MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Thursday, April 30.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
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12:15 PM Eastern
Detroit Tigers vs. Atlanta Braves
Tigers starting pitcher Framber Valdez has posted a solid 3.47 ERA so far this season, but his swing-and-miss stuff is down with only 6.3 strikeouts and 3.7 walks per nine innings, while Braves starting pitcher Bryce Elder has looked like a new man this season, posting a 1.95 ERA with 0.5 home runs and 2.4 walks per nine innings allowed and is supported by a bullpen that is fourth in ERA at 3.19 and a lineup whose 5.7 runs per game leads the league.
Pick: Braves Moneyline -108 (Greg’s Handicap Braves -144)
12:35 PM Eastern
Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles (Game One of Doubleheader)
While the Astros pitching has been a train wreck, with the team last in team ERA entering Wednesday at 5.96 with no other team owning an ERA above 5.21, starting pitcher Peter Lambert has been a bright spot with a 3.27 ERA and 1.86 fielding independent in his two starts, getting 16 strikeouts in 11 innings, while Orioles starting pitcher Chris Bassitt has more walks than strikeouts this season with 5.5 walks and 4.2 strikeouts per nine innings with a 6.75 ERA, and the Astros offense entered the series fifth in scoring with 5.2 runs per game.
Pick: Astros Moneyline +105 and Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Astros -109 and Total 9.2)
1:10 PM Eastern
Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets
It has been a rough start to the season for the Mets offense, as they entered Wednesday 29th in the league in scoring with just under 3.5 runs per game, but facing Nationals starting pitcher Miles Mikolas, who may have an opener come in before he pitches in a bulk role, should help their cause as he enters with an 8.49 ERA with 2.7 home runs and 3.9 walks per nine innings allowed, and is supported by a lineup that is fourth in scoring with 5.2 runs per game, while facing Mets starting pitcher Freddy Peralta, who has a 3.90 ERA and 3.90 fielding independent with 1.1 home runs and 3.6 walks per nine innings allowed.
Pick: Nationals vs. Mets Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 8.4)
1:40 PM Eastern
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers starting pitcher Brandon Woodruff has seen a dip in his strikeout numbers from 11.6 strikeouts per nine innings last season, but has a 3.77 ERA with solid command at 1.9 walks per nine innings, while Diamondbacks starting pitcher Michael Soroka has a 2.60 ERA with 11.4 strikeouts per nine innings so far this season, but is coming off a 2025 season in which he recorded a 4.52 ERA with 1.2 home runs and 2.9 walks per nine innings allowed and is supported by a bullpen that ranks 25th in ERA at 5.13, while the Brewers are fifth in run production with 5.2 runs per game.
Pick: Brewers Moneyline -120 (Greg’s Handicap Brewers -146)
3:05 PM Eastern
Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics
Athletics starting pitcher Jeffery Springs has had a middle-of-the-road start to the season with a 3.78 ERA, getting 7.8 strikeouts with 1.3 home runs per nine innings allowed and should benefit from facing a Royals offense that entered Wednesday averaging a league-worst 2.6 runs per game away from home, while Royals starting pitcher Noah Cameron has a 5.13 ERA with 1.7 home runs per nine innings and is supported by a bullpen that ranks 28th in ERA at 5.46, while the Athletics are 15th in bullpen ERA at 4.11.
Pick: Athletics Moneyline -125 and Under 10 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Athletics -142 and Total 9.2)
