Player props have become one of baseball’s most entertaining ways to bet, offering value well beyond the moneyline, run line, or game total. Each day, this column highlights the best opportunities on the board — from strikeouts and hits to total bases and pitcher outs recorded — using matchup data, recent form, and betting trends to identify edges. Keep reading for the top MLB player prop picks for May 5. Also, make sure you check out our live VSiN programming for more. Our hosts and analysts will be all over the MLB, which is why it pays to be a VSiN Pro subscriber.
MORE: Check out the VSiN Pro Picks page for more bets from our talented hosts and analysts!
Tuesday Player Prop Best Bets
Below you’ll find my official plays on the player prop market for Monday. These are the ones that make the VSiN Pro Picks page and count towards my season-long record. I’ll write three up per day, but I’ll add additional ones in an “Additional Best Bets” section. That’s also where you’ll find any late adds to my card. I go way lighter on these than I do NBA/NFL/CBB/CFB/Tennis. I also take a volume approach, as I’m working with a system I have found to be successful when it comes to shopping prices. My MLB units are 40% of what my normal units are.
Chris Bassitt Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+110) vs. Marlins
Orioles at Marlins – 6:40 pm ET
Bassitt hasn’t been consistently missing bats this year, but he is coming off a seven-strikeout performance against the Astros. The righty now gets to go up against a Marlins team that has a 23.6% strikeout rate since April 15. Miami is starting to struggle to make contact, making this a much better matchup than it was earlier in the year. That makes it hard not to like Bassitt at plus-money odds to go Over 4.5 strikeouts tonight. While this is available at +110 at one prominent shop, Pinnacle has it at -130. That’s a much sharper book, making the +110 look like an awesome price. Comparing to shops like Pinnacle has been a big part of my recent success with MLB props. I’m not going back on it now.
Cody Bellinger Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+100) vs. Rangers
Rangers at Yankees – 7:05 pm ET
I had Bellinger to go Over his 1.5 HRR total in last night’s game. And while it took him until very late in that 12-1 win to get there, he still ended up with five HRR. Bellinger has now gone Over this total of 1.5 in 12 of the last 17 games, and he’s averaging 3.2 HRR per game when playing at home against right-handed starters this year. This is essentially the same handicap as yesterday, so I won’t beat you over the head with it. But Bellinger gets another crack at a righty tonight. Sure, Jacob deGrom is the righty. He’s one of the best pitchers in baseball, so it’s not the greatest matchup in the world. But Bellinger has actually had success against him, going 6 for 22 with a double, a triple, two homers, and three RBIs. That said, I’m riding the hot bat.
Mike Trout Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-120) vs. White Sox
White Sox at Angels – 9:38 pm ET
Trout has been great to start the year, as he’s on pace for 45 homers and 95 RBIs. That would be a huge improvement after what we’ve seen from him in recent years, and the 34-year-old has also been healthy — knock on wood so it stays that way. Tonight, Trout’s matchup is interesting. While the superstar has been at his best against lefties this year, I do trust him to take advantage of matchups with mediocre righties. That definitely describes Erick Fedde. Trout is just 1 for 5 against the righty in his career, but the one hit was a homer. And I can see him cashing a play like this with one big swing.
Additional Best Bets
Cade Cavalli Over 14.5 Outs Recorded (-148) vs. Twins
Nolan Gorman Over 0.5 Total Bases (-120) vs. Brewers
Bubba Chandler Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-169) vs. Diamondbacks
Jung Hoo Lee Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-135) vs. Padres
Noteworthy OptaAI Player Prop Edges
Check out the BRAND NEW OptaAI Player Props MLB pages for more of these! VSiN Pro subscribers can find 50+ player prop ideas on a daily basis! We’ll list the top edges in some of the biggest markets below, but there will always be a lot more to uncover on the pages themselves.
Brice Matthews Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-114) vs. Dodgers
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him going for 1.53 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -361 — a +25.1% edge to the Over.
Ryan McMahon Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-141) vs. Rangers
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.58 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -387 — a +21.0% edge to the Over.
Will Benson Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-144) vs. Cubs
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.53 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -362 — a +19.3% edge to the Over.
