Player props have become one of baseball’s most entertaining ways to bet, offering value well beyond the moneyline, run line, or game total. Each day, this column highlights the best opportunities on the board — from strikeouts and hits to total bases and pitcher outs recorded — using matchup data, recent form, and betting trends to identify edges. Keep reading for the top MLB player prop picks for May 16. Also, make sure you check out our live VSiN programming for more. Our hosts and analysts will be all over the MLB, which is why it pays to be a VSiN Pro subscriber.
MORE: Check out the VSiN Pro Picks page for more bets from our talented hosts and analysts!
Saturday Player Prop Best Bets
Below you’ll find my official plays on the player prop market for Saturday. These are the ones that make the VSiN Pro Picks page and count towards my season-long record. On Saturdays and Sundays, I’m going to keep these much shorter to cut down on my workload a little.
Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-120) vs. Pirates
Phillies at Pirates – 4:05 pm ET
Schwarber has had at least two hits, runs, and RBIs (HRR) in back-to-back games, plus he has also reached the mark in seven of the last eight. The lefty slugger also happens to be seeing a righty tonight, and he’s averaging 2.7 HRR versus righties this season.
Chris Paddack Over 14.5 Outs Recorded (+102) vs. Guardians
Reds at Guardians – 6:05 pm ET
Paddack only has one start this season in which he has recorded at least 15 outs, which is why this is available at plus-money odds for us. However, the Guardians are merely a middle-of-the-pack team when it comes to wRC+ (97). This isn’t a very dangerous lineup, so Paddack should be able to work through a decent chunk of this game.
Davis Martin Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-148 – 1.5 units) & Alt Strikeouts 6+ (+150 – 0.5 units) vs. Cubs
Cubs at White Sox – 7:10 pm ET
Martin has had at least seven strikeouts in each of his last four starts. He has also had at least six Ks in six of his eight outings this year. With that in mind, it seems crazy we’re getting a decent price on the righty to strike out five here.
Additional Picks
Ivan Herrera Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-140) vs. Royals
Tomoyuki Sugano Over 2.5 Strikeouts (-126 – 1.5 units) & Alt Strikeouts 4+ (+213 – 0.5 units) vs. Diamondbacks
Sandy Alcantara Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-143) vs. Rays
Connor Prielipp Over 14.5 Outs Recorded (-150) vs. Brewers
Bryce Elder Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-160) vs. Red Sox
Hyeseong Kim Over 0.5 Total Bases (-120) vs. Angels
Nick Kurtz Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+120) vs. Giants
Noteworthy OptaAI Player Prop Edges
Check out the BRAND NEW OptaAI Player Props MLB pages for more of these! VSiN Pro subscribers can find 50+ player prop ideas on a daily basis! We’ll list the top edges in some of the biggest markets below, but there will always be a lot more to uncover on the pages themselves.
Trevor McDonald Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-110) vs. Athletics
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him going for 6.94 strikeouts, suggesting these odds should be -460 — a +29.8% edge to the Over.
Austin Wells Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-134) vs. Mets
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.69 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -442 — a +24.3% edge to the Over.
Brice Matthews Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-141) vs. Rangers
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him projected for 1.73 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -462 — a +23.7% edge to the Over.
