MLB Bullpen Betting Systems Update:
This past week in MLB was the best of the season for our bullpen systems, as nearly everything performed as we are accustomed, and dedicated baseball bettors surely benefited. I will go over the highlights and detail some teams that are currently over- or underperforming in terms of bullpen performance in this week’s MLB Bullpen Systems update.
As I just indicated, it was a huge week, and you need look no further than the EASIEST results for proof of that. The angle that simply says to back better-rated bullpens that aren’t overpriced went 55-30 for +16.57 units of return. That is far and away our best performance of the season and cut out early losses by better than half. I usually preach patience on anything bullpen-oriented, since these things tend to solidify more and more as the season wears on. I feel the early struggles were indicative of that. In any case, when the EASIEST system does well, everything else tends to follow, and on cue, our Correlation Systems, our Importance of Pitching angle, our Underdog angle, and several other of the long-running bullpen systems we track all fared well. Take a look:
– Our two best correlation systems in the early going have been #2 and #3 as the #2 fade system is up to -6.05 units and over -28% ROI. Our #3 angle, the only FOLLOW angle, is up over +5 units of profit for the young season.
– The IMPORTANCE of PITCHING system (detailed below), continues to thrive and is personally one of the angles I give heavy credence to on a daily basis. So far, in 2026, after adding about +3 units of profit last week, is up over +10.5 units for the season.
– Most of my MLB Bullpen System followers turn to the BETTER BULLPEN UNDERDOG angle as their favorite. I fully endorse their support, as once again, after gaining over 8 units of profit last week alone, we are well in the black for the season.
– WORSE rated bullpen teams did particularly poorly last week in trying to extend winning streaks, and trying to end losing skids. Both of those FADE systems produced very well for bettors over the last week.
Looking more closely at some of the team-oriented specifics of what’s going on currently with bullpens, there have been some real surprises in the early going. Houston, Kansas City, and Tampa Bay have all struggled badly thus far, and in fact, all three are amongst the worst five teams in baseball in bullpen ERA. However, the teams I want to focus on most right now in terms of recent struggles are the Blue Jays and White Sox, the biggest downward movers on this week’s list.
– The defending champion Blue Jays got into the World Series last year by having depth in both their starting rotation and their bullpen. Their pitching has allowed 109 runs in 21 games so far in 2026, and their recent bullpen struggles are a major concern. In two series versus Milwaukee and Arizona, the Jays’ relief corps allowed runs in every game, and collectively posted a 6-game ERA of 6.33 to go along with a WHIP of 1.73. Pitching is the biggest reason Toronto enters the week on a 4-12 skid.
– The White Sox bullpen got off to a reasonably good start, at least in terms of against expectation. That said, their last seven game stats show an ERA of 6.43 with a WHIP of 1.86. With one of the lowest scoring offenses in the league, Chicago certainly can’t afford this poor performance of outs its relief staff.
On the other end of the spectrum is Cincinnati, who has roared to a NL Central-leading 14-8 start, in large part because of the pitching performance it is getting in the late innings from its relief staff. Any of you who follow my daily ratings and score estimates know that I have liked the Reds a whole lot more than the oddsmakers have seemed to in the early going. One of the biggest reasons has been bullpen performance. Going back to April 1st, the Reds’ bullpen has been active in 16 games, going 60 innings with an ERA of 1.65 and a WHIP of 1.14. They have also struck out 62 hitters, helping their team to a current 11-5 run. This team is a great example right now of how those setting the lines can provide value for bettors, as they are clearly not giving enough credence to this strong-performing bullpen unit.
Just a quick reminder that I like to include in these articles regularly. For those of you perhaps new to VSiN, and hence new to the MLB Bullpen Systems, they derive from my own fundamental belief that backing teams with better bullpen performance consistently over the course of a season will lead to profits, or at least minimize losses. It has done so every year I have shared the logic. It seems that even after many years of starting pitchers lasting fewer and fewer innings each season on average, oddsmakers are still predicating their lines on lineups and starting pitchers. In many cases, the relief pitchers are almost ignored. This is where the value is derived from if you have a solid and reliable set of bullpen ratings, systems, and even score simulations. I have all of this and share it with VSiN subscribers every day throughout the season.
