The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, April 28, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* Teams that lost their previous game to a divisional rival from blowing a save have gone 162-86 SU (+41.70 units, ROI: 16.8%) as a pick-’em or favorite in the same-series follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-156 vs. STL)

* BALTIMORE letdown in follow-up game after divisional series vs. Boston: 11-25 (30.6%) -14.23 units, ROI: -39.5%
Trend Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (-136 vs. HOU)

* Since the start of the 2025 season, teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 409-244 for +37.30 units (ROI: 5.7%), when not matched against the same in the 2025 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-118 vs. BOS), SEATTLE (-122 at MIN), TEXAS (+102 vs. NYY), LA DODGERS (-293 vs. MIA)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%. The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices typically aren’t that high. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, the success is continuing as these teams are off to a strong 60-38 start for +8.15 units and an ROI of +8.3%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (-186 vs. WSH), LA ANGELS (-131 at CWS), TEXAS (+102 vs. NYY)

STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS

Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1%, and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a play-against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 4-4 for -0.48 units and an ROI of -6%.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): LA ANGELS (-131 at CWS)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another play-against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 15-22 for -8.74 units and an ROI of -23.6%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATHLETICS (-102 vs. KC), SAN DIEGO (+100 vs. CHC)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the 2025 season. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. For 2026, these teams are off to a 57-34 start for +6.75 units and an ROI of +7.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-118 vs. BOS), SEATTLE (-122 at MIN), TEXAS (+102 vs. NYY), LA DODGERS (-293 vs. MIA)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 28-34 for +9.43 units. I don’t expect this to last long.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (+113 at BAL), WASHINGTON (+153 at NYM)

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 midseason bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a 3-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. The 2026 teams meeting this criteria are 20-12 but for -10.17 units so far. Be cautious with this one.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (-207 vs. COL), LA DODGERS (-293 vs. MIA)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick-’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%. The 2026 season is off to a near-dead-even start, 56-63 for -0.88 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (+139 at PHI), TEXAS (+102 vs. NYY), ATHLETICS (-102 vs. KC), SAN DIEGO (+100 vs. CHC)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-25 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 28-38 start for -6.63 units. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 9-16 for -6.34 units and an ROI -25.4%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – WASHINGTON (+153 at NYM)

3+ games – TAMPA BAY (+109 at CLE), COLORADO (+169 at CIN), BOSTON (-102 at TOR), KANSAS CITY (-118 at ATH)

Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and the overall season record is now 29-37 for -4.46 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-120 at SD), MIAMI (+234 at LAD)

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 345-258 for +35.06 units over the last three regular seasons. The 2026 results so far show teams qualifying for it with a record of 16-20 for -10.91 units.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-131 vs. TB), NY METS (-186 vs. WSH), LA ANGELS (-131 at CWS)

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.

MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 452-366 for +30.75 units and an ROI of 3.8% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): COLORADO (+169 at CIN), KANSAS CITY (-118 at ATH)

MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 220-164 for +20.00 units and an ROI of 5.2% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-118 at ATH)

MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 383-327 but for -80.39 units and an ROI of -11.3% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-168 vs. SF)

MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 410-351 record for +56.10 units and an ROI of 7.4% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON (+113 at BAL), SAN FRANCISCO (+141 at PHI), DETROIT (+100 at ATL), ARIZONA (-102 at MIL), KANSAS CITY (-118 at ATH)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous game, they are posting a winning record at 2025-1919 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -268.47 units. This represents an ROI of -6.8%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY, ARIZONA, MINNESOTA, SAN DIEGO

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last game. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2,028-2,590 (43.9%) for -263.03 units and an ROI of -5.7% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+153 at NYM)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 4,106-3,565 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -513.26 units and an ROI of -6.7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA, MILWAUKEE, CHICAGO WHITE SOX, MINNESOTA, SAN DIEGO, LA DODGERS

Divisional blown saves lead to bounce-back
Teams that lost their previous game to a divisional rival from blowing a save have gone 162-86 SU (+41.70 units, ROI: 16.8%) as a pick-’em or favorite in the same-series follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-156 vs. STL)

Big underdogs after heartbreak fall flat
Heavy underdogs of +210 or more who lost their last game by only one run have gone 40-137 SU for -42.56 units (ROI: -24%) in the follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (FADE): MIAMI (+244 at LAD)When these teams are +220 or more, Under the total is 91-57-6 (61.5%) in their next game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIA-LAD (o/u at 8)

MLB Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.

