MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Tuesday, April 21.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
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6:10 PM Eastern
Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians
It is likely to be all hands on deck for the Astros, as Ryan Weiss makes his second career start and owns a 6.75 ERA with 2.5 home runs and 6.1 walks per nine innings across 14 2/3 innings this season. Guardians starting pitcher Parker Messick has been lights out since being called up to the MLB level in 2025, posting a 2.07 ERA in 11 career starts with 0.7 home runs and 1.8 walks per nine innings allowed. He has his work cut out for him against an Astros lineup that is fifth in the league in scoring with 5.3 runs per game, but the Guardians lineup should produce plenty of offense against an Astros bullpen that ranks 29th in ERA at 5.88.
Pick: Guardians Moneyline -130 and Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Guardians -158 and Total 8.6
6:40 PM Eastern
Cincinnati Reds vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Rays starting pitcher Steven Matz is coming off a resurgent 2025 season, posting a 3.05 ERA with 0.9 home runs and 1.3 walks per nine innings, and has seen a slight increase in ERA this season to 3.80. However, his 3.36 fielding independent with 0.8 home runs allowed and 8.9 strikeouts per nine innings points toward positive regression. He is supported by a lineup that entered the series 27th in scoring with 3.55 runs per game. Reds starting pitcher Chase Burns has a 2.42 ERA this season, but a 4.11 fielding independent with 1.2 home runs and 3.6 walks per nine innings allowed, while the Rays offense ranks 11th in scoring with 4.9 runs per game.
Pick: Rays Moneyline -104
Greg’s Handicap: Rays -127
6:45 PM Eastern
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox
Yankees starting pitcher Luis Gil was quite fortunate in 2025, posting a 3.32 ERA across 11 starts with a 4.63 fielding independent along with 6.5 strikeouts and 5.2 walks per nine innings. This season, he has allowed seven runs and five walks across nine innings in two starts. Red Sox starting pitcher Connelly Early has a small sample size of just eight regular-season starts but has dazzled with a 2.31 ERA with 11.3 strikeouts and just 0.2 home runs per nine innings allowed. He is supported by a bullpen that ranked second in ERA last season at 3.41, and while they are 13th to begin this season at 3.78, the Yankees are 17th with a 4.13 ERA.
Pick: Red Sox Moneyline +105
Greg’s Handicap: Red Sox -135
Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals
Braves starting pitcher Reynaldo López missed nearly the entire 2025 season, and while he owns a 2.16 ERA through four starts this season, his 4.48 fielding independent with 1.3 home runs and 3.5 walks per nine innings points toward regression. He faces a Nationals lineup that entered the series third in scoring with 5.5 runs per game, while the Braves entered second with nearly 5.6 runs per game. Nationals starting pitcher Foster Griffin has a 3.05 ERA but a 4.34 fielding independent with 1.3 home runs and three walks per nine innings and is backed by a bullpen that ranks 25th in ERA this season at 5.37 after finishing last in 2025 with a 5.59 ERA.
Pick: Braves Moneyline -134 and Over 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Braves -179 and Total 8.8
7:40 PM Eastern
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs
Phillies starting pitcher Jesús Luzardo has struggled to begin 2026, posting a 7.94 ERA with 11.1 hits allowed per nine innings. While his 2.86 fielding independent points toward positive regression, the wind blowing out at Wrigley Field hurts his outlook. The same applies to Cubs starting pitcher Shota Imanaga, who has a 2.46 ERA with 0.8 home runs per nine innings after a 2025 season in which he had a 3.73 ERA but a 4.86 fielding independent with 1.9 home runs per nine innings allowed. He does benefit from facing a Phillies lineup that is last in the National League in road scoring with 3.3 runs per game.
Pick: Cubs Moneyline -118 and Over 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Cubs -138 and Total 10.1
Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals
Royals starting pitcher Kris Bubic had an impressive 2025 season with a 2.55 ERA with 0.5 home runs and nine strikeouts per nine innings and has seen his ERA rise to 3.97 to begin 2026. However, his 3.31 fielding independent with 10.3 strikeouts and 0.8 home runs per nine innings allowed suggests strong underlying performance. Orioles starting pitcher Shane Baz has posted a 4.87 ERA since the start of the 2025 season with 1.3 home runs and 3.4 walks per nine innings allowed and is backed by a lineup that ranks 26th in road scoring with 3.3 runs per game.
Pick: Royals Moneyline -125 and Under 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Royals -148 and Total 8.8
9:40 PM Eastern
Chicago White Sox vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Diamondbacks starting pitcher Merrill Kelly is back with the team after being traded to the Texas Rangers late in 2025, posting a 3.22 ERA with one home run and 2.7 walks per nine innings with Arizona last season compared to a 4.23 ERA with 1.5 home runs per nine innings allowed with Texas. White Sox starting pitcher Sean Burke had a 4.22 ERA with a 4.92 fielding independent last season, allowing 1.5 home runs and 4.2 walks per nine innings, and has begun this season with a 4.43 ERA with a career-low 7.5 strikeouts per nine innings but just 2.7 walks per nine innings. The White Sox lineup entered the series 25th in scoring with 3.7 runs per game.
Pick: Diamondbacks Run Line -1.5 +140 and Under 9.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Diamondbacks -1.5 +104 and Total 8.7
