MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Friday, May 29.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our brand new Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
6:40 PM Eastern
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds
Braves starting pitcher Grant Holmes has pitched a bit worse than his 3.78 ERA would indicate, with a 4.85 fielding independent, 1.5 home runs, and 4.1 walks per nine innings, but he has the support of a lineup that is second in road scoring with nearly 5.9 runs per game. Reds starting pitcher Chris Paddack owns a 6.86 ERA with 1.3 home runs and 3.1 walks per nine innings while being backed up by a bullpen that is 26th in ERA at 4.92, while the Braves are fifth with a 3.16 ERA.
Pick: Braves Moneyline -138
Greg’s Handicap: Braves -172
7:10 PM Eastern
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets
Mets starting pitcher Freddy Peralta has had command issues this season with four walks per nine innings, but he still owns a solid 3.52 ERA with 9.2 strikeouts per nine innings. Marlins starting pitcher Max Meyer owns a 2.52 ERA with 10.1 strikeouts and 0.6 home runs per nine innings allowed, but he has not been the same pitcher away from home, posting a 3.98 ERA with 1.3 home runs per nine innings allowed compared to a 1.79 ERA with 0.2 home runs per nine innings allowed at home. Both teams are near equals with their bullpens, as the Mets are eighth in bullpen ERA at 3.28 while the Marlins are ninth at 3.30.
Pick: Mets Moneyline -116
Greg’s Handicap: Mets -141
8:05 PM Eastern
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers
Rangers starting pitcher MacKenzie Gore has had some struggles this season with a 4.42 ERA and 4.2 walks per nine innings, but he gets to face a Royals offense that is last in the league in road scoring by about a full half-run with just three runs per game. Royals starting pitcher Stephen Kolek has pitched to a lot of contact with only 4.8 strikeouts per nine innings, but he is allowing just one home run and 1.7 walks per nine innings with a 2.77 ERA. The Rangers are also last in scoring at home with 3.2 runs per game.
Pick: Royals vs. Rangers Under 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.3
8:10 PM Eastern
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros
Brewers starting pitcher Coleman Crow is making his third start of the season after allowing three runs and just one walk in 10 1/3 innings, but there needs to be concern that his solid numbers are a byproduct of a small sample size, as he has a 4.89 ERA with 1.3 home runs and 3.6 walks per nine innings at the AAA level. Astros starting pitcher Kai-Wei Teng has a 2.19 ERA, but a 3.55 fielding independent with 3.6 walks per nine innings and is backed up by a bullpen that has the worst ERA in the league at 5.46.
Pick: Brewers Moneyline -115 and Over 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Brewers -126 and Total 8.7
8:15 PM Eastern
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Cubs starting pitcher Shota Imanaga enters after getting lit up in his past two starts, giving up five home runs and 15 total runs across 10 1/3 innings. He now owns a 4.04 ERA with 1.4 home runs per nine innings. Cardinals starting pitcher Kyle Leahy has a 4.44 ERA and 4.94 fielding independent with 1.4 home runs and 3.9 walks per nine innings allowed, though his ERA drops to 3.54 at home.
Pick: Cardinals Moneyline +120
Greg’s Handicap: Cardinals +117
10:10 PM Eastern
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners
Mariners starting pitcher George Kirby has pitched to a lot of contact this season with a career-low 7.2 strikeouts per nine innings while posting a 3.54 ERA. Diamondbacks starting pitcher Zac Gallen has had a plethora of issues this season, posting a 4.80 ERA with only 6.6 strikeouts per nine innings, and the majority of his struggles have come on the road, where he owns a 7.25 ERA with more than 1.6 home runs per nine innings allowed compared to a 3.09 ERA at home with 0.8 home runs per nine innings allowed.
Pick: Diamondbacks vs. Mariners Over 7 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.7
10:15 PM Eastern
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Phillies starting pitcher Zack Wheeler has not skipped a beat since coming off the injured list, posting a 1.69 ERA with only one home run allowed across 37 2/3 innings in his six starts. Dodgers starting pitcher Justin Wrobleski is pitching to a lot of contact, getting only five strikeouts per nine innings, but he has maintained a 3.07 ERA while allowing only 0.5 home runs and 2.3 walks per nine innings. He is also backed up by a Dodgers offense that has been far less lethal at home than on the road, averaging a league-high 6.1 runs per game away from home compared to 4.6 runs per game at home.
Pick: Phillies Moneyline +104
Greg’s Handicap: Phillies -102
