MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Wednesday, May 28.
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1:10 PM Eastern
Boston Red Sox vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Red Sox starting pitcher Brayan Bello owns a 4.08 ERA through seven starts this season, but that’s paired with a 4.88 fielding independent pitching (FIP), 6.9 strikeouts, and 5.1 walks per nine innings. Brewers starter Freddy Peralta boasts a 2.55 ERA, though his 3.89 FIP raises some red flags. He’s striking out a career-low nine batters per nine innings and issuing 3.5 walks per nine, all while being supported by a bullpen that ranks 24th in ERA at 4.74.
Pick: Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.4)
4:10 PM Eastern
Miami Marlins vs. San Diego Padres
Padres starter Kyle Hart is making his first appearance since April 23, carrying a 6.00 ERA and having allowed six home runs over five starts. Marlins starter Sandy Alcantara owns an 8.08 ERA, surrendering 1.5 home runs and 4.8 walks per nine innings. He’s supported by a bullpen with a 4.86 ERA—25th in the league.
Picks: Padres Run Line -1.5 +130 and Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Padres -1.5 -108 and Total 8.8)
6:35 PM Eastern
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Baltimore Orioles
Orioles starter Cade Povich holds a 4.86 ERA with 1.7 home runs and 3.3 walks allowed per nine innings, and he’s backed by a bullpen ranked 27th with a 5.37 ERA. Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas has surrendered just five total runs over his last six starts, but with just 5.4 strikeouts per nine innings, his high-contact profile could lead to trouble sooner rather than later.
Pick: Cardinals Moneyline +110 (Greg’s Handicap: Cardinals -122)
6:45 PM Eastern
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies starter Zack Wheeler has been dominant, posting a 2.42 ERA with 11.2 strikeouts and just 1.8 walks per nine innings. However, he’s backed by a bullpen ranked 23rd with a 4.61 ERA. Braves starter AJ Smith-Shawver holds a 3.67 ERA while issuing 4.3 walks per nine. Notably, he has a 1.45 ERA at home but a 5.48 ERA on the road.
Pick: Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.1)
7:40 PM Eastern
Cincinnati Reds vs. Kansas City Royals
Royals starter Noah Cameron has allowed just two runs over 19 2/3 innings, though his 3.90 FIP suggests some regression. He averages 6.5 strikeouts and 2.8 walks per nine innings. Reds starter Hunter Greene owns a 2.54 ERA with 11.4 strikeouts per nine but gives up 1.4 home runs per nine. He’s backed by a Reds lineup averaging 4.85 runs per game on the road—seventh-best in the league.
Picks: Reds Moneyline -113 and Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Reds -132 and Total 8.2)
9:40 PM Eastern
Washington Nationals vs. Seattle Mariners
Mariners starter George Kirby is coming off a rough outing in Houston, where he gave up five runs in 3 2/3 innings. He’ll look to return to form at home, where he owns a career 2.99 ERA with just 0.8 home runs allowed per nine—compared to a 3.96 ERA and over 1.1 home runs per nine on the road. Nationals starter Trevor Williams has given up at least four runs in each of his last five starts, but his 6.39 ERA is due for regression, supported by a more respectable 4.29 FIP. He’s allowing 1.3 home runs and 2.7 walks per nine innings.
Pick: Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 7.8)
