Today we kick off the weekend with a loaded 15 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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4:10 p.m. ET: Miami Marlins at Tampa Bay Rays (-140, 7.5)
The Rays (29-14) won last night’s Interleague series opener 7-2, taking care of business as -125 home favorites.
In this late afternoon rematch, the Marlins (20-25) hand the ball to righty Sandy Alcantara (3-2, 3.90 ERA) and the Rays go with fellow righty Nick Martinez (4-1, 1.70 ERA).
This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a -130 home favorite and Miami a +110 road dog.
Sharps have jumped on the Rays laying modest chalk at home, steaming Tampa Bay up from -130 to -140.
At DraftKings, the Rays are taking in 84% of moneyline bets and 86% of moneyline dollars, a one-way “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the home chalk.
Pro money has also come down in favor of the Rays run-line (-1.5 at +150), as Tampa Bay is receiving 80% of spread bets and 94% of spread dollars at Circa.
The Rays have betting system and correlative betting value as an Interleague favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the lack of familiarity and fewer amount of expected runs scored historically benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
Tampa Bay is 7-1 in Martinez’s eight starts this season. He is 2-0 with a 1.53 ERA at home.
On the other hand, Alcantara has a 7.84 ERA in two May starts, allowing 9 earned runs in 10.1 innings pitched. He has an ERA of 6.00 on the road compared to 2.95 at home.
The Rays are 15-4 at home, the best home record in MLB. The Marlins are 6-13 on the road, the 5th worst road record in MLB.
Tampa Bay is 17-6 (74%) with a 31% ROI as a favorite, the 2nd best chalk team in MLB.
7:10 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers (-125, 8.5) at Minnesota Twins
The Brewers (25-17) won last night’s Interleague series opener 3-2, coming from behind to cash as a -110 road pick’em.
In tonight’s rematch, the Brewers send out righty Logan Henderson (0-1, 4.15 ERA) and the Twins (20-25) trot out lefty Connor Prielipp (1-1, 3.32 ERA).
This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a -120 road favorite and Minnesota a +100 road dog.
Sharps have quietly sided with the Brew Crew laying short road chalk, pushing Milwaukee up from -120 to -125.
At DraftKings, the Brewers are taking in 78% of moneyline bets and 88% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” split indicating one-way Pro and Joe support in their favor.
Pro action has also hit the Brewers on the run-line (-1.5 at +130), as Milwaukee is receiving 56% of spread bets and 80% of spread dollars at DraftKings.
Above .500 favorites priced -130 or less off a win facing a below .500 team, like the Brew Crew here, are 20-9 (69%) with a 26% ROI this season.
Milwaukee is 16-10 (62%) with a 6% ROI as a favorite this season, the 5th best chalk team in MLB.
The Brewers have an edge in the bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 3.41 (9th best in MLB) compared to 5.33 for Minnesota (2nd worst).
9:40 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants at Athletics (-135, 9.5)
The Athletics (23-21) took last night’s series Interleague series opener 5-2, cashing as -135 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Giants (18-27) tap righty Trevor McDonald (1-0, 2.92 ERA) and the Athletics start fellow righty Luis Severino (2-4, 4.07 ERA).
This line opened with the Athletics listed as a -130 home favorite and the Giants a +110 road dog.
Sharps have quietly sided with the A’s laying modest chalk at home, pushing the Athletics up from -130 to -135.
At Circa, the Athletics are receiving 71% of moneyline bets and a whopping 85% of moneyline dollars, a pronounced “low bets, higher dollars” split signaling heavy one-way Pro money in their favor from the wiseguys in the desert.
Above .500 home favorites priced -140 or less facing a sub .500 opponent, like the A’s here, are 23-10 (70%) with a 25% ROI this season.
The Athletics have the edge at the plate, hitting .253 with a .329 OBP and 195 runs scored compared to the Giants hitting .240 with a .289 OBP and 149 runs scored.
The A’s are hitting .258 against righties (5th best in MLB) while the Giants are hitting .238 (18th).
Severino has pitched well as of late, posting a 1.87 ERA over this last four starts, allowing only 5 earned runs in 24 innings pitched. He has a 2.86 ERA at night compared to 7.07 during the day.
The Giants are 8-15 on the road, the 7th worst road record in MLB.