MLB Team Strength Betting System #4:
Early season (March/April/May) road underdogs between +100 and +160 coming off a loss have gone 483-547 SU but for +73.56 units (ROI: 7.1%) since the start of the 2021 season (including 165-176 SU for +39.39 units in the last 341 divisional games).
System Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (+113 at PIT)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 245-161 in their last 406 tries (+38.29 units, ROI: 9.4%).
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (+109 at CLE)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIAMI +234 (+40 diff), COLORADO +169 (+20), SAN FRANCISCO +139 (+18), TEXAS +102 (+18), ATHLETICS -102 (+18)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TORONTO -118 (+25 diff), ATLANTA -120 (+16)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LAA-CWS OVER 7.5 (+1.0), TB-CLE OVER 7.5 (+0.5), DET-ATL OVER 8.5 (+0.5), SEA-MIN OVER 7.5 (+0.5), AZ-MIL OVER 8 (+0.5)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: COL-CIN UNDER 9 (-0.9)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.

(951) COLORADO (13-16) at (952) CINCINNATI (18-10)
Trend: COL is 12-32 (-11.52 units) on the road the last few seasons with starter Kyle Freeland
Trend: CIN is 5-1 (+4.45 units) vs. left-handed starters this season
Trends Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-207 vs. COL)

(953) SAN FRANCISCO (13-15) at (954) PHILADELPHIA (9-19)
Trend: Under the total is 9-3-2 (+5.70 units) when SF is a money line underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SF-PHI (o/u at 8)

(957) WASHINGTON (13-16) at (958) NEW YORK-NL (9-19)
Trend: NYM is 3-12 (-8.89 units) on the run line at home this season
Trend Match (FADE): NY METS (-1.5 vs. WSH)

(961) CHICAGO-NL (17-12) at (962) SAN DIEGO (19-9)
Trend: Edward Cabrera’s teams are 6-13 (-5.73 units) against opponents with a >57% winning percentage in the last 4+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-120 at SD)

(965) TAMPA BAY (17-11) at (966) CLEVELAND (15-15)
Trend: CLE is 29-13 (+15.03 units) in the -135 to +110 line range with starter Tanner Bibee the last few seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-131 vs. TB)

(967) HOUSTON (11-18) at (968) BALTIMORE (13-15)
Trend: HOU is just 3-10 (-8.44 units) on the road this season
Trend Match (FADE): HOUSTON (+113 at BAL)

(971) LOS ANGELES-AL (12-18) at (972) CHICAGO-AL (12-17)
Trend: Over the total is 12-6 (+5.40 units) when LAA is on the road this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LAA-CWS (o/u at 7.5)

(975) NEW YORK-AL (19-10) at (976) TEXAS (14-15)
Trend: TEX is 6-11 (-6.60 units) in the last 17 night games as a -130 favorite or less (including underdog) with starter Jacob deGrom
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (+102 vs. NYY)

(977) KANSAS CITY (11-17) at (978) ATHLETICS (15-13)
Trend: Aaron Civale’s teams are 23-11 (+6.07 units) against opponents with a < 43% win pct when he starts in last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): ATHLETICS (-102 vs. KC)

Trend: UNDER the total is 6-1 (+4.90 units) when ATH faces left-handed starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): KC-ATH (o/u at 9.5)

Series #7: San Francisco at Philadelphia, Tue 4/28-Thu 4/30
Trend: Home teams are on a 21-6 (77.8%, +15.08 units) run in the Giants-Phillies National League series
— The ROI on this trend is 55.9%
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-168 vs. SF)

Series #30: Boston at Toronto, Mon 4/27-Wed 4/29
Trend: Underdogs are on a 28-13 (68.3%, +22.67 units) run in the Toronto-Boston AL East rivalry.
— The ROI on this trend is 55.3%
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-102 at TOR)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): TAMPA BAY, ST LOUIS, BOSTON

DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last three seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 300-89 (77.1%) for +40 units and an ROI of 10.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast so consider the risk when backing.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1,074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: A unique system has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, NY METS, MILWAUKEE

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the 2023 season. Combined March/April ROI has been +0.4%, while the May, June, and July months have all slipped below 10% ROI, consecutively -11.9%, -10.6%, 14.2%. August has seen a bit of revival on return of -5.3%, while the seasons have ended with a September/October drain of -10.9%.
— Majority handle bettors on home teams in March/April of 2024-25 were 293-171 (63.1%) for +22.24 units and ROI of +6.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, CINCINNATI, NY METS, ATLANTA, MILWAUKEE, LA DODGERS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): COL-CIN, DET-ATL

Team-Specific Momentum-Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities

ATLANTA
Momentum after series vs. Philadelphia: 22-16 (57.9%) +4.19 units, ROI: 11%
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-120 vs. DET)

BALTIMORE
Letdown after series vs. Boston: 11-25 (30.6%) -14.23 units, ROI: -39.5%
Trend Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (-136 vs. HOU)

ATHLETICS
Letdown after series vs. Texas: 16-21 (43.2%) -6.10 units, ROI: -16.5%
Trend Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (-102 vs. KC)

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