MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Monday, July 6.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
6:40 PM Eastern
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Rays starting pitcher Griffin Jax has been significantly better as a starting pitcher than out of the bullpen, posting an 8.00 ERA with three home runs allowed per nine innings in relief while supplying a 2.65 ERA with 1.4 home runs allowed per nine innings as a starter. He faces a Yankees lineup that entered Sunday having scored just 46 runs over its past 16 games. Yankees starting pitcher Cam Schlittler owns a 2.08 ERA with 10.6 strikeouts and 1.8 walks per nine innings, with his ERA dropping to 1.03 on the road, and he is backed by a bullpen that ranks second in ERA at 3.15.
Pick: Yankees Moneyline +100
Greg’s Handicap: Yankees -142
7:15 PM Eastern
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
Braves starting pitcher Reynaldo López owns a 3.31 ERA and a 4.18 fielding independent with 3.8 walks and eight strikeouts per nine innings. He is backed by the league’s top bullpen, which owns a 2.88 ERA. Mets starter Freddy Peralta has a 4.81 ERA with 8.7 strikeouts and 3.6 walks per nine innings and has allowed 25 total runs, including 22 earned, over his past five starts.
Pick: Braves Moneyline -120
Greg’s Handicap: Braves -138
7:45 PM Eastern
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Cardinals starting pitcher Dustin May owns a 4.80 ERA with a lower 3.37 fielding independent and only 0.7 home runs allowed per nine innings, but he has surrendered 11 runs in just 2 2/3 innings over his past two starts. Brewers starter Shane Drohan has a 3.12 ERA and 3.18 fielding independent with 0.8 home runs and 2.8 walks allowed per nine innings. He is backed by an offense that ranks fourth in the league in scoring with more than 5.1 runs per game.
Pick: Brewers vs. Cardinals Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.6
9:40 PM Eastern
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres
Diamondbacks starting pitcher Brandon Pfaadt has struggled this season, posting a 5.40 ERA while allowing 1.7 home runs and 3.7 walks per nine innings with only 6.9 strikeouts per nine innings. Padres starter Walker Buehler has pitched better than his 4.61 ERA would indicate, owning a 3.89 fielding independent with one home run and 3.3 walks allowed per nine innings. He has also been much better at home, where his ERA drops to 3.23 with just 0.6 home runs allowed per nine innings.
Pick: Padres Moneyline -106 and Under 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Padres -160 and Total 8.1
9:45 PM Eastern
Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants
Giants starting pitcher Landen Roupp has pitched better than his 4.55 ERA would indicate, posting a 3.21 fielding independent while allowing just 0.6 home runs per nine innings and recording 10 strikeouts per nine innings. Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman has a 4.19 ERA but a lower 3.80 fielding independent with 8.9 strikeouts and 2.1 walks per nine innings. He faces a Giants lineup that ranks 28th in home scoring with 3.7 runs per game, while the Blue Jays also rank 28th in road scoring at 3.7 runs per game.
Pick: Blue Jays vs. Giants Under 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.3
