MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Thursday, August 27.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
1:05 PM Eastern
Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals
Rockies starting pitcher Gabriel Hughes has pitched far better than his 6.54 ERA would indicate, as his fielding independent is 3.86 with 0.8 home runs per nine innings allowed. Nationals starting pitcher Jake Irvin has struggled to a 5.82 ERA and 5.06 fielding independent with 1.6 home runs and 3.8 walks per nine innings allowed and is supported by a bullpen that was heavily used on Wednesday and has a 4.77 ERA, which ranks 26th in the league. The Rockies are 27th in bullpen ERA at 4.84, and Hughes faces a Nationals lineup that is second in the league in scoring with 5.2 runs per game.
Pick: Rockies vs. Nationals Over 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 9.2
2:15 PM Eastern
Baltimore Orioles vs. St. Louis Cardinals
It is undecided who the Cardinals will start on the mound on Thursday, but it is likely to be a combination of an unproven call-up and a bullpen that ranks 24th in ERA since July 1 at 4.65. The Orioles give Trevor Rogers the start, who for the season has a 4.14 ERA but has been sensational since the month of June with a 2.57 ERA and less than 0.7 home runs per nine innings allowed in his 14 starts in this span. He has allowed three runs or fewer in all but one of those starts, and the Cardinals are last in the National League in scoring at home with 3.8 runs per game.
Pick: Orioles Moneyline -110
Greg’s Handicap: Orioles -139
7:05 PM Eastern
Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees
While the Yankees offense is getting a boost with the return of Cody Bellinger, they are still averaging only 3.6 runs per game in their past 50 games and turn to Gerrit Cole for a good start. Cole is registering a 3.11 ERA with 9.7 strikeouts and 1.9 walks per nine innings. Astros starting pitcher Hayden Wesneski has a 4.23 ERA but a lower 3.63 fielding independent with 0.7 home runs per nine innings allowed and is supported by a bullpen that is seventh in ERA since July 1 at 3.47, while the Yankees are second at 2.61.
Pick: Astros vs. Yankees Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.8
7:07 PM Eastern
Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays
The Royals are averaging the fewest runs per game on the road of any team in baseball at 3.6 and look to starting pitcher Noah Cameron to continue his masterful stretch. His season-long 4.02 ERA is not indicative of how he’s pitched recently, as he has allowed a total of five runs in his last six starts, with zero runs allowed in four of those starts across 42 2/3 innings. He faces a Blue Jays lineup that is last in the league in scoring with 3.9 runs per game, while Blue Jays starting pitcher Spencer Arrighetti has a 4.73 ERA with 1.3 home runs and four walks per nine innings but is supported by a bullpen that is eighth in ERA at 3.77.
Pick: Royals vs. Blue Jays Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.8
7:10 PM Eastern
Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets
The Mets offense is averaging over 4.6 runs per game in 27 games without Juan Soto after averaging 4.05 runs per game prior to the injury, but now they have to face Brewers starting pitcher Jacob Misiorowski, who has a 1.68 ERA with 13.4 strikeouts and two walks per nine innings. Mets starting pitcher Sean Manaea is posting a 4.31 ERA and 4.53 fielding independent with 1.5 home runs and three walks per nine innings, while the Brewers are fourth in scoring with over 4.9 runs per game.
Pick: Brewers vs. Mets Over 7 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.6
7:15 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves
Dodgers starting pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto has seen his 10.4 strikeouts per nine innings from last season go down to 8.6 this season but still has a 2.61 ERA. For his career, his ERA jumps to 3.27 at home with one home run per nine innings compared to a 2.07 ERA with 0.6 home runs per nine innings away from home. Braves starting pitcher Chris Sale has a 2.20 ERA with 11.1 strikeouts and 1.9 walks per nine innings, which goes down to a 1.65 ERA at home, but faces a Dodgers lineup that leads the league in road scoring with 5.6 runs per game.
Pick: Dodgers Moneyline +101
Greg’s Handicap: Dodgers -106