Without further ado, here are the various system records through the first few weeks of the 2026 season that we will be tracking every day throughout. Note that on occasion, I will add or delete systems based upon my own logic or regression analysis:
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
For the 2025 regular season, better rated bullpen teams that were NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage 19% or higher and a starting pitcher edge of at least 20 went 1138-1004 for +0.15 units and an ROI of 0%. For 2026, this EASY system is off to a huge week, which reversed a slow start, 149-128 in all for -20.9 units, and an ROI of -7.5%. Last week, this system got back +16.57 so hopefully the worst is behind us.
It’s usually the case that EASIEST isn’t always BEST, although the nearly even returns on 2,142 games last year validate why I believe bullpens are so fundamental to baseball handicapping. That said, I still prefer discernment in my baseball wagering to provide for even bigger edges. This is one of the main reasons we produce such a multi-faceted Analytics Report each day. Part of that report is the MLB Bullpen Systems you’ll see below. This is where you should start your handicapping routine each day.
These next angles were new to the bullpen analysis around mid-season 2025. I named them CORRELATION systems because they rely 100% on the relationship between the Steve Makinen Ratings of the starting pitcher and team bullpens. Here are the early 2026 season records of these four angles we are now regularly tracking and will continue to do so into the year:
1) Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen HAS TO be accounted for in all games. This is a GO AGAINST angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 2-3 for -1.43 units and an ROI of -28.6%.
2) Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another GO AGAINST angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 8-13 for -6.05 units and an ROI of -28.8%.
3) Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the 2025 season. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. For 2026, these teams are off to a 46-27 start for +5.13 units and an ROI of 7.0%.
4) Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid FADE angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 22-26 for +8.51 units. I don’t expect this to last long.
** IMPORTANCE OF PITCHING SYSTEM, BULLPEN and STARTER **
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record but showing better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher ratings have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units and an ROI of +14.0%! The 2-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, success continues, as these teams are off to a strong 47-28 start, with +10.62 units and an ROI of +14.2%.
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.28 units. The 2026 record so far is 12-4 for +2.38 units, as big favorites are off to an unusually strong start overall. However, this angle lost -3 units last week.
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a three-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. The 2026 teams meeting this criteria are 17-11 but for -11.23 units so far. Be cautious with this one.
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle has been a lucrative fade system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the 2023-25 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season. The 2026 teams are off to a 11-6 start for -3.11 units. The ROI on that is -18.3%.
Better bullpen underdog teams are typically solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick em’). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! After a solid +8.13 unit week, the 2026 season is off to a decent start, 42-40 for +7.45 units (9.1% ROI)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 705-754 record, for +23.82 units (ROI 1.6%) in the full 2024-25 seasons. I believe this angle has some merit in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For 2025, these teams struggled out of the gate, but wound up 377-404 for +13.98 units. The 2026 record is 38-35 for +5.99 units thus far.
Worse bullpen teams usually struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 23-30 start for -3.37 units. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 5-15 for -9.54 units and an ROI of -47.7%.
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it comes off a phenomenal week of -11.16 units, and the overall season record is now 19-26 for -3.56 units.
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a 3-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I gave it a chance in 2025, and it recovered nicely, going 259-194 for +23.34 units (ROI 5.2%). It will be on the 2026 Bullpen System Reports once again and is off to a start of 25-22 for -8.61 units after a solid +6.14 unit week.
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 345-258 for +35.06 units over the last three regular seasons. The 2026 results so far show teams qualifying for it with a record of 14-17 for -9.32 units.
