MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Sunday, July 26.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
1:35 PM Eastern
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals
Nationals starting pitcher Miles Mikolas owns a 5.60 ERA overall with 1.9 home runs allowed and 4.7 strikeouts per nine innings, but those numbers improve to a 4.67 ERA with 1.6 home runs allowed per nine innings over his past 19 appearances. Diamondbacks starting pitcher Kohl Drake is making his second career MLB appearance after posting a 6.92 ERA in 17 minor league appearances with 1.5 home runs and 4.2 walks allowed per nine innings. He now faces a Nationals offense that leads the league in scoring with 5.5 runs per game.
Pick: Nationals Moneyline +103
Greg’s Handicap: Nationals -111
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox
Red Sox starting pitcher Ranger Suárez makes his first start in three weeks, which means he may not pitch as deep into the game as usual, but he still owns a 3.15 ERA and a 2.66 fielding independent with 9.6 strikeouts and 0.6 home runs allowed per nine innings. Blue Jays starting pitcher Kevin Gausman enters in a funk, having allowed at least five total runs in four of his past six starts, raising his ERA to 4.51. He faces a Red Sox lineup that is averaging more than 5.2 runs per game since the All-Star break.
Pick: Red Sox Moneyline -128 and Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Red Sox -149 and Total 8.4
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates lead the league in home scoring with nearly 5.7 runs per game and face Cubs starting pitcher Jameson Taillon, who owns a 5.38 ERA and a 6.40 fielding independent with 2.8 home runs and 3.1 walks allowed per nine innings. Pirates starting pitcher Braxton Ashcraft has pitched better than his 3.95 ERA would indicate, as he owns a 3.43 fielding independent with 10.1 strikeouts and 2.2 walks per nine innings.
Pick: Pirates Moneyline -118
Greg’s Handicap: Pirates -166
Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles
Braves starting pitcher Reynaldo López owns a 3.95 ERA and a 4.58 fielding independent with 1.4 home runs and 3.8 walks allowed per nine innings, but he is supported by a Braves bullpen that ranks first in the National League in ERA at 3.27. The Braves offense ranks fourth in road run production with five runs per game and faces Orioles starting pitcher Shane Baz, who owns a 4.05 ERA with eight strikeouts and 3.2 walks per nine innings. The Orioles rank 16th in bullpen ERA at 4.08.
Pick: Braves Moneyline -102 and Over 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Braves -114 and Total 9.2
1:40 PM Eastern
Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers
Tigers starting pitcher Framber Valdez has endured a rough 2026 season with a 4.57 ERA and a career-low 7.3 strikeouts per nine innings, but he gets to face a Royals lineup that is averaging an MLB-worst 3.7 runs per game and is now without Bobby Witt Jr., who was placed on the injured list. The Royals still had “to be announced” listed as their starting pitcher as of Saturday night, but Luinder Avila is expected to pitch in some capacity. Avila owns a 4.86 ERA with five walks per nine innings this season, but his numbers are skewed by one blowup outing in which he allowed eight runs in two-thirds of an inning against the Houston Astros. His ERA drops to 3.75 when that appearance is removed.
Pick: Royals vs. Tigers Under 9.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.8
2:10 PM Eastern
Athletics vs. Minnesota Twins
Twins starting pitcher Connor Prielipp returns after a stint on the injured list. While he owns a 5.00 ERA, his 3.89 fielding independent points toward positive regression, as he has allowed 1.1 home runs per nine innings while recording 9.6 strikeouts per nine innings. He faces an Athletics lineup that ranks 24th in road scoring with 4.1 runs per game. Athletics starting pitcher Jeffrey Springs owns a 5.96 ERA while allowing 2.4 home runs per nine innings.
Pick: Twins Moneyline -134 and Under 10.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Twins -153 and Total 9.6
7:20 PM Eastern
New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies starting pitcher Cristopher Sánchez owns a 2.65 ERA overall with 10.2 strikeouts and 1.7 walks per nine innings and has been significantly better at home, posting a 1.03 ERA with just two home runs allowed across 78 1/3 innings compared to a 4.95 ERA with 10 home runs allowed across 54 1/3 innings on the road. Yankees starting pitcher Will Warren owns a 4.00 ERA with 8.8 strikeouts and 3.1 walks per nine innings. He has allowed only 1.1 home runs per nine innings on the road compared to nearly 1.5 per nine innings at home and is supported by a bullpen that leads the league in ERA at 3.04. However, the Yankees lineup is averaging just 3.3 runs per game over its past 29 contests.
Pick: Yankees vs. Phillies Under 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.3
