MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Thursday, September 3.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
1:10 PM Eastern
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cleveland Guardians
Blue Jays starting pitcher José Soriano was traded from the Los Angeles Angels at the beginning of the month, which should benefit him moving forward, as his career ERA in starts at Angel Stadium is 4.55 compared to a 3.20 ERA with less than 0.6 home runs per nine innings allowed in all other ballparks. He faces a Guardians lineup that is tied for 25th in scoring with less than 4.1 runs per game, while Guardians starting pitcher Tanner Bibee has a 3.88 ERA with a 4.56 fielding independent, a career-low 7.1 strikeouts per nine innings, and 1.4 home runs per nine innings allowed.
Pick: Blue Jays Moneyline -105 and Under 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Blue Jays -119 and Total 7.3
7:15 PM Eastern
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs
The wind at times will be blowing out in Chicago on Thursday and at times blowing in for a bit of a hodgepodge of conditions. Brewers starting pitcher Logan Henderson enters in great form with a 2.48 ERA, 10.1 strikeouts, and 1.7 walks per nine innings, while Cubs starting pitcher Kevin Gausman overall this season has a 4.52 ERA with 8.8 strikeouts and two walks per nine innings. However, Gausman has struggled recently with a 5.93 ERA in his past 13 starts, and both offenses have been potent, with the Brewers third in the league in scoring with five runs per game and the Cubs leading the league in scoring with 8.4 runs per game.
Pick: Brewers Moneyline +101 and Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Brewers -127 and Total 9.2
Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles
Both starting pitchers are allowing a lot of contact, as Orioles starting pitcher Brandon Young is registering 7.1 strikeouts and 3.3 walks per nine innings, and his 4.31 fielding independent is an indicator that his 3.38 ERA might be due for some regression. Red Sox starting pitcher Jake Bennett has allowed at least three runs in five of his past six starts, but has a 3.27 ERA this season while getting 7.1 strikeouts per nine innings. He is also allowing only 0.7 home runs and 1.7 walks per nine innings and is supported by a bullpen that ranks second in ERA at 3.13.
Pick: Red Sox vs. Orioles Over 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.8
7:40 PM Eastern
Miami Marlins vs. Kansas City Royals
Marlins starting pitcher Sandy Alcántara has been solid overall this season with a 3.46 ERA, 0.9 home runs, and 2.4 walks per nine innings, but has struggled on the road with a 4.22 ERA and just under 1.3 home runs per nine innings compared to a 2.58 ERA at home with 0.4 home runs per nine innings. Royals starting pitcher Michael Wacha owns a 3.32 ERA with 1.2 home runs and 2.2 walks per nine innings and is supported by a Royals unit with huge home and road splits, entering Wednesday with a 36-31 home record and over 4.9 runs per game while averaging a league-low 3.6 runs per game on the road with a 26-46 record.
Pick: Royals Moneyline +105
Greg’s Handicap: Royals -123
8:05 PM Eastern
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Texas Rangers
Rays starting pitcher Shane McClanahan owns a 3.19 ERA with only 0.7 home runs per nine innings allowed, while Rangers starting pitcher Cal Quantrill has a 3.01 ERA with a 4.07 fielding independent and 6.8 strikeouts per nine innings. Quantrill faces a Rays lineup that is 13th in run production on the road with 4.5 runs per game, and since July 1, the Rangers are 28th in bullpen ERA at 5.40, while the Rays are sixth at 3.49.
Pick: Rays Moneyline -125 and Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Rays -148 and Total 7.9
10:10 PM Eastern
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
While Tarik Skubal’s ERA is up from previous seasons at 2.84, his 2.52 fielding independent with a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 7.3 is on par with his Cy Young Award seasons. However, he faces a Cardinals lineup that is third in the league in road scoring with 5.2 runs per game. The Cardinals send Quinn Mathews to the mound for a start, and he has a 5.03 ERA in four career starts with 3.7 walks per nine innings after issuing 5.5 walks per nine innings at the minor league level. He is supported by a bullpen that is 24th in ERA at 4.49.
Pick: Cardinals vs. Dodgers Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.2
