MLB Best Bets Today October 1
It is wild that the Phillies and Braves didn’t know what time they were going to play today until the other series reached a resolution, whether there would be a Game 3 or if they would end in sweeps. As it turns out, we’ll get the one and only night game of the series in a winner-take-all battle at Truist Park. As of this morning, neither team had announced a starting pitcher, but we know who will be involved for both teams. It’s just a matter of who will start the game and when the others will come in.
Throughout the playoffs, I’ll look at every game on the schedule, even if I don’t have any bets. I’ll typically do this on the morning of the games, trying to achieve as much lead time as possible. Bullpen usage is critically important in the postseason, so I’d be doing a major disservice to do anything before the games are finished and that usually means writing up my thoughts in the morning.
All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
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Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats.
Here are the MLB best bets today for October 1:
Phillies (-118, 7.5) vs. Braves
8 p.m. ET (NBC/Peacock)
Who will play the role of lead actor and who will be the supporting actors is still up in the air, but the Phillies are likely going to use Zack Wheeler in some capacity today, which is why they are favored over the Braves in this elimination game. Aaron Nola could very well feature prominently in this game as well, and we know that Jhoan Duran, who was not used yesterday, will get a shot at redemption at some point. If not redemption, then at least to go out there and keep a deficit close.
On the Braves side, the expectation is that left-handers Ray Kerr and Brent Suter will work in an opener capacity and possibly match up with Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber somewhere in the middle innings. Grant Holmes is available for multiple innings as well. Both teams may know what they’re going to do and just aren’t letting anybody else know. Both teams may also be waiting to see how the game state plays out.
Wheeler threw 97 pitches in Sunday’s clincher. My guess is that we either get an opener in front of Nola or a true start for Nola and Wheeler will be used in leverage if needed. Because Jesus Luzardo was so effective in Game 1, Don Mattingly and the decision-makers have to feel confident about rolling him out for Game 1 of the NLDS if they make it. Yesterday would have been a “side day” for Wheeler coming off of Sunday’s start, and we’ve often seen managers use starters on those days for an inning or two in the postseason when pulling out all of the stops is necessary. Through two games, it is very clear that Mattingly has no trust in Jose Alvarado and isn’t even sure about Jonathan Bowlan, who was unavailable over the final week of the season.
Nola had a weird final week, as he started on short rest on September 26 and gave up three runs on four hits in just one inning of work against the Rays. That was on the heels of allowing four runs on four hits in six innings to the Brewers on the 23rd. What’s really scary about Nola in a playoff context is that he allowed 37 HR in the regular season with an 18.3% HR/FB%. As I’ve discussed at length and so have others, home runs are the currency of the postseason and Nola has historically served up a lot of them. At least he’s on normal rest here.
Holmes is actually a guy who had reverse platoon splits in Atlanta’s rotation, in that lefties hit just .222/.309/.374 with a .304 wOBA while righties hit .261/.321/.432 with a .329 wOBA. Holmes was also solid in the second half with a 3.22 ERA, but he only had 39 strikeouts out of 266 batters in 64.1 innings of work. Leaning on a guy who had an 82% LOB% with a 14.7% K% over the second half is a really scary proposition in the playoffs. That’s especially true because Holmes, who did have good numbers for the season and only allowed a .234 BABIP to lefties, allowed a 46.5% Hard Hit% and a 9.3% Barrel% to them. Righties also hit a lot of balls hard. He had that 3.22 ERA in the second half, but a 5.77 xERA, so he’s dicey at best.
Walt Weiss has used Raisel Iglesias, Didier Fuentes, and Dylan Lee in both games of the series, so they’d all be working three straight days. Iglesias has only thrown 16 pitches in that span, so he’s fine. The others have thrown 33 and 31, respectively. I do think that we absolutely see Robert Suarez at some point today. In fact, I’m not sure why Weiss hasn’t deployed the guy who had a 1.06 ERA with a 2.48 FIP in 34 innings this season and has a career 2.66 ERA in 244 innings.
After facing two lefties to open the series in Luzardo and Sanchez, the Braves get a collection of righties now. Atlanta posted a .242/.293/.395 slash with a .302 wOBA and an 89 wRC+ against southpaws over the second half of the season. In September, specifically, the Braves slashed .216/.263/.322 with a .260 wOBA and a 61 wRC+ against lefties. That was the lowest wOBA in the league by eight points and lowest wRC+ by nine points.
Conversely, the Braves slashed .243/.306/.422 with a .317 wOBA and a 99 wRC+ with a league-average-ish performance against righties in September. That was a similar slash line to their second-half performance in that split. In that respect, this might be a better setup for them offensively. But, I’m very worried about how things set up on the pitching front.
I don’t have a pregame position here on the side or total. At time of writing, DraftKings didn’t have a 1st 5 moneyline offered. Nola’s penchant for giving up home runs might have me leaning towards Braves 1st 5, but with no price, that’s hard to say. Even with a 3.33 ERA in 78.1 innings in the second half, Nola allowed 17 HR in that span.
Buried amongst all the betting options here for this game is “ATL Braves to Record a Home Run Within 1st 3 Innings” and the Yes is +280. This is under Team and then down below the Total Hits props. Nola gave up 26 HR in 33 games across Innings 1-3. I’d say this one is worth a half-unit shot for those who have DraftKings. I’ve included a screenshots of where to find these. As an alternative way to have something here, Fanduel (under the Innings category) has a 3-way First 3 Innings Result and the Braves are +180. 3-way means that a tie is its own option.
For those who have these available: (DraftKings) Braves to Record a HR Within 1st 3 Innings – Yes (+280); (Fanduel) Braves +180 3-way First 3 Innings Result
