Player props have become one of baseball’s most entertaining ways to bet, offering value well beyond the moneyline, run line, or game total. Each day, this column highlights the best opportunities on the board — from strikeouts and hits to total bases and pitcher outs recorded — using matchup data, recent form, and betting trends to identify edges. Keep reading for the top MLB player prop picks for April 16. Also, make sure you check out our live VSiN programming for more. Our hosts and analysts will be all over the MLB, which is why it pays to be a VSiN Pro subscriber.
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Thursday Player Prop Best Bets
Below you’ll find my official plays on the player prop market for Thursday. These are the ones that make the VSiN Pro Picks page and count towards my season-long record. I’ll write three up per day but I’ll add additional ones in an “Additional Best Bets” section. That’s also where you’ll find any late adds to my card.
Patrick Corbin Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-140) vs. Brewers
Blue Jays at Brewers – 1:40 pm ET
Corbin, America’s punching bag, will be on the bump for the Blue Jays this afternoon. Going up against a good offensive team, I imagine many will be quick to fade the southpaw — as they always do. However, I’m going with Corbin to finish with at least four strikeouts. Last year, Corbin went Over this mark in 12 of his 19 starts. The Brewers also happen to have a strikeout rate of 23.1% against lefties early in the season, and I’m not sure I see that number going down any time soon. Corbin also threw 85 pitches last game, which was a good sign with him having not pitched in Spring Training. I don’t think we have to worry about him being yanked too early — unless he gets blown up.
Tyler Soderstrom Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+100) vs. Rangers
Rangers at Athletics – 3:05 pm ET
Soderstrom hasn’t gotten himself going this year, as he’s hitting .212 with two homers and 14 RBIs. However, with him struggling at the moment, I think we’re getting good prices on him to go Over his total bases and HRR — especially against right-handed pitching. Last year, when playing against righty starters in games with totals of at least 8.0, Soderstrom averaged 2.4 hits, runs, and RBIs per game. Well, that’s the situation the 24-year-old finds himself in tonight, as the total is 8.5 and Jack Leiter will be on the mound for the Rangers. Also, Soderstrom is 3 for 9 with a homer and three RBIs against Leiter in his career.
Parker Messick Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-118) vs. Orioles
Orioles at Guardians – 6:10 pm ET
Baltimore has the 10th-highest strikeout rate (23.4%) in baseball this year, and the team had the third-worst mark (24.2%) in MLB last year. This is a team that has a ton of talent in the lineup, but these players do strike out rather often. Well, Messick should be able to take advantage of that. Last year, Messick had at least six strikeouts in four of his seven outings. And he’s already doing some decent work as a swing-and-miss guy this year, despite the Guardians having faced some tough lineups. Tonight, I’m banking on the lefty’s stuff against this Orioles lineup. I can see him finishing with seven or eight Ks.
Additional Best Bets
Braxton Ashcraft Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (-109) vs. Nationals
Landen Roupp Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (-102) vs. Reds
Keider Montero Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-105) vs. Royals
Amed Rosario Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+100) vs. Angels
Walker Buehler Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+105) vs. Marinrs
Noteworthy OptaAI Player Prop Edges
Check out the BRAND NEW OptaAI Player Props MLB pages for more of these! VSiN Pro subscribers can find 50+ player prop ideas on a daily basis! We’ll list the top edges in some of the biggest markets below, but there will always be a lot more to uncover on the pages themselves.
Ryan Weiss Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-111) vs. Rockies
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him going for 6.74 strikeouts, suggesting these odds should be -405 — a +27.6% edge to the Over.
Nick Kurtz Over 1.5 Total Bases (+135) vs. Rangers
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 2.13 total bases, suggesting these odds should be -168 — a +20.2% edge to the Over.
Luke Raley Over 1.5 Total Bases (+175) vs. Padres
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.81 total bases, suggesting these odds should be -117 — a +17.7% edge to the Over.
