Player props have become one of baseball’s most entertaining ways to bet, offering value well beyond the moneyline, run line, or game total. Each day, this column highlights the best opportunities on the board — from strikeouts and hits to total bases and pitcher outs recorded — using matchup data, recent form, and betting trends to identify edges. Keep reading for the top MLB player prop picks for April 20. Also, make sure you check out our live VSiN programming for more. Our hosts and analysts will be all over the MLB, which is why it pays to be a VSiN Pro subscriber.
MORE: Check out the VSiN Pro Picks page for more bets from our talented hosts and analysts!
Monday Player Prop Best Bets
Below you’ll find my official plays on the player prop market for Monday. These are the ones that make the VSiN Pro Picks page and count towards my season-long record. I’ll write three up per day but I’ll add additional ones in an “Additional Best Bets” section. That’s also where you’ll find any late adds to my card.
Aaron Nola Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+124) vs. Cubs
Phillies at Cubs – 7:40 pm ET
Nola has gone two starts without reaching the six-strikeout mark, but he had seven in his first start of the year and nine in his second. He’s a pitcher that can be trusted to rack up Ks, even though he only had five in this same matchup in his last outing. Last year, in games with totals of 8 or lower, Nola had at least six strikeouts in five of his eight outings. Well, tonight’s meeting with the Cubs has a total of 7.5, so it’s expected to be a low-scoring game. Also, one of those five games in which Nola struck out six or more was an April 27 meeting with this Chicago team. So, while he went Under this number in his most recent start against the Cubs, he has recently had a good outing against them from a strikeout perspective. On top of that, he had seven Ks against this Chicago team in his only meeting with them in 2024.
Seth Lugo Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (+105) vs. Orioles
Orioles at Royals – 7:40 pm ET
Lugo has been awesome this season, as has given up only four earned runs in 24.1 innings of work. The 36-year-old’s ERA is a ridiculous 1.48 on the year, and he’s giving the Royals some outrageous production. However, I do think Lugo will start to come back to earth soon. Well, this feels like a game in which his numbers could take a hit. This Orioles team has some faults, but they’re undoubtedly dangerous when looking throughout the lineup. Also, last year, Lugo gave up at least three earned runs in six of the 12 games he started with totals of at least 9. He also gave up an average of 3.33 earned runs per game in those games. Well, tonight’s game has a total of 9.5. This is expected to a somewhat high-scoring game, and I don’t see Lugo remaining unscathed.
Shohei Ohtani Over 2.5 Total Bases (+115) vs. Rockies
Dodgers at Rockies – 8:40 pm ET
Ohtani’s total bases prop is up at 2.5 for tonight, and that’s a number I’m not entirely comfortable going Over with. However, the superstar has gone Over this number in two of the last three games, and I like this matchup for him. While Jose Quintana is a left-handed pitcher, Ohtani is 3 for 7 with three homers against him. So, there’s a good chance Ohtani can do some damage early in this one. However, I’ll also note that Quintana hasn’t pitched more than 4.1 innings in either of his starts this year. Well, Colorado had the second-worst bullpen ERA in baseball last season, and it’s highly unlikely that issue is going away in 2026. That means Ohtani will remain a threat late in the game — which is probably a given with him being a threat every time he’s at the plate.
Additional Best Bets
Slade Cecconi Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (-129) vs. Astros
Daylen Lile Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+107) vs. Braves
Brenton Doyle Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-129) vs. Dodgers
Tyler Soderstrom Over 0.5 Total Bases (-165) vs. Mariners
Noteworthy OptaAI Player Prop Edges
Check out the BRAND NEW OptaAI Player Props MLB pages for more of these! VSiN Pro subscribers can find 50+ player prop ideas on a daily basis! We’ll list the top edges in some of the biggest markets below, but there will always be a lot more to uncover on the pages themselves.
Justin Wrobleski Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+103) vs. Rockies
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him going for 5.96 strikeouts, suggesting these odds should be -244 — a +21.7% edge to the Over.
Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125) vs. Guardians
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 2.15 total bases, suggesting these odds should be -173 — a +18.9% edge to the Over.
Isaac Paredes Over 1.5 Total Bases (+181) vs. Guardians
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.79 total bases, suggesting these odds should be -115 — a +17.9% edge to the Over.
