MLB Best Bets Today May 5
Fifteen games are on the schedule, but don’t be surprised if we get a snowout in Denver, as a rare Winter Storm Warning in May means freezing temps and that nasty white powder for the Mets and Rockies. A couple of other games are threatened by rain, but that’s the biggest problem area of the night and a game to probably avoid in fantasy, DFS, and betting, even if it somehow gets played.
Rotations are really turning over now, as 14 of today’s listed starters will make their eighth starts of the season and nine more, including Shohei Ohtani, will make their seventh starts of the campaign. That said, we still do have some random fill-ins, spot starters, and placeholders on the slate, so it’s another day of digging deep to try and find the best value.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for May 5:
Athletics at Philadelphia Phillies (-194, 9)
6:40 p.m. ET
After a long trip from Sacramento on Monday, the Athletics are set to open up a road trip in Philly, where the Phillies have gotten hot and just flew in yesterday themselves. After a 1-0 win in Miami to make it six wins in seven games since Don Mattingly took over for Rob Thomson, the Phils are back home with a good chance to keep rolling by entertaining the A’s and Rockies this week.
As the adage goes, “momentum is tomorrow’s starting pitcher” and that guy just happens to be Cristopher Sanchez coming out of last night’s win. Sanchez is following up last season’s career year with another excellent effort, as he has a 2.90 ERA with a 3.39 xERA and a 2.60 FIP over 40.1 innings of work. He’s only allowed three homers this season and has 50 strikeouts in his seven starts. I do need to mention that he’s allowed five unearned runs, so the defense has faltered a bit behind him, but he’s a ground ball merchant with a 57.3% GB% and he’s gotten very unlucky with a .395 BABIP. Out of 281 qualified pitchers, Sanchez is tied for 222nd in Outs Above Average from the defense behind him while he’s on the mound.
He has allowed some hard contact and is actually running a Barrel% that is about double what he had last season, so that’s another area where I would expect some improvement as the year goes along. It may even happen today, as the Athletics are just 21st in wOBA against LHP at .303 and 17th in SLG at .365. If we filter that further to facing lefties on the road, away from hitter-friendly Sacramento, they have just a .269 wOBA. Not very nice.
Luis Severino gets the nod for the A’s here, as he enters with an underwhelming set of numbers. He’s got a 4.46 ERA with a 4.29 xERA and a 4.37 FIP, as a big spike in walks paired with a .301 BABIP has created some problems. That said, Severino has only walked three batters and allowed two runs on 10 hits over his last 13.2 innings of work, so it seems as though some adjustments have been made. He’s induced more chases in his last two starts than in any other starts this season and has been more effective throwing first-pitch strikes.
Over the last two seasons, it’s been about home run prevention for Severino. Last season, he pitched to a lot of contact and only ran an 8.4% HR/FB%, which is outstanding. This season, he’s added more swing and miss back to his repertoire, but has also had those walk issues. His HR/FB% is up to 11.1%, which is still solid. What I like about Severino, especially tonight with the wind blowing out, is that he’s allowed a career-low Pull% of 35.1%. He’s forcing guys to use the big part of the park and still has his velo, which is actually up from last season pretty much across the board.
The A’s pen is rested following the off day. The Phillies are getting Jhoan Duran back tonight and had a relatively light workload in Miami. Despite the wind blowing out on a warm night, I’d expect Sanchez to induce a lot of ground balls and strikeouts and Severino is a savvy vet who has the chance to survive.
Pick: Under 9 (-112)
Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays (-131, 7)
6:40 p.m. ET
AL East rivals come together for Game 2 of this weekday set, as the Rays drew first blood with a 5-1 win yesterday. The Blue Jays only mustered one run despite 10 hits, as they went 1-for-8 with RISP. The Rays went 3-for-6 with RISP and only struck out five times to push across five runs, though three came on one first-inning swing from Ryan Vilade.
This is probably the best pitching matchup of the night with Kevin Gausman and Drew Rasmussen. Gausman is coming off of a rough start with four runs allowed on four hits over 5.2 innings against the Twins. But, it should be noted that was his first true outdoor start of the season. He’s made four starts at Rogers Centre, one in Milwaukee, and one in Arizona.
