MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Monday, August 10.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
7:15 PM Eastern
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
Braves starting pitcher Bryce Elder is posting a 3.69 ERA but a higher 4.44 fielding independent with 7.4 strikeouts per nine innings and 1.4 home runs allowed per nine innings. Mets starting pitcher Christian Scott owns a 3.15 ERA with 11.1 strikeouts per nine innings but also 3.9 walks per nine innings and faces a Braves lineup that ranks fourth in home scoring with more than 5.1 runs per game. The Mets rank 14th in the National League in road scoring with just over four runs per game but have averaged 5.2 runs per game in the 15 games they’ve played without Juan Soto since July 25.
Pick: Mets vs. Braves Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.7
7:45 PM Eastern
Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Cardinals starting pitcher Hunter Dobbins has been solid with a 3.60 ERA and a 4.32 fielding independent while allowing 1.4 home runs per nine innings. He faces a Phillies lineup that ranks last in the National League in road scoring with fewer than four runs per game. Phillies starting pitcher Andrew Painter has struggled this season, posting a 6.48 ERA with 1.8 home runs and 3.4 walks allowed per nine innings.
Pick: Cardinals Moneyline -108
Greg’s Handicap: Cardinals -124
9:38 PM Eastern
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels
Rangers starting pitcher MacKenzie Gore has pitched better than his 4.55 ERA would indicate, as he owns a 3.74 fielding independent with 9.8 strikeouts per nine innings and 1.1 home runs allowed per nine innings. He faces an Angels lineup that ranks last in the league in home scoring with 3.6 runs per game and is averaging just 2.55 runs per game since the All-Star Break, scoring 51 runs in 20 games. The Angels turn to Reid Detmers to provide a strong start on the mound, and he has pitched better than his 4.12 ERA would suggest, owning a 3.47 fielding independent with 10.5 strikeouts and 2.7 walks per nine innings.
Pick: Rangers Moneyline -116 and Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Rangers -138 and Total 7.9
9:40 PM Eastern
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Athletics
Rays starting pitcher Freddy Peralta owns a 5.37 ERA with 1.5 home runs and 3.8 walks allowed per nine innings this season. Over his past eight starts, he has allowed 40 runs, 34 of them earned, in 34 1/3 innings. Athletics starting pitcher Jacob Lopez owns a 5.62 ERA with 1.6 home runs and 5.2 walks allowed per nine innings, and the Athletics rank last in the league in bullpen ERA, posting a 6.83 mark since June 1.
Pick: Rays vs. Athletics Over 9.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 10.2
9:45 PM Eastern
Houston Astros vs. San Francisco Giants
Astros starting pitcher Hayden Wesneski is making his ninth start since the beginning of the 2025 season, posting a 4.33 ERA and a 4.34 fielding independent with 7.6 strikeouts per nine innings and 1.4 home runs allowed per nine innings. Giants starting pitcher Blade Tidwell has been effective in a small 17-inning sample size at the MLB level this season, posting a 3.18 ERA with 0.5 home runs and 2.1 walks allowed per nine innings. He also posted a 4.38 ERA with Sacramento in the Pacific Coast League, which may not sound like a strong ERA but is solid for that league.
Pick: Giants Moneyline +140 and Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Giants +122 and Total 8.7
10:10 PM Eastern
Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers rank third in the league in scoring with just over five runs per game and will look to square up Royals starting pitcher Noah Cameron, who owns a 4.37 ERA with 8.4 strikeouts and 2.9 walks per nine innings. Cameron enters having allowed at least four total runs in six of his past 10 starts, while the Royals rank 29th in bullpen ERA at 5.36. Dodgers starting pitcher Tarik Skubal gave up his first home run since the All-Star Break in his Dodgers debut last week, allowing two runs in six innings against the Chicago Cubs. Overall this season, he owns a 2.81 ERA with a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 7.6, but his home run rate per nine innings is at its highest since 2021.
Pick: Royals vs. Dodgers Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.8
