MLB Best Bets Today April 16
It’s a much bigger Thursday slate than what we had last week, as there were only four games on the schedule a week ago and there are 10 today. We have a lot of afternoon getaway day games, spot starters, openers, and all sorts of shenanigans with the April 16 card.
Both NL games start in the 12 p.m. ET hour, while two AL games and one interleague game start in the 1 p.m. ET hour. As you know, lead time is important to me, so that thins out the card a bit to look at only the later games. On a day like today, it doesn’t leave a ton of options.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
That’s a lot of coverage and we’ll be doing it all season long. We’re happy to have you along for the ride.
Here are the MLB best bets today for April 16:
Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Guardians (-131, 8)
6:10 p.m. ET
This is a really interesting handicap, not necessarily because of the game itself, but because of the way that bettors are treating it. This line has been pinballing back and forth with action on both sides ever since it opened. We’ve seen some influential money on the Orioles with Shane Baz on the bump and also the Guardians with Parker Messick.
Messick is off to a phenomenal start and he’s done it against some very good offenses. He’s allowed just one run on 11 hits with a 16/5 K/BB ratio against the Dodgers, Cubs, and Braves, who currently rank 1st, 7th, and 5th in wRC+ against LHP. It would seem that Messick has been one of the very few southpaws to befuddle those offenses.
He gets another stiff test today, as the Orioles have a 132 wRC+ that ranks third against lefties, posting a .271/.375/.421 slash thus far. It should be noted that Baltimore’s 13.1% BB% against LHP is third in the league and Messick has only walked 11 of 231 batters at the MLB level for a 7.6% BB%. Will the Orioles find the same success while probably not being able to draw walks.
Baz has allowed eight runs on 20 hits in 16 innings of work with a 4.50 ERA, 4.02 xERA, and a 3.66 FIP, so there are some positive regression signs in the profile. He has only allowed one home run, but a .380 BABIP has done a number on him. His 18.3% K% is a little bit disappointing in the early going, but he is working on some arsenal changes while in his first season with a new team and new catchers. There can be a learning curve there for sure.
The Guardians are 19th in wRC+ against RHP at 101 with a .221/.312/.379 slash. I would presume that they come out well at home, especially after manager Stephen Vogt was critical of his team’s performance yesterday, calling it “uninspired”. But, frankly, this is a team that has probably overperformed a little bit and the fact that they’ve done it against some really good teams may lead to some value as they level off.
This is still a bad offensive ballclub and Jose Ramirez, who fouled a ball off his shin yesterday and was in serious pain, hasn’t gotten it going yet. We knew the offense would struggle, but what I find more concerning is that the bullpen is a mess right now. This has been a strength of the team for a long time, but this year’s group has a 5.08 ERA with a 4.19 xERA and a 4.36 FIP. The Orioles pen has a 3.62 ERA with a 3.55 xERA and a 3.96 FIP.
Lastly, this might be a factor or it might not, but new Orioles manager Craig Albernaz was Cleveland’s bench coach the last two seasons. He knows their personnel very well. I felt like the Guardians got out-scouted in the series against the Cardinals and we could see the same here.
With all of that being said, I think this game is closer to a coin flip than the line indicates, so the Orioles are worth an underdog look.
Pick: Orioles +109
Colorado Rockies at Houston Astros (-175, 8.5)
8:10 p.m. ET
The Rockies and Astros wrap up their weekday set with Houston looking for the sweep, a bit of retribution for getting swept at Coors Field earlier this month. It will be Ryan Weiss for the banged-up ‘Stros and Juan Mejia as the opener for the Rockies before turning it over to Chase Dollander.
Weiss last pitched on Apr. 10 and allowed two runs on four hits to the Mariners over 2.1 innings. This will be his first straight start of the season, but he’s worked multiple innings in relief four times, including a disastrous outing in Colorado where he allowed seven runs on eight hits in 2.2 innings. Obviously it’ll be different pitching at home for this one, but the Rockies have gotten a look at the KBO import, who spent time with the Diamondbacks and Royals before spending two seasons as a starter in Korea. He was excellent over there, so the Astros decided to give him another shot stateside.
He never really had good numbers as a prospect and I’m certainly skeptical going forward. While he has a 26.8% K%, he also has a 10.7% BB% and has allowed a 54.3% Hard Hit% with an 11.4% Barrel%.
Mejia will make his eighth appearance and third against Houston. He’s allowed five runs on 11 hits in 37 batters with a 5/4 K/BB ratio. So far, he’s worked 5.2 innings and faced 27 batters outside of Coors Field and those guys are collectively batting .417/.481/.583 with a .473 wOBA with 10 hits, a double, a dinger, and three walks. It might be a tough first inning for Mejia, who worked around two hits for a scoreless inning on Tuesday.
I’m a little bit concerned about Dollander in this bulk role here. He’s done it three times already this season, as he’s seen an uptick in velocity and also has increased his Extension this season, so that fastball is really getting up on hitters quick. But, he threw an inning on Apr. 12 and is really in a weird rhythm for a starting pitcher.
Dollander has a 4.61 ERA with a 3.96 xERA and a 4.84 FIP in 13.2 innings across 61 batters faced as a reliever. He has not made a single start yet. We’ll see if that changes, but he’s operating as a bulker right now. He has allowed a 62.8% Hard Hit% and a 16.3% Barrel% out of 43 batted ball events, but has a .275 BABIP against.
The Astros have one of the worst bullpens in baseball, as they have a 6.12 ERA with a 5.98 FIP. They do have a 4.69 xERA, so they’ve gotten a little unlucky, but still. Newly-minted closer Enyel De Los Santos has worked back-to-back days and four of the last six, so he may not be available. The Rockies pen has a 3.34 ERA, but a 4.09 xERA and a 4.06 FIP with a 76.8% LOB% doing a lot of heavy lifting for a low K% unit. I’d expect regression from them sooner rather than later.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-112)
