MLB Best Bets Today October 4
The AL takes a break and the NL pushes forward with two Sunday games in the NLDS. The Padres and Brewers have a quick turnaround after last night’s dramatic and controversial game to play at 4 p.m. ET. The Braves and Dodgers will play another hot one in Chavez Ravine at 8 p.m. ET. Those four teams will take a break and we’ll get Game 2s in the ALDS tomorrow.
Throughout the playoffs, I’ll look at every game on the schedule, even if I don’t have any bets. I’ll typically do this on the morning of the games, trying to achieve as much lead time as possible. Bullpen usage is critically important in the postseason, so I’d be doing a major disservice to do anything before the games are finished and that usually means writing up my thoughts in the morning.
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Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats.
Here are the MLB best bets today for October 4:
Padres vs. Brewers (-143, 7)
4 p.m. ET
The ground rules at American Family Field do account for parts of the roof and other things over the playing surface, so the right call was made with Ty France’s majestic, potential home run ball that landed in the glove of Jackson Chourio. We’ll see how the Padres respond to last night’s happenings, as they feel wronged and a lot of baseball observers are on their side.
Like I’ve already said a few times this postseason, “momentum is tomorrow’s starting pitcher” and Michael King took a no-hitter into the seventh in Game 1 of the Wild Card Round against the Cubs, so the Padres are hoping that he can provide some momentum coming off of that great start.
Both bullpens had heavy lifts last night, so the Brewers are looking for a strong start from Logan Henderson. Jacob Misiorowski had 30 foul balls hit off of him last night, which drove up his pitch count and limited him to four innings. The Brewers bullpen pitched five shutout frames to secure the win, while the Padres got just 2.2 innings from Robbie Ray and had to cobble together 5.1 frames. Five relievers worked for the Brewers, who needed 17 pitches from Trevor Megill over 1.1 innings, 16 from Abner Uribe (who recorded just one out), 23 from Aaron Ashby, 11 from Antonio Senzatela, and 20 high-stress pitches for DL Hall.
On the San Diego side, four relief arms were deployed, including Adrian Morejon, who threw 31 pitches. As one of just two lefties in the pen, he’s available out of necessity today, but we’ll see if Craig Stammen tries to avoid using him.
King threw seven shutout innings with one hit allowed against Chicago, racking up eight strikeouts against three walks. For a guy who only posted a 21% K% during the regular season, the swing-and-miss uptick was a sight for sore eyes for San Diego, as he had 17 Whiffs out of 62 strikes, but I don’t really expect that to be the norm. He’s a guy who only had a 30% Chase Rate during the regular season and relying on in-zone Whiffs is a tough way to go.
Like most playoff hurlers, King’s velo was elevated and he also went to his best pitch more often, a sweeper that had a 44% Whiff% and more spin than normal. That said, King started with an average sinker velocity of 96.3 mph and dropped each successive inning, eventually getting down to 93.2 mph in the seventh. He also had dropped 4.5 mph on his sweeper velo. It wasn’t the healthiest of seasons for King and I am worried to see the path that his velocity took over the course of that last start.
Henderson, who had a 2.47 ERA with a 2.73 xERA and a 3.32 FIP over 98.1 innings in the regular season hasn’t pitched since September 23. The bye is obviously a benefit because the Wild Card Round just adds more difficulty, but it is hard to stay sharp and that’s true for both pitchers and hitters. Henderson allowed one run on five hits with three strikeouts and three walks in five innings in that final tune-up. Rolling out here in his first career playoff outing could be a bit tricky.
I like the Over 7 today. Henderson could give up some early runs like Miz did yesterday, given the situation and the long layoff. The teams combined for 16 hits and eight walks yesterday, but also combined to go 3-for-18 with RISP. They had chances. The deeper you get into a series, the better you start to pick up the relievers as well. I don’t know that we’ll see a long start for Henderson, so guys who worked yesterday for Milwaukee will be called into action again. That could give the Padres an advantage.
Pick: Over 7 (-114)
Braves vs. Dodgers (-157, 7)
8 p.m. ET
Much like yesterday, we’ve spent the morning not knowing who would start for the Braves. Yesterday’s starter wound up being Dylan Dodd and he was very good, but then the Dodgers broke through for three homers in the middle innings and wound up with a 5-3 decision. We know that Blake Snell will start for the Dodgers. Chris Sale could feature in some way for the Braves, if not start, though his odd, and maybe unnecessary, relief appearance in Game 3 of the Wild Card Round has left some questions as to whether or not it’s a good idea to roll with him.
The Braves are in a tough spot because falling down 2-0 to the Dodgers with Yoshinobu Yamamoto looming in Game 3 is not ideal. I don’t know that Sale is the right call here, especially since Ken Rosenthal reported that a source said Sale came out of Thursday’s relief outing “sore”. With Monday’s off day, Weiss can aggressively use his high-leverage relievers, something he opted not to do on Saturday, suggesting to me that Sale is not the preferred option today. But, I could be wrong. I don’t know when we’ll know and that makes this game difficult to bet on.
What I can say is this – Raisel Iglesias hasn’t pitched since Wednesday and neither has Dylan Lee. Didier Fuentes, who worked all three Wild Card games, has had a couple days off. Robert Suarez was only used on Thursday. This could be a live Under spot, depending on how the early innings play out and how Weiss deploys these arms. Everybody is available in the Dodgers pen, as Alex Vesia had the highest workload with 15 pitches, though Tanner Scott was not sharp yesterday following the long layoff.
The starters early innings could be a little dicey, but as the better arms roll out late, I think a live Under could be in play. It’ll be up to the feel of the situation and the usage from the managers.
