MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Sunday, May 24.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
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12:35 PM Eastern
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles — Game 1 of Doubleheader
Tigers starting pitcher Framber Valdez owns a 4.58 ERA this season, but his 4.06 fielding independent along with just 0.8 home runs allowed per nine innings point toward positive regression. Orioles starting pitcher Brandon Young has a 4.25 ERA, but a much higher 5.22 fielding independent with 1.5 home runs and 4.2 walks allowed per nine innings. He is also backed by a bullpen that ranks 25th in ERA at 4.77, while the Tigers bullpen ranks 15th at 3.86.
Pick: Tigers Moneyline +121
Greg’s Handicap: Tigers -118
1:35 PM Eastern
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees
Yankees starting pitcher Ryan Weathers has a 3.58 ERA and 3.62 fielding independent with a career-high 10.9 strikeouts per nine innings and only 2.3 walks per nine innings. Rays starting pitcher Drew Rasmussen owns a 3.19 ERA with 1.3 home runs per nine innings allowed. He faces a Yankees lineup that leads the league in scoring at home with six runs per game. The Yankees have the edge in the bullpen, ranking 11th in bullpen ERA at 3.48, while the Rays are 19th at 4.33.
Pick: Rays vs. Yankees Over 7.5 Runs
(Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.3)
2:10 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Dodgers starting pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto owns a 3.32 ERA and 3.87 fielding independent with 1.4 home runs allowed per nine innings, but he has been significantly better on the road throughout his career. Yamamoto owns a lifetime 2.21 ERA away from home with fewer than 0.6 home runs allowed per nine innings compared to a 3.47 ERA and 1.2 home runs allowed per nine innings at home. Brewers starting pitcher Brandon Sproat has struggled badly, posting a 5.75 ERA with two home runs and 5.1 walks allowed per nine innings while facing a Dodgers lineup that ranks second in road scoring with 5.9 runs per game.
Pick: Dodgers Run Line -1.5 -105
Greg’s Handicap: Dodgers -1.5 -118
2:20 PM Eastern
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs
Cubs starting pitcher Shota Imanaga is coming off his worst start of the season after allowing eight runs against the Milwaukee Brewers on Monday, but he still owns a solid 3.38 ERA with 1.1 home runs and 2.5 walks allowed per nine innings this season. Astros starting pitcher Peter Lambert owns a 3.56 ERA with just 0.5 home runs allowed per nine innings, but he is supported by an Astros lineup averaging a league-worst 2.7 runs per game during the month of May. The Astros bullpen also entered the weekend ranked last in ERA at 5.62.
Pick: Cubs Run Line -1.5 +130
Greg’s Handicap: Cubs -1.5 -101
4:05 PM Eastern
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants
White Sox starting pitcher Noah Schultz has battled control issues this season, with his ERA climbing to 4.93 largely because he is issuing 5.5 walks per nine innings. Giants starting pitcher Robbie Ray owns a 4.28 ERA with two home runs and 3.6 walks allowed per nine innings, though his numbers were skewed by allowing 10 total runs in his previous start against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Prior to that outing, he had allowed three earned runs or fewer in each of his previous nine starts. Ray has also been dominant at home, where his ERA drops to 1.91 with fewer than one home run allowed per nine innings compared to a 6.84 ERA and 3.1 home runs allowed per nine innings on the road.
Pick: Giants Moneyline -102
Greg’s Handicap: Giants -138
4:10 PM Eastern
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves
Braves starting pitcher Martin Perez has enjoyed an outstanding start to the season with a 2.85 ERA, though his 3.93 fielding independent raises some concerns, especially against a Nationals lineup that has crushed left-handed pitching. Washington ranks in the top five in OPS against southpaws and leads the league in scoring with nearly 5.5 runs per game, while the Braves rank second with nearly 5.4 runs per game. Nationals starting pitcher Foster Griffin owns a 4.02 ERA with 1.6 home runs allowed per nine innings, and the Nationals bullpen ranks 26th in ERA at 4.95.
Pick: Nationals vs. Braves Over 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 9.3
