Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, October 4, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Teams playing as underdogs (or pick ’em) in a MLB postseason series game after their bullpen was used for 5+ innings in the same series prior game are just 42-67 SU (-15.21 units, ROI: -14%) since 2016.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN DIEGO (+114 at MIL), ATLANTA (+130 at LAD)
Trend: Under the total is 23-10-1 (+12.70 units) when starter Michael King is an underdog since the start of the 2020 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SD-MIL (o/u at 7)
Trends and Systems for the MLB Postseason
Notable Postseason Team Trends (since 2015)
* MILWAUKEE: 22-9 to the Under +12.1 units
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SD-MIL (o/u at 7)
Line angles
Home favorites of -112 to -180 in the MLB playoffs dating back to 2018 have been very vulnerable. They are just 93-87 SU (-30.10 units, ROI: -16.7%)
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE (-137 vs SD), LA DODGERS (-157 vs ATL)
Stats from last game trends
Teams playing as underdogs (or pick ’em) in a MLB postseason series game after their bullpen was used for 5+ innings in the same series prior game are just 42-67 SU (-15.21 units, ROI: -14%) since 2016.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN DIEGO (+114 at MIL), ATLANTA (+130 at LAD)
Trends based upon regular season records
In the last six playoff seasons following a full regular season (excluding 2020), MLB teams that won 100 games or more are on a slide of 18-28 SU (-20.7 units, ROI: -45%) and 13-33 on run lines (-23.1 units, ROI: -50.2%) in playoff games. The record of these teams in 2023…1-9 SU and 0-10 RLs.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE, LA DODGERS
Totals angles
The last four MLB postseasons have been very good for Over bettors, as that side of the total has gone 108-102-1, and Overs have produced a return of +21.32 units, an ROI of 10.2%. Total odds are usually heavily shaded towards Unders in recent postseasons.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): SD-MIL (o/u at 7), ATL-LAD (o/u at 7)
Divisional round angle
Home field advantage has been particularly prevalent in the divisional series when the host is leading in the series or even. Those hosts are on a surge of 71-51 SU (+4.47 units, ROI: 2.6%) and 63-59 on run lines (+11.35 units, ROI: 9.3%) since ‘15.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE, LA DODGERS
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored 2 runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2334-2919 (44.4%) for -265.91 units and an ROI of -5.1% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Match (FADE): SAN DIEGO (+114 at MIL)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 283-183 in their last 466 tries (+47.02 units, ROI: 10.1%).
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-137 vs SD)
Winning Streak Betting System #10:
Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 171-176 (-79.33 units, ROI: -22.9%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-137 vs SD)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 685-687 for +9.98 units, good for +0.7% ROI.
Ratings Match: MILWAUKEE -137 (+11 diff)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(925) SAN DIEGO (93-72) at (926) MILWAUKEE (104-59)
Trend: SD is the most profitable team in MLB in day games this season (39-22, +16.84 units)
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (+114 at MIL)
Trend: Under the total is 23-10-1 (+12.70 units) when starter Michael King is an underdog since the start of the 2020 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SD-MIL (o/u at 7)
(927) ATLANTA (96-70) at (928) LOS ANGELES-NL (101-62)
Trend: LAD is 52-69 (-22.87 units) on the run line in night games this season
Trend Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-1.5 vs ATL)
Top Head-to-Head Series Trends
Series #2: Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers
Trend: ATLANTA is 8-3 (72.7%, +6.97 units) in their last 11 games versus LAD
– The ROI on this trend is 63.4%.
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+130 at LAD)
Series #4: San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers
Trend: Home teams are on an 8-2 (80%, +5.38 units) surge in the Padres-Brewers set
– The ROI on this trend is 53.8%.
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-137 vs SD)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 AM ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% three-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-157 vs ATL)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similar to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Match (CONSIDER): SAN DIEGO (+114 at MIL)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Majority handle bettors have endured three consecutive poor playoff seasons in 2023-2025, with a combined record of 64-64 (50%) for -19.84 units and an ROI of -15.5% (8-5, +2.41 units in 2026).
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN DIEGO (+114 at MIL), LA DODGERS (-157 vs ATL)
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