Today we wrap up the work week with a loaded 14 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
Become a VSiN Pro subscriber today and get a full year for just $199 PLUS a copy of The Everything Guide to Sports Betting by Josh Appelbaum >> Go here and use promo code BOOK to sign up.
7:10 p.m. ET: Minnesota Twins at Tampa Bay Rays (-130, 7.5)
The Twins (12-13) just dropped two of three against the Mets, losing yesterday’s series finale 10-8 as -105 road dogs. Similarly, the Rays (13-11) just lost two of three against the Reds but avoided the sweep, winning the series finale 6-1 as -140 home favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Twins start righty Taj Bradley (3-0, 1.63 ERA) and the Rays counter with fellow righty Drew Rasmussen (1-0, 2.75 ERA).
This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a -120 home favorite and Minnesota a +100 road dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Rays at a cheap chalk price, driving Tampa Bay up from -120 to -130.
At Circa, the Rays are taking in 71% of moneyline bets and 92% of moneyline dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” discrepancy in their favor from the wiseguys in the desert.
Friday home favorites priced -150 or less who missed the playoffs the previous season, like the Rays here, are 50-31 (62%) with a 9% ROI since 2025. Non-division home favorites off a win priced -150 or less with a line move in their favor are 121-82 (60%) with a 6% ROI since 2025.
Tampa Bay has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Rays enjoy a “rest vs tired” advantage, as Tampa Bay was off yesterday and continues a homestand while the Twins played a late game last night in New York and now must travel south to Florida.
Rested home favorites coming off a day off receiving at least 5-cents of line movement in their favor are 94-51 (65%) with a 2% ROI since 2025.
7:15 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves (-145, 9.5)
The Phillies (8-17) have lost nine in a row and just got swept by the Cubs, losing yesterday’s series finale 8-7 in extra innings as -115 road favorites. On the other hand, the Braves (18-8) have won eight of their last nine and just took two of three against the Nationals, winning 7-2 yesterday as -140 road favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Phillies send out righty Andrew Painter (1-1, 4.42 ERA) and the Braves turn to fellow righty Grant Holmes (1-1, 3.43 ERA).
This line opened with Atlanta listed as a -135 home favorite and Philadelphia a +115 road dog.
Sharps have jumped on the Braves laying modest chalk at home, steaming Atlanta up from -135 to -145.
At Circa, the Braves are taking in 78% of moneyline bets and 92% of moneyline dollars, a one-way “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split in their favor from the pros in Vegas.
We’ve also seen sharp action back the Braves on the run-line (-1.5 at +140), as Atlanta is receiving 65% of spread bets and 93% of spread dollars at DraftKings.
Friday home favorites priced -150 or less who missed the playoffs the previous season, like the Braves here, are 50-31 (62%) with a 9% ROI since 2025.
Atlanta has a sizable edge at the plate, hitting .275 with a .341 OBP and 150 runs scored compared to Philadelphia hitting .219 with a .296 OBP and only 89 runs scored.
The Braves are hitting .293 at home, the best in MLB. Philadelphia is hitting .214 on the road, ranking 27th.
The Braves are 8-4 at home this season. The Phillies are 3-7 on the road.
8:10 p.m. ET: New York Yankees (-145, 9) at Houston Astros
The Yankees (16-9) just swept the Red Sox, winning 4-2 yesterday as -150 road favorites. Meanwhile, the Astros (10-16) just took two of three against the Guardians, winning the series finale 2-0 as +135 road dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Yankees tap righty Will Warren (2-0, 2.49 ERA) and the Astros go with fellow righty Lance McCullers Jr. (1-1, 6.20 ERA).
This line opened with New York listed as a -140 road favorite and Houston a +120 road dog.
Sharps have laid the chalk with the Bronx Bombers, pushing New York up from -140 to -145, with some shops inching toward -150.
At Circa, the Yankees are receiving 82% of moneyline bets and 96% of moneyline dollars, a heavy “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe bet split in their favor from the desert sharps.
We’ve also seen heavy action on the Yankees run-line (-1.5 at +110), as New York is taking in 67% of spread bets and 97% of spread dollars at DraftKings along with 75% of spread bets and 97% of spread dollars at Circa.
New York has betting system value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Yankees are 4-1 in Warren’s five starts this season. He has allowed 2 earned runs or less in all five starts.
On the other hand, the Astros are 0-3 in McCullers’ last three starts. He has posted an 8.78 ERA in his last three starts, allowing 13 earned runs in 13.1 innings pitched.
