MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Sunday, July 19.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
12:15 PM Eastern
Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Blue Jays starting pitcher Trey Yesavage owns a 3.72 ERA with only 0.8 home runs allowed per nine innings. While the White Sox rank eighth in the league in scoring at nearly 4.9 runs per game, they are also just 20th in road batting average at .234. Toronto’s offense ranks third in the league in fewest strikeouts per at-bat and faces White Sox starter Sean Burke, who owns a 3.41 ERA with 9.8 strikeouts per nine innings.
Pick: Blue Jays Moneyline +100
Greg’s Handicap: Blue Jays -135
1:35 PM Eastern
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox entered this series with a 17-27 home record while averaging a league-low 3.55 runs per game at Fenway Park. They now face Rays starter Shane McClanahan, who owns a 2.83 ERA and 3.15 fielding independent with 0.6 home runs and 2.9 walks allowed per nine innings. Red Sox starter Sonny Gray has a 2.54 ERA but a significantly higher 3.53 fielding independent, while averaging eight strikeouts per nine innings, his fewest since 2016.
Pick: Rays Moneyline +110 and Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Rays -104 and Total 8.1
Texas Rangers vs. Atlanta Braves
Rangers starting pitcher Nathan Eovaldi has struggled with the long ball this season, posting a 4.04 ERA while allowing 1.5 home runs per nine innings. Braves starter Grant Holmes has also surrendered 1.5 home runs per nine innings and appears due for regression with a 5.03 fielding independent and four walks per nine innings. However, he benefits from facing a Rangers lineup that ranks 25th in scoring with 4.1 runs per game, while Atlanta is backed by the second-ranked bullpen in ERA at 3.11.
Pick: Braves Moneyline -104
Greg’s Handicap: Braves -113
2:10 PM Eastern
Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Both starting pitchers have significant home/road splits. Brewers starter Robert Gasser owns a 5.24 ERA with 1.9 home runs allowed per nine innings overall, but that drops to a 3.48 ERA with 1.3 home runs allowed per nine innings at home compared to a 6.66 ERA with 2.5 home runs allowed per nine innings on the road. He is supported by a bullpen that ranks fourth in ERA at 3.53. Marlins starter Eury Pérez owns a 3.78 ERA with 1.4 home runs and 3.6 walks allowed per nine innings. For his career, he has a 2.69 ERA with 0.9 home runs allowed per nine innings at home compared to a 4.74 ERA with 1.8 home runs allowed per nine innings on the road. The Brewers entered the series ranked fourth in scoring at 5.1 runs per game.
Pick: Brewers Moneyline -122 and Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Brewers -147 and Total 8.9
Baltimore Orioles vs. Houston Astros
Astros starter Hunter Brown owns a 3.57 ERA with 9.9 strikeouts per nine innings, though he needs to improve upon his 5.6 walks per nine innings. Orioles starter Brandon Young has a 3.43 ERA despite a higher 4.04 fielding independent with 7.2 strikeouts and 3.3 walks per nine innings. Houston’s bullpen is well-positioned to support Brown, ranking second in bullpen ERA since June 1 at 2.99.
Pick: Astros Moneyline -115
Greg’s Handicap: Astros -139
3:10 PM Eastern
Cincinnati Reds vs. Colorado Rockies
Rockies starter Ryan Feltner owns a 4.55 ERA with 1.6 home runs and 3.4 walks allowed per nine innings while recording only 6.7 strikeouts per nine innings. Reds starter Hunter Greene is averaging an impressive 16.5 strikeouts per nine innings, but this will be only his third start of the season and he owns a 6.97 ERA. Cincinnati’s bullpen ranks 25th in ERA at 4.65, while Colorado’s ranks 26th at 4.97.
Pick: Reds Moneyline -134 and Over 11 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Reds -163 and Total 11.7
4:07 PM Eastern
Detroit Tigers vs. Los Angeles Angels
Angels starting pitcher Ryan Johnson has endured a rough season, posting a 6.75 ERA with 2.4 home runs and 3.5 walks allowed per nine innings. However, he benefits from facing a Tigers lineup that ranks 23rd in road scoring with 4.1 runs per game. Tigers starter Casey Mize owns a 2.79 ERA and 2.69 fielding independent with just 0.6 home runs allowed per nine innings, and he draws a favorable matchup against an Angels offense that ranks 27th in home scoring with 3.9 runs per game.
Pick: Tigers Moneyline -142 and Under 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Tigers -158 and Total 8.1
4:10 PM Eastern
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Diamondbacks starter Eduardo Rodríguez appears due for some regression on his 2.29 ERA, as his fielding independent sits at 4.11 and he is averaging only 6.2 strikeouts per nine innings. Cardinals starter Andre Pallante has the support of an offense that ranks second in road scoring with 5.5 runs per game, but he also pitches to plenty of contact, posting a 3.96 ERA while averaging just 6.5 strikeouts per nine innings. He is backed by a bullpen that ranks 18th in ERA at 4.24.
Pick: Diamondbacks Moneyline -110 and Over 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Diamondbacks -138 and Total 9.3
