Player props have become one of baseball’s most entertaining ways to bet, offering value well beyond the moneyline, run line, or game total. Each day, this column highlights the best opportunities on the board — from strikeouts and hits to total bases and pitcher outs recorded — using matchup data, recent form, and betting trends to identify edges. Keep reading for the top MLB player prop picks for April 28. Also, make sure you check out our live VSiN programming for more. Our hosts and analysts will be all over the MLB, which is why it pays to be a VSiN Pro subscriber.
MORE: Check out the VSiN Pro Picks page for more bets from our talented hosts and analysts!
Tuesday Player Prop Best Bets
Below you’ll find my official plays on the player prop market for Tuesday. These are the ones that make the VSiN Pro Picks page and count towards my season-long record. I’ll write three up per day, but I’ll add additional ones in an “Additional Best Bets” section. That’s also where you’ll find any late adds to my card. I go way lighter on these than I do NBA/NFL/CBB/CFB/Tennis. I also take a volume approach, as I’m working with a system I have found to be successful when it comes to shopping prices. So, if you notice I’m throwing a ton of plays up on a daily basis, don’t assume I’m putting a standard unit on all of them. My MLB units are 40% of what my normal units are.
Roman Anthony Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+130) vs. Blue Jays
Red Sox at Blue Jays – 7:07 pm ET
The Red Sox are having a brutal season, but this is still a team with some talent on the roster. Well, Anthony is one of the players that Boston fans are rightfully very excited about, and I like him to have a decent game tonight. Trey Yesavage will be on the hill for Toronto, and he’s a righty making his first start of the season. That means Yesavage might not be all that sharp when he gets out there, and that should bode well for Anthony. The lefty slugger is averaging 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs (HRR) per game this season, and that number goes up to 1.7 when he’s going up against righties on the road. That makes this an enticing price.
Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-108) vs. Brewers
Diamondbacks at Brewers – 7:40 pm ET
Carroll is having a strong season for Arizona, batting .287 with three homers, four triples, six doubles, and 17 RBIs in 25 games played. Oddly enough, Carroll has also done most of his good work against southpaws. despite being a much better hitter against righties. This season, Carroll is only batting .185 in 54 at-bats against righties, but the reality is he’s due to pick things up in a big way there. Well, perhaps it’ll happen tonight. Chad Patrick will be on the mound for Milwaukee tonight, and he has been good to start this season. But Carroll’s HRR total is just a little too reasonably priced not to take a chance on it.
Xander Bogaerts Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-102) vs. Cubs
Cubs at Padres – 9:40 pm ET
The Cubs have one of their better starters on the mound, as Edward Cabrera will be going tonight. The righty is 2-0 with a 2.73 ERA and 22 strikeouts in his first season in Chicago, and his stuff has looked stellar. However, Bogaerts is swinging a really hot bat right now, making it hard to go away from him. Bogaerts comes into this game having had at least two HRR in four of the last five. He’s also batting .309 on the season, averaging 2.1 HRR per game. That HRR number also happens to go up to 2.3 per game when playing in San Diego. Of course, it should be noted that Bogaerts is 0 for 5 against Cabrera in his career. However, that’s the type of small sample size you don’t want to put too much stock into.
Additional Best Bets
Bryson Stott Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+115) vs. Giants
Lenyn Sosa Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+119) vs. Red Sox
Carlos Narvaez Over 0.5 Total Bases (-110) vs. Blue Jays
Carson Benge Over 0.5 Total Bases (-115) vs. Nationals
Martin Perez Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-112) vs. Tigers
Jake Bauers Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+101) vs. Diamondbacks
Brandon Lockridge Over 0.5 Total Bases (-110) vs. Diamondbacks
Geraldo Perdomo Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+109) vs. Brewers
Michael Busch Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-108) vs. Padres
Noteworthy OptaAI Player Prop Edges
Check out the BRAND NEW OptaAI Player Props MLB pages for more of these! VSiN Pro subscribers can find 50+ player prop ideas on a daily basis! We’ll list the top edges in some of the biggest markets below, but there will always be a lot more to uncover on the pages themselves.
Matt Wallner Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-144) vs. Mariners
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him going for 1.68 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -434 — a +22.3% edge to the Over.
Luke Raley Over 1.5 Total Bases (+172) vs. Twins
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.96 total bases, suggesting these odds should be -139 — a +21.4% edge to the Over.
Michael Busch Over 1.5 Total Bases (+162) vs. Padres
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.99 total bases, suggesting these odds should be -144 — a +20.9% edge to the Over.