I can’t recall whether or not the roof was open in Arizona for his April 19 start, but given that he only averaged 92.4 mph with his fastball and averaged 92.3 mph in Minnesota, it could have been. He might need the climate-controlled environment of a dome and he’ll have that tonight at Tropicana Field. In the starts where he’s averaged 93 or better with his fastball, Gausman has posted SwStr% of 12.1%, 14.4%, 10.7%, 21.3% and 19.3%. So, I’m confident with a truly indoor outing here that he’ll have his velo and that should elevate his potential.
I don’t really have bad things to say about Rasmussen, who has a 2.64 ERA with a 2.60 xERA and a 3.66 FIP with a pristine K/BB ratio and a ton of weak contact against. He’s been spectacular for the most part and has allowed one run on six hits with 13 strikeouts over 12 innings in his two home starts. I’m not sure that the Blue Jays will have a ton of success against him.
However, the Rays bullpen is where I think the Jays could have some advantages. Closer Bryan Baker has pitched three of the last four days and so has southpaw Ian Seymour. It would be a third appearance in four days for Kevin Kelly and Casey Legumina. The Rays are trying to stretch out Griffin Jax as a starter. He threw 45 pitches on Saturday and will likely piggyback with Jesse Scholtens on Thursday. It’s possible that they abandon that plan if they need him, but I don’t think that they will.
Cole Sulser would be working back-to-back days and Garrett Cleavinger just came off the IL. Given all of those bullpen worries, plus what I mentioned above about Gausman getting another indoor outing, I think the Jays are worthy of a look here.
Pick: Blue Jays +109
Minnesota Twins (-115, 9.5) at Washington Nationals
6:45 p.m. ET
Good hitting weather awaits the Twins and Nationals as this interleague series gets going in D.C. Temps in the 80s and breezes blowing out to left center should absolutely help the hitters here and my read is that it will help Washington more in this particular matchup than Minnesota.
The reason is Taj Bradley. Bradley’s change of scenery from St. Pete to St. Paul has been really beneficial for him, as he has a 2.85 ERA with a 3.99 xERA and a 3.82 FIP in his 41 innings of work. He’s struck out 44 and walked 15 with just five homers allowed. However, his 4.08 xFIP and contact quality metrics suggest that a correction is coming. One already came two starts ago when he allowed six runs on seven hits, including four homers, to his old team at the Trop. He bounced back at home against the Mariners last time out, but I’m very worried about this start for him.
His 25.3% K% is impressive, but it’s lumped in with a 55.7% F-Strike, 10.9% SwStr%, and a 27.8% Chase Rate. Those are not numbers that scream sustainability for a 25% K%. He’s allowed a 46.9% Hard Hit% and now the Barrels are starting to come. He allowed just three Barrels in his first five starts. He’s allowed eight in his last two. He’s a pretty extreme line drive/fly ball guy with just a 33% GB%. I don’t love that combo tonight given the weather conditions.
Meanwhile, Nationals starter Cade Cavalli seems to be in the midst of a breakout. The promising prospect suffered a setback with Tommy John surgery that caused him to miss all of 2023, most of 2024, and he had a rough 2025 across four levels, including 10 MLB starts with a 4.25 ERA. But, he’s got a 3.82 ERA with a 3.80 xERA and a 2.85 FIP over seven starts this season. A .419 BABIP is a concern, but he only has a 3.3% HR/FB%. He’s long been a ground ball artist and his 43.7% GB% this season is actually about the lowest he’s had at any level, but he’s struck out 20 in his last two starts and has only allowed a 36.8% Hard Hit% with a 5.7% Barrel%.
I trust Cavalli to keep the ball down and in the park a lot more than I trust Bradley in this start. The Nationals bullpen is actually working well together right now for first-year skipper Blake Butera. The Twins have lost 13 of 17 since starting 11-7. I never believed that they were a good team and I definitely don’t at this point. Despite some decent relief work this week, they still have a 5.70 bullpen ERA over the last two weeks. It’s the Nationals for me tonight.
Pick: Nationals -105
Cleveland Guardians (-118, 7.5) at Kansas City Royals
7:40 p.m. ET
Gavin Williams gets the call for Cleveland tonight, as the Royals had to pull a switcheroo and list Stephen Kolek as tonight’s starter. Some might think that Noah Cameron getting scratched is a positive for a Cleveland team that hasn’t hit lefties well for a long time, but they are actually sixth in SLG and eighth in wRC+ against southpaws this season.
