MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Friday, August 14.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
2:10 PM Eastern
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs
Cardinals starting pitcher Matthew Liberatore is in bad form, posting a 5.15 ERA with 1.6 home runs and 3.4 walks per nine innings. He is supported by an offense that is fourth in the league in road scoring with 5.1 runs per game. The Cubs are second in scoring with over 5.2 runs per game. Cubs starting pitcher Clay Holmes is making just his second start since May 15. Though he owns a 2.86 ERA, it comes with 7.3 strikeouts and 3.2 walks per nine innings.
Pick: Cardinals vs. Cubs Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.6
6:10 PM Eastern
Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds
While Marlins starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara has been effective with a 3.52 ERA with 0.9 home runs and 2.3 walks per nine innings allowed, his seven strikeouts per nine innings are a career low. Reds starting pitcher Chase Burns has a 2.61 ERA with 10.4 strikeouts per nine innings, with only 0.9 home runs per nine innings. The Marlins are averaging less than four runs per game since the All-Star Break.
Pick: Reds Moneyline -110
Greg’s Handicap: Reds -138
6:40 PM Eastern
Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Red Sox starting pitcher Jake Bennett has been solid at not hurting himself, with 0.6 home runs and 1.9 walks per nine innings and a 3.17 ERA, but he is getting only 6.5 strikeouts per nine innings. Bennett faces a Pirates lineup that leads the league in scoring at home with 5.4 runs per game. The Pirates turn to Bubba Chandler for the start. This season, Chandler has a 4.26 ERA with 4.8 walks per nine innings, but he is in his best form of the season, allowing three earned runs or fewer in nine of his last 11 starts.
Pick: Pirates Moneyline +125
Greg’s Handicap: Pirates +116
9:38 PM Eastern
Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Angels
Royals starting pitcher Seth Lugo has a 4.41 ERA with 1.1 home runs and 3.1 walks per nine innings. He faces an Angels lineup that entered Thursday averaging just over 2.6 runs per game in their first 24 games since the All-Star Break. Grayson Rodriguez is the expected starting pitcher for the Angels. He has a 7.20 ERA, but a much lower 5.08 fielding independent. The Royals lineup is last in the league in road scoring with 3.6 runs per game.
Pick: Royals vs. Angels Under 9
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.4
10:10 PM Eastern
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Both starting pitchers have home and road splits that are advantageous for scoring. Brewers starting pitcher Robert Gasser has a 4.57 ERA with 8.2 strikeouts and 1.5 home runs per nine innings, which elevates to a 5.87 ERA and more than two home runs per nine innings on the road. Dodgers starting pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto has seen his 10.4 strikeouts per nine innings from last season go down to 8.2 this season. He still has a 2.65 ERA, though for his career his ERA jumps to 3.34 at home, with 1.1 home runs per nine innings compared to a 2.07 ERA with 0.6 home runs per nine innings on the road. The Dodgers are third in scoring with five runs per game and the Brewers fifth with 4.9 runs per game.
Pick: Brewers vs. Dodgers Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.7
10:15 PM Eastern
Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants
The Rockies have the worst road record in the National League at 21-41. They give Kyle Freeland the start. Freeland owns a 6.63 ERA overall with 1.7 home runs per nine innings, and that rises to 7.81 on the road with nearly two home runs per nine innings allowed. Giants starting pitcher Landen Roupp has a 4.22 ERA, but a lower 3.52 fielding independent with 0.7 home runs per nine innings. He is supported by a bullpen that is 22nd in ERA at 4.32, while the Rockies are 28th with a 4.92.
Picks: Giants Moneyline -120 and Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Giants -168 and Total 8.4
