MLB Playoff Bets Based on Rest-of-Season Simulation:
A couple of years ago, I performed an exercise coming out of the MLB All-Star break in which I simulated the rest-of-season schedule against my power ratings. As much as I did reasonably well with the article, there were a couple of clear weak spots. First, at the time, the league was still two weeks away from the trade deadline and there was a plethora of moves that wound up significantly affecting the strength levels of several teams. Second, there were injury situations that gained much more clarity over the next couple of weeks that I didn’t account for. As such, I promised myself that I would wait until the passing of the trade deadline until I would perform the exercise again. Well, that time has come! As we head into August with two months of regular season baseball yet to come, it’s a perfect time to take a snapshot of the season thus far and add to it what might come based on the remaining schedules for each team and the current power ratings I am offering.
With around 52-54 games left for each team, some of the divisional races are wide open for the taking between at least a pair of teams. It is in these divisions where I have found that simulating the rest of the season based on current power ratings, injury situations, and remaining schedule can pay dividends, particularly when you match the current division win odds against the results.
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There are some important points I need to share before I reveal the projections I’ve come up with for the rest-of-season schedules based upon my current power ratings. Consider these key fundamentals and roster points in full before heading to the counter to place your wagers.
- The current power ratings don’t account for the typical September “overpricing,” as oddsmakers tend to boost the lines on the better teams in conjunction with the rising stakes of games. They also don’t reflect any late-season resting of starters after playoff spots have been clinched. In both cases, game lines can swing by as much as 50 cents on a contest, which can account for about 0.1 wins/losses on my projections. Multiply this by five, and you can see how some changes would occur to the projected standings.
- I projected five-man rotations for every team based on recent usage. Projecting every starting pitcher for the remaining 750 or so games is impossible, so this could also throw off the numbers. For instance, some teams will have double-headers remaining on their schedule thanks to the late season start and earlier postponements. Naturally, these rotations will rely on spot starters in these unusual scheduling circumstances. The teams with the most games remaining from now till the end of the season whose rotations might be thrown off most are Cleveland, the Braves, and Twins, all with 55 games remaining.
- I have made several assumptions and/or speculations based on when some key players may return to the field for their respective teams from injured lists. These key players include Fernando Tatis of the Padres, Mookie Betts of the Dodgers, Justin Verlander and Kyle Tucker of the Astros, Christian Yelich for the Brewers, plus Mike Trout of the Angels, and Carlos Correa of the Twins, among others. Several other pitcher and hitter injury situations are reflected, but these are the big ones. Some players, like Texas stud pitcher Jacob deGrom, are expected back, but the timetable is unclear. He would make a massive difference if he does return. The latest projections show a 9/1 potential date, so that is what I used.
- I ran all of the simulation numbers for games of Thursday, 8/1/24, through the end of the season, ensuring that all teams reached the 162-game full season mark.
If you’re particularly interested in the MLB playoff matchups projected, they would be as follows:
American League:
#1) NY YANKEES – bye
#2) CLEVELAND – bye
#3) HOUSTON vs. #6) KANSAS CITY
#4) BALTIMORE vs. #5) MINNESOTA
National League:
#1) PHILADELPHIA – bye
#2) LA DODGERS – bye
#3) MILWAUKEE vs. #6) NY METS
#4) ATLANTA vs. #5) SAN DIEGO
Keep in mind that these projections are done as a way for you to spot potential value on the current odds boards at DraftKings Sportsbook, whether that be by my schedule strength calculations or by the actual won-lost projections after 162 games. I’ll go through each division and share my take on the findings and any potential value spots.
AL East Division
Despite Baltimore owing a half-game lead in the standings as of Thursday morning, my projections show the Yankees overtaking the Orioles and winning the AL East by 2.3 games. This is in large part because New York owns the league’s easiest remaining schedule, according to my schedule simulation. Baltimore is still in a comfortable spot to reach the postseason and claim the top wildcard spot. Interestingly, the Rays (#1) and Red Sox (#4) both place in the league’s top four for schedule difficulty the rest of the way, and with the Rays having departed with several key pieces at the trade deadline and the Boston bullpen on a brutal stretch over the last month or so, it’s very difficult to see either of these teams injecting themselves back into the serious playoff hunt.
MLB Playoff Bet: Yankees are a good bet to win the division at -170, although I’m not all that excited about the price here. All it would take is one key injury to the lineup or starting rotation for Baltimore to hold the value. Let’s go with New York.
AL Central Division
The Twins have a relatively easy schedule the rest of the way, thus the fairly low return on investing in them to overtake Cleveland. Still, that looks highly unlikely, as my projections only show Minnesota picking up 1.3 games the rest of the way. The intriguing team here to me is Kansas City, as after the sweep of the White Sox, Manager Matt Quatraro’s team is a season-high 11 games over .500. The Royals play what is easily shown as the division’s toughest schedule. Still, they arguably have the most stable, talented, and deep starting rotation of any of the five teams, plus the league’s hottest hitter and potential MVP candidate in SS Bobby Witt Jr.