Righties with competent changeups are actually their kryptonite, a fact that was on display again last night when Michael Wacha completely shut down their offense. Kolek doesn’t have nearly as accomplished of a changeup as Wacha, but when the Royals acquired him from the Padres in the Freddy Fermin deal, it was his most effective pitch in five starts over 33 innings of work with a 1.91 ERA, 3.83 xERA, and a 2.71 FIP.
Kolek has been rehabbing an oblique injury in Triple-A and pitched to a 2.76 ERA with a 3.32 FIP in 16.1 innings for Omaha. His .360 BABIP is pretty misleading, as he only allowed a 29.4% Hard Hit%. When Kolek was a big leaguer with the Royals last season, he had a 19.3% CH%, easily the highest changeup rate of his career. He didn’t throw a lot of them in Triple-A, but I’d expect a lot here to neutralize Cleveland’s platoon advantages.
Kolek’s career numbers aren’t as telling as Wacha’s from a platoon advantage standpoint, but he has held lefties to a .292 wOBA over 343 plate appearances and has a higher K% in that split. I don’t think Stephen Vogt deviates much tonight like he did last night by starting David Fry, who hit a two-run homer off of Wacha to account for all of Cleveland’s offense. Wacha’s extended start meant that the Royals only needed to use two relievers and they threw 16 combined pitches, so everybody is available tonight.
Williams has danced around some hard contact this season, as he sports a 2.70 ERA with a 3.84 xERA and a 3.88 FIP over 43.1 innings of work. The walk issues that plagued him early in the season seem to be gone, as he walked 14 guys in his first three starts and has only walked five since. He gave up six runs to the Blue Jays two starts ago and has allowed eight runs total in his other six starts.
With cold temps and the wind blowing in to knock down some fly balls, I’m not terribly worried about his 13.3% Barrel% tonight. Also, over 50% of batted balls have been grounders, so that’s another positive in my eyes. Also, he’s struck out 31% of opposing hitters.
The Guardians bullpen scares the hell out of me, but both Erik Sabrowski and Cade Smith are well-rested and should be deployed tonight, whether it’s to stay sharp or protect a lead.
These are also two top-10 teams in Outs Above Average, so we should get a pretty crisp game in the field.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-110)
Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Angels (-115, 9)
9:38 p.m. ET
The White Sox racked up a 6-0 win against the Angels last night and will be looking to ride a pretty strong wave into tonight’s game. The South Siders have won six of their last seven and that includes four straight wins over the Angels after sweeping them in Chicago last week. Perhaps it helps the Angels tonight that they just faced Erick Fedde, but Fedde had his best outing of the season against them, so maybe not.
He allowed two runs on five hits over seven innings. Two of the hits were solo homers, but around those two Barrels, he induced a ton of weak contact with a 30% Hard Hit% and an average exit velocity of 83.8 mph. The White Sox have seen a ton of individual player development already and a lot on the pitching side thanks to some fresh perspectives, including pitching coach Zach Bove, who was formerly with the Royals. Overall, Fedde, who has been a starter four times and a bulk reliever twice, has a 3.24 ERA with a 3.32 xERA. His high FIP is a byproduct of five homers and a low K%, but all five homers have been solo shots.
The Angels will send Sam Aldegheri to the hill here. In five Triple-A starts this season, he’s allowed 21 runs on 29 hits in 24.1 innings of work with a 23/13 K/BB ratio. The 24-year-old southpaw has worked just 28.1 innings at the MLB level and allowed 27 runs on 37 hits in 28.1 innings. Only 20 of the runs are earned, but he has a 24/21 K/BB ratio in five starts and three relief appearances, including a run on two hits in a 1.2-inning relief outing earlier this year.
The White Sox enter this game ninth in wRC+ against LHP, including a 10% BB% and rank second in HR with 17 despite being 14th in plate appearances. This is a young team growing and improving and they look pretty dangerous right now, sitting seventh in wOBA and wRC+ over the last 14 days. Whereas the Angels have front office and dugout dysfunction permeating the ballclub again. Kurt Suzuki seems in over his head and this downward spiral just keeps going, as the Angels have lost 13 of their last 15 games.
Yeah, I’ll give the White Sox a look with a rested bullpen as a short underdog.
Pick: White Sox -105
