MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Wednesday, August 12.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
1:40 PM Eastern
Baltimore Orioles vs. Minnesota Twins
Orioles starting pitcher Shane Baz has pitched better than his 3.76 ERA would indicate. He has a 3.36 fielding independent with 0.7 home runs and three walks per nine innings allowed. BAz enters having allowed three earned runs or fewer in 14 of his past 15 starts, posting a 2.93 ERA in that span with the team just 4-11 in those starts. Twins starting pitcher Zebby Matthews has a 5.24 ERA overall with 7.6 strikeouts and 1.8 home runs per nine innings allowed. He has been significantly better at home with a 2.84 ERA and allowing 0.9 home runs per nine innings compared to a 7.13 road ERA with 2.5 home runs per nine innings allowed.
Pick: Orioles vs. Twins Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.3
2:15 PM Eastern
Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Phillies starting pitcher Zack Wheeler has a 2.69 ERA and 3.16 fielding independent with 10.8 strikeouts and 2.3 walks per nine innings. Wheeler faces a Cardinals offense that is last in the National League in scoring at home with 3.75 runs per game. The Phillies are last in scoring on the road with just over three runs per game. Cardinals starting pitcher Kyle Leahy has a 3.45 ERA with one home run and 2.8 walks per nine innings.
Pick: Phillies vs. Cardinals Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.8
6:40 PM Eastern
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers
Tigers starting pitcher Framber Valdez owns a 4.17 ERA but a lower 4.04 fielding independent with allowing only 0.8 home runs per nine innings. He is supported by a bullpen that is fourth in ERA since June 1 at 3.16. Guardians starting pitcher Foster Griffin owns a 3.31 ERA, but has a much higher 4.21 fielding independent with 1.4 home runs per nine innings. The Guardians’ lineup is 28th in scoring with less than four runs per game.
Pick: Tigers Moneyline -125
Greg’s Handicap: Tigers -136
7:05 PM Eastern
Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees
Mariners starting pitcher Bryce Miller has had an issue with the deep ball, allowing 1.5 home runs per nine innings. Overall, he has been effective with a 3.08 ERA, getting nine strikeouts with only 1.7 walks per nine innings allowed. Miller faces a Yankees lineup that entered the series averaging less than 3.4 runs per game in their last 38 games. Yankees starting pitcher Will Warren has pitched better than his 4.18 ERA would indicate, supplying a 3.85 fielding independent with nine strikeouts and 1.2 home runs allowed per nine innings. Warren is supported by a bullpen that is second in the league in ERA at 3.13.
Pick: Mariners vs. Yankees Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.9
7:07 PM Eastern
Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Red Sox starting pitcher Ranger Suarez owns a 3.32 ERA this season with 0.5 home runs allowed and 9.4 strikeouts per nine innings. Since coming off the injured list, he has not pitched a full five innings in any of his three starts, posting a 5.06 ERA in that time span. He is supported by an offense that overall ranks 15th in scoring with just under 4.5 runs per game. That ascends to nearly 4.7 runs per game away from home, which ranks eighth in the league.
Pick: Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.9
