per season. Those that had 7+ double-digit wins in that prior SB losing season declined by 4.2 wins on average.
Team affected in 2026: New England (had 7 double-digit wins)
Alternatively, the last 32 teams that won the Super Bowl were far better off in maintaining success, with only a 1.25 win DROP OFF per season, boasting an average won-lost record of 10.8-5.2. Philadelphia was 11-6 a year ago, following up their prior year title. Only three of those 32 teams finished under .500 the next season, including the Rams of 2022, who went 5-12.
Team affected in 2026: Seattle
NONE of the 46 teams in the last 29 years that won 13 games or more and DIDN’T make the Super Bowl improved their won-lost record the following season and only four equaled that prior win total. The average win DECLINE was 3.67 per season! The three teams that qualified last year, Buffalo, Detroit, and Minnesota, all got worse.
Teams affected in 2026: Denver, Jacksonville
Systems of teams whose won-lost records are trending
NONE of the 12 teams since 2000 that had won fewer games than the prior season in three straight seasons got worse that next season, and their won-lost record actually improved by an average of 4.2 wins per season!
Teams affected in 2026: NONE
Similarly, there is a strong improvement potential for teams that won fewer OR EQUAL games than the prior season in three straight seasons. Since 1997, there have been 68 such teams, and only 16 got worse. The average improvement for the other 52 was 3.6 wins per season!
Teams affected in 2026: Cincinnati, Dallas, NY Jets, Tennessee
Since 2002, only one of the 20 teams that had recorded improved records in three straight seasons continued that trend. The average DROP for the declining group was 4.53 wins per season, with an average season win total of 6.5.
Team affected in 2026: Denver
Similarly, there is a strong decline potential for teams that won more OR EQUAL games than the prior season in three straight seasons. Since ’05, there have been 54 such teams and only 11 got better. The average DECLINE for the other 43 was 3.4 wins per season!
Teams affected in 2026: Atlanta, Denver, Houston, LA Rams, Pittsburgh, Seattle
Of the 37 teams since 2005 that won 6+ games fewer than the prior season, 33 rebounded to IMPROVE their won-lost record in the follow-up campaign, by an average of 4.0 wins per season!
Team affected in 2026: Detroit, Kansas City, Washington
Only five of the last 54 teams since 1998 that won 6+ more games than the prior season improved in the follow-up campaign, with an average season win DROP of 3.4 from the other 49 teams.
Teams affected in 2026: Chicago, Jacksonville, New England, San Francisco