MLB Playoff Bet: Kansas City to make the playoffs at -135. The Royals are on pace to beat their season win total by 11.6 games. The just-completed sweep of the White Sox seems to have ignited a fire in this team, and despite the tough remaining schedule, my numbers show Kansas City wrapping up the final wildcard spot with a solid 2.7-game cushion.
AL West Division
Before its current six-game hot hitting stretch versus the pitching-poor White Sox and Red Sox, Seattle’s offense had been on a 20-game stretch in which it scored just 62 runs. Eliminate a rare 11-run game in that stretch, and the 19-game average drops to 2.7 RPG. In my opinion, that is more the norm than the infrequent offensive outbursts. It can’t be argued that the Astros lineup is the far stronger option in this case, so despite the teams currently being tied in the standings, I see little reason to believe the Mariners can withstand the Houston push. I do like the Randy Arozarena addition to the M’s lineup. Still, if you look at what figures to be returning for Houston in the coming weeks, namely Kyle Tucker and Justin Verlander, it’s hard to imagine Manager Joe Espada’s team not finishing the deal. Elsewhere, Texas is the defending World Series champion, can get hot, and could get a massive boost if Jacob deGrom were to return, but I fear the Rangers have dug too deep of a hole.
MLB Playoff Bet: Seattle to not make the playoffs at -120. The Mariners have a significantly tougher schedule than Houston, and the Astros are seeking to reach an eighth straight ALCS. Although it looked possible earlier in the season, it just doesn’t seem anymore that the Astros playoff streak will end this year. I also wouldn’t have a problem if someone wanted to take a flyer on Texas to reach the postseason at +700.
NL East Division
The Mets have been a different team since June 3rd, turning a 24-35 record at the time into a 57-51 mark currently. Last year proved that it doesn’t matter how you get there in terms of the playoffs, just that you do. However, as a bettor and a fan, I would prefer that my team did it by playing its best baseball towards the end of the season.
New York is the hot team now, Philadelphia is floundering, and Atlanta doesn’t look to be itself this season, particularly on the road. Am I saying the Mets can overcome an eight-game deficit to the Phillies the rest of the way? Not necessarily, but with a far easier schedule remaining than the frontrunners, New York could make things interesting down the stretch, and +2500 to win the division could be the longest odds I might take a flyer on.
MLB Playoff Bet: New York to make the playoffs at +115. It’s almost hard to believe that a team that is currently just one-half game out of the final wildcard spot and playing perhaps the best baseball in the entire league over the last two months could be priced as an underdog to reach the playoffs.
NL Central Division
For as much as the fact that most fans, bettors, and analysts would project that the Brewers would be the most likely team to fade from its current comfortable division-leading cushion, my projections show Milwaukee building on its current 5-game lead over the Cardinals and finishing the season 6.4 games ahead. St. Louis topped out at six games over .500 on July 8th after making a lengthy two-month rally from nine games under .500 prior. However, the team has cooled again and is just 8-10 in its last 18 games.
Making matters worse, they play a far tougher schedule the rest of the way than Milwaukee. If any team has the chance to challenge the Brewers, it could be Pittsburgh, as the starting staff has been beefed up significantly by Paul Skenes, and Jared Jones is expected back soon. Also of note in the NL Central, the Cubs play the easiest schedule in the National League the rest of the way, and their once maligned bullpen has been on a torrid stretch over the last month. Manager Craig Counsell’s starting pitching is also the highest-rated of the five divisional teams. The most recent problem has been the offense. If they can overcome that and put it all together, who knows?
MLB Playoff Bet: The only wager I could endorse here is St. Louis not to make the playoffs at -240. The Cardinals have a tougher remaining schedule than any of the wildcard contenders and are currently trailing a couple of teams in pursuit of the last playoff spot. They did make some trade deadline moves to enhance their chances, but nothing needle-moving as far as I’m concerned.
NL West Division
Although the Dodgers have been floundering in recent weeks, and their division lead is down to 4.5 games over the Padres, it’s hard to see a team with this much talent unraveling to the point of losing that lead. LA expects Mookie Betts back this month, and the starting rotation is slowly but surely coming back into form. The return of a healthy Walker Buehler and Yoshinobu Yamamoto would bring that group to an elite level. It has been encouraging to see San Diego’s recent surge, as the Padres were a team that was on an underachieving trend for far too long. They are on a 9-1 surge as they prepare to host Colorado this weekend. Arizona is also an interesting case, seemingly getting hot in time to make another late-season push for the playoffs. The defending NL champs are 17-6 and anxiously await the return of starting pitcher Merrill Kelly this month.
MLB Playoff Bet: For as much as Arizona is hot and making another late-season surge, the only bet I would lean to for the NL West right now is the Diamondbacks not to make the playoffs at +105. The Padres and Mets are also both playing their best baseball of the year right now, and is anybody ready to say the Braves will be the team that doesn’t make it to October?