Again, these simple angles that can be qualified each day by utilizing the MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page on VSiN.com or easily found on the MLB Analytics Report. Keep in mind, the bullpen systems are just one small part of a very in-depth handicapping library available to readers.
These are the current key bullpen stats that have accumulated in the 2026 regular season, followed by my current 2026 Bullpen Power Ratings adjusted by me this week for performance. Along with that, I’ve listed the biggest upward/downward BP ratings teams from last week to this.
Key Bullpen Stats (2026 regular season stats through games of Sunday 4/19)
Top 5 Bullpen ERAs
1. CINCINNATI: 2.31
2. ATLANTA: 2.69
3. SAN DIEGO: 2.91
4. TEXAS: 2.91
5. COLORADO: 3.17
Worst 5 Bullpen ERAs
30. KANSAS CITY: 6.18
29. HOUSTON: 5.88
28. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 5.64
27. ST LOUIS: 5.4
26. TAMPA BAY: 5.38
Top 5 Bullpen WHIPs
1. ATLANTA: 1.05
2. ARIZONA: 1.14
3. BALTIMORE: 1.17
4. BOSTON: 1.18
5. SAN DIEGO: 1.19
Worst 5 Bullpen WHIPs
30. KANSAS CITY: 1.67
29. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 1.63
28. MINNESOTA: 1.62
27. HOUSTON: 1.61
26. ATHLETICS: 1.52
Top 5 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
1. MIAMI: 10.9
2. CLEVELAND: 10.78
3. BALTIMORE: 10.49
4. TORONTO: 10.06
5. PITTSBURGH: 9.91
Worst 5 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
30. WASHINGTON: 7.16
29. ST LOUIS: 7.2
28. NY METS: 7.73
27. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 7.86
26. TAMPA BAY: 7.86
Top 5 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
1. SAN FRANCISCO: 0.93
2. BOSTON: 0.98
3. ARIZONA: 1.06
4. BALTIMORE: 1.07
5. SAN DIEGO: 1.11
Worst 5 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
30. SEATTLE: 2.04
29. MILWAUKEE: 2
28. KANSAS CITY: 1.89
27. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 1.86
26. NY YANKEES: 1.73
I have used a manual process of analyzing daily box scores to build my Bullpen Power Ratings. In most cases, the end number is a reflection of the stats listed above with great consideration also given to overall talent, injuries, and momentum.
Biggest Movers in SM Bullpen Power Ratings since last week Monday (4/13):
Biggest upward movers (PR points)
1. COLORADO: +10 points
1. SAN FRANCISCO: +10
3. CINCINNATI: +5
3. ARIZONA: +5
5. DETROIT: +4
Biggest downward movers (PR points)
1. TORONTO: -13 points
2. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: -11
3. ST LOUIS: -8
3. KANSAS CITY: -8
5. NY YANKEES: -7
Steve’s Current Bullpen Ratings/Ranks (as of 4/20)
Rank – Team – Bullpen PR
1. SAN DIEGO: 262. ATLANTA: 25
3. CINCINNATI: 21
4. LA DODGERS: 18
5. SEATTLE: 18
6. DETROIT: 16
7. TEXAS: 16
8. CHICAGO CUBS: 15
9. BOSTON: 15
10. MILWAUKEE: 14
11. ARIZONA: 13
12. MIAMI: 10
13. CLEVELAND: 9
14. SAN FRANCISCO: 9
15. PHILADELPHIA: 8
16. NY METS: 7
17. PITTSBURGH: 7
18. NY YANKEES: 6
19. BALTIMORE: 6
20. ATHLETICS: 6
21. COLORADO: 4
22. TORONTO: 3
23. TAMPA BAY: -1
24. LA ANGELS: -1
25. KANSAS CITY: -4
26. HOUSTON: -9
27. ST LOUIS: -10
28. MINNESOTA: -11
29. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: -15
30. WASHINGTON: -17
These are sorted first by bullpen ranking and then by overall team power rating.
