Matt Youmans – First 2027 Super Bowl Futures Wager:
With his extraordinary abilities to cheat near-certain defeat, fight off multiple adversaries and overcome the odds, Patrick Mahomes has been known as the quarterback version of Superman for most of his NFL career. All of that changed last year when the losses piled up and he suffered a season-ending knee injury. Still, it would surprise no one if Mahomes is on the field for the Chiefs’ season opener in September.
It has been more than five months since Mahomes went down near the end of a Week 15 loss to the Chargers on December 14. Mahomes had surgery the next day to repair tears of the ACL and LCL in his left knee. Around the time Mahomes posted a video from the golf course on May 15, Kansas City general manager Brett Veach said Mahomes is “way ahead of schedule” in his rehab. He’s got about four months to transition from golf to full-contact football and surely plans to start when the Chiefs host the Broncos on Monday, September 14.
It’s unrealistic to expect Mahomes will resemble his normal self and run around with reckless abandon right away. That will come again in time, and the Chiefs have time. After opening with home games against the Broncos and Colts, the Chiefs will hit the road to Miami and Las Vegas prior to an early bye in Week 5. Kansas City should be 3-1 or 4-0 going into the bye.
It takes a leap of faith to say Mahomes will return to form and the Chiefs will do the same, but that’s a part of gambling. An injury to a star quarterback can wreck a team’s season and a futures wager in an instant, something Joe Burrow and the Bengals know all too well.
Kansas City won nine consecutive AFC West titles from 2016 to 2024, when coach Andy Reid’s teams averaged 12.4 regular-season wins, made seven straight AFC Championship Game appearances and won three Super Bowls. Last year, the Chiefs’ luck was mostly bad, close-game regression hit, Mahomes limped away and the result was a 6-11 record.
So does this set up for a Kansas City bounce-back season and a buy-low opportunity? I’m betting it does. Instead of being among the Super Bowl favorites, the Chiefs are tied for the fifth choice on the board at 15-1 odds. Circa Sports lists the Rams (+720), Bills (+950), Seahawks (+965) and Ravens (12-1) above Kansas City, which has the same odds as the Chargers and 49ers.
Mahomes’ return from injury aside, the Chiefs need to be better across the board and they should be after key offseason additions and a strong draft. The team signed running back Kenneth Walker, the Super Bowl MVP for Seattle, and former Baltimore safety Alohi Gilman as free agents. After trading All-Pro cornerback Trent McDuffie to the Rams in March, the Chiefs drafted LSU corner Mansoor Delane sixth overall to fill the void. The pass rush must improve around veteran tackle Chris Jones and end George Karlaftis, and that area was addressed when Clemson tackle Peter Woods was picked late in the first round and Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas was selected in the second round.
Steve Spagnuolo is arguably the top defensive coordinator in the league, and there are few concerns on that side of the ball. There are concerns about the depth on the offensive line and at wide receiver, but there is plenty of talent there and I trust Reid and Veach have most of it figured out.
Last summer, I bet Denver to win the division and played the Chiefs Under 11.5 wins. The Broncos face a tougher schedule this season while quarterback Bo Nix also returns from an injury. The Chargers, according to analyst Warren Sharp, were “hurt most by the NFL schedule” by getting dealt minus-24 days in net rest and seven games with a rest disadvantage.
Two years ago, my first Super Bowl futures wager after the NFL Draft was on Philadelphia at 15-1 odds, and the Eagles cashed by crushing the Chiefs. Last year, my first post-draft bet was a 30-1 play on the Rams, who came up short in Seattle in the NFC title game. This time, I’m rolling with a rehabbed Mahomes and a motivated team seeking redemption.
Best Bets: Chiefs to win Super Bowl (15-1) and to win AFC West (+180).
