MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Saturday, May 3.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits.
Top MLB Resources:
1:05 PM Eastern
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees
Yankees starting pitcher Clarke Schmidt has had a tough start to the season with a 5.52 ERA through his first three starts, but he’s been solid at home—allowing four runs across 10 2/3 innings in two starts. Rays starter Zack Littell owns a 5.03 ERA himself, but has given up three runs or fewer in three straight outings. The Rays also back him up with a bullpen that has a 2.90 ERA, ranking fifth in the league.
Pick: Under 9.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.6)
2:10 PM Eastern
Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox
Astros starter Hunter Brown has been dominant in his last four starts, allowing just one run over 25 innings. He’ll face a White Sox lineup that entered Friday 27th in runs per game at home (3.7). The Astros have struggled offensively as well, scoring just 3.25 runs per game on the road, which ranks 23rd. White Sox starter Davis Martin has allowed zero or one earned run in three of his last four starts, with a 3.26 ERA on the season.
Pick: Under 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 7.3)
4:05 PM Eastern
Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants
Rockies starter Bradley Blalovk has been thrust into the rotation after mostly pitching in long relief. He has a career 6.69 ERA, with 5.5 strikeouts and 5.3 walks per nine innings across 10 MLB appearances. Giants starter Jordan Hicks faces a Rockies lineup that entered Friday averaging a league-low 2.2 runs per game on the road. Hicks has struggled himself, allowing five or more runs in three of his last four starts with a 6.12 ERA. However, his 3.67 FIP and just two home runs allowed in six starts suggest some positive regression is due.
Picks: Giants Run Line -1.5 (-110) and Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.3)
6:05 PM Eastern
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies starter Aaron Nola owns a rough 5.40 ERA, but his 4.29 FIP suggests better days ahead. He’s also historically better at home, with a career 3.26 ERA in Philadelphia versus 4.22 on the road. Diamondbacks starter Brandon Pfaadt has allowed one run or fewer in three of his last four starts, sporting a 2.78 ERA and just 1.5 walks per nine innings. The Phillies lineup surprisingly ranked just 23rd in home runs per at-bat entering Friday.
Pick: Under 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.7)
7:10 PM Eastern
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers starter José Quintana has been impressive with a 1.14 ERA and four wins in four starts. Still, with just 5.7 strikeouts per nine innings, some regression may be looming due to the high contact rate. Cubs starter Jameson Taillon isn’t missing many bats either—seven strikeouts per nine with a 4.01 ERA and 1.3 home runs allowed per nine. Both bullpens have struggled: the Cubs entered the series 23rd in bullpen ERA (4.64), and the Brewers 27th (4.90).
Picks: Brewers Moneyline -108 and Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: Brewers -132, Total: 8.6)
7:15 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves
Braves starter Spencer Schwellenbach has had a solid start to 2025 despite allowing at least three runs in each of his past three outings. He holds a 2.87 ERA and 3.25 FIP, allowing only one home run and 1.4 walks per nine innings. Dodgers starter Roki Sasaki has held opponents to three runs or fewer in all six starts this year. After walking nine batters in his MLB debut, he’s issued two or fewer walks in three of his last four outings. The Braves lineup entered the series ranked just 16th in runs per game.
Pick: Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.2)
9:38 PM Eastern
Detroit Tigers vs. Los Angeles Angels
Tigers starter Jack Flaherty has been solid with a 3.34 ERA and 10.6 strikeouts per nine innings, though he’s struggled with the long ball—allowing 1.4 home runs per nine. He faces an Angels lineup that ranks second in home runs per at-bat at home. Angels starter Kyle Hendricks, on the other hand, has been rough, allowing a 6.65 ERA and 6.02 FIP, along with 4.7 walks and 1.6 home runs per nine innings.
Pick: Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.7)
