MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Saturday, August 22.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
1:35 PM Eastern
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees
Blue Jays starting pitcher Dylan Cease has been dominant this season with a 2.42 ERA, 0.6 home runs allowed and 13.1 strikeouts per nine innings, with his ERA dipping even lower on the road to 1.71 with 0.4 home runs per nine innings allowed. He faces a Yankees offense averaging less than 3.45 runs per game in its past 47 games, while Yankees starting pitcher Ryan Weathers owns a 3.56 ERA with 1.2 home runs per nine innings, which goes up to a 3.93 ERA with 1.4 home runs per nine innings at home this season.
Pick: Blue Jays Moneyline +110 and Over 6.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Blue Jays -102 and Total 7.1
4:10 PM Eastern
Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins
Nationals starting pitcher Jake Irvin has had a rough season, posting a 5.80 ERA with 1.5 home runs and 3.9 walks per nine innings allowed while being supported by a bullpen that is 27th in ERA at 4.80. The Nationals lineup is No. 1 in baseball in scoring with 5.3 runs per game, while Marlins starting pitcher Eury Perez owns a 3.23 ERA with one home run allowed and 9.8 strikeouts per nine innings. The Marlins are 27th in bullpen ERA since July 1 at 5.27.
Pick: Marlins Run Line -1.5 +120 and Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Marlins -1.5 -103 and Total 8.3
6:05 PM Eastern
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies starting pitcher Andrew Painter has been improved of late with two runs or fewer allowed in three of his past four starts, but still has a 6.43 ERA this season with 1.8 home runs and 3.6 walks per nine innings. He faces a Cardinals lineup that is fourth in baseball in scoring on the road with 5.1 runs per game. Cardinals starting pitcher Quinn Mathews is making his third career start and allowed only three runs in nine innings in his first two starts, but also issued six walks. He faces a Phillies lineup that is eighth in scoring at home with 4.9 runs per game, and both bullpens are shaky, with the Phillies 23rd in bullpen ERA since June 1 at 4.70 while the Cardinals are 19th in this span at 4.33.
Pick: Cardinals vs. Phillies Over 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 9.4
7:05 PM Eastern
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles
While Rays starting pitcher Shane McClanahan overall this season has a 3.25 ERA with only 0.7 home runs per nine innings allowed, in his first start off the injured list against this same Orioles lineup, he allowed three runs in a short 3 1/3-inning stint. Orioles starting pitcher Brandon Young is registering a 3.52 ERA with a 4.22 fielding independent, 7.3 strikeouts and 3.2 walks per nine innings and faces a Rays lineup that is eighth in the league in scoring away from home with 4.7 runs per game. The Rays entered the series 28th in bullpen ERA in the month of August at 5.23.
Pick: Rays vs. Orioles Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.4
7:15 PM Eastern
Chicago Cubs vs. Seattle Mariners
The Mariners are giving top prospect Kade Anderson his first career MLB start after posting a remarkable 10-1 record with a 1.06 ERA and 13 strikeouts per nine innings for Double-A Arkansas last season. Cubs starting pitcher David Peterson has pitched better than his 5.29 ERA would indicate, as his fielding independent is 4.00 with 0.9 home runs per nine innings allowed, and he faces a Mariners lineup that is last in the league in scoring with 3.9 runs per game.
Pick: Mariners Moneyline -115
Greg’s Handicap: Mariners -139
8:10 PM Eastern
Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Reds starting pitcher Rhett Lowder has not made things easy on himself this season, posting a 5.17 ERA with 1.2 home runs and 3.7 walks per nine innings while getting only 7.3 strikeouts per nine innings. Diamondbacks starting pitcher Michael Soroka has a 2.96 ERA with 8.6 strikeouts and 2.1 walks per nine innings and is supported by an offense that is without Ketel Marte and Nolan Arenado, but does get to face a Reds bullpen that is 25th in ERA at 4.54.
Pick: Reds vs. Diamondbacks Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.7
