MLB Best Bets Today October 6
The AL steps aside and the NL takes center stage, as we get Game 3s with a change of scenery in Dodgers vs. Braves and Brewers vs. Padres. After a long day of travel, the teams are back at it, as San Diego looks to stave off elimination and LA and Atlanta are both searching for a huge win to take control of the series. That game has Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs. Chris Sale, while the other game has the potential for all kinds of craziness and lots of bullpen arms. Two very different games to say the least.
Throughout the playoffs, I’ll look at every game on the schedule, even if I don’t have any bets. I’ll typically do this on the morning of the games, trying to achieve as much lead time as possible. Bullpen usage is critically important in the postseason, so I’d be doing a major disservice to do anything before the games are finished and that usually means writing up my thoughts in the morning.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for October 6:
Dodgers vs. Braves (-110, 6)
6 p.m. ET
The Dodgers and Braves have flipped back and forth as ever so slight favorites in what is basically a coin-flip affair in Atlanta. The total of 6 definitely illustrates the quality of this pitching matchup, especially because of the caliber of the players in these two lineups. Obviously the Dodgers were among the league’s best and the Braves, while very talented, had a lot of inconsistencies with their hitters.
Sale finished the regular season with a 2.16 ERA, 2.97 xERA, and a 2.29 FIP over his 162.2 innings of work. So far this postseason, he’s pitched 7.2 innings with one start and one relief effort, allowing three runs on five hits with a 12/2 K/BB ratio. Some will probably point to his poor postseason numbers with a 5.83 ERA over 41.2 innings of work, but this is his first time back in the playoffs since 2021, so I’m not really sure any of that matters for what he is now.
LA was fifth in wOBA at .331 against LHP during the regular season, though not all lefties are created equal and not many are Sale. If we start cutting down the sample size, the Dodgers were seventh in wOBA at .329 in the second half against lefties and second with a .366 wOBA in the month of September. But, their 13% BB% is not applicable against a guy like Sale, who throws a lot of strikes.
I’m a bit surprised that the Dodgers didn’t roll with Yamamoto in Game 2, opting instead for Blake Snell. Yamamoto had a 2.53 ERA with a 2.94 xERA and a 3.33 FIP during the regular season over 185 innings. He also would have broken up the run of two straight lefties, but Dave Roberts acknowledged that the Dodgers were thinking about their rotation with the NLCS already, which is pretty presumptuous and was probably some bulletin board material for the Braves.
Yamamoto has already thrown 56 postseason innings with a 2.25 ERA and a 3.45 FIP, as his K% hasn’t been as high, but his BB% has been even better. The Braves were 11th in the league with a .319 wOBA against righties. They were definitely worse against lefties, which perhaps had something to do with Snell being the Game 2 call. The Braves had .316 wOBA against RHP in the second half and had a .317 wOBA against them in September.
Sale has only allowed more than three runs in one start this season, which happened back on April 6. Yamamoto allowed four runs in two of his four September starts. This is a very tight game to say the least. I don’t like a pregame bet in this one. I don’t even have a line on side or total.
Brewers vs. Padres (-138, 7.5)
9:30 p.m. ET
Dustin May and Nick Pivetta are the listed starters here, as this is a much different game than the other one. I’m actually not expecting to see May for very long. I think the right-hander is going to get the team through Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado, and Ty France at least once and maybe try to navigate the bottom of the lineup. My expectation is that we see both Robert Gasser and Shane Drohan. Maybe even Kyle Harrison. There is a lot of data out there about teams hitting relievers better the more that they see them. Those three and Chad Patrick have not pitched yet in this series.
Meanwhile, Trevor Megill, Abner Uribe, and Aaron Ashby have all pitched in both games, while Antonio Senzatela, JoJo Romero, and DL Hall each have one appearance. This will be an all hands on deck approach from Milwaukee and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Padres hitters see a different arm in each plate appearance. May in a short burst sitting 98-99 with movement might fare a bit better than what he usually does.
On the San Diego side, Pivetta really struggled his way through 3.1 innings against the Cubs with four strikeouts and two walks. He only gave up one run on three hits, but it was an arduous appearance. Pivetta only made eight starts during the regular season, with four to start the season and four to finish it. He only allowed 11 runs over 34.2 innings when all was said and done and just three runs in his final four starts.
Joe Musgrove and David Morgan have not pitched in this series yet. Yuki Matsui and Bradgley Rodriguez worked back-to-back days in Games 1 and 2. Mason Miller threw 40 pitches with the loss in Game 2 and Adrian Morejon threw 31 with the loss in Game 1. We could see Walker Buehler here as well as Robbie Ray.
I like the setup better for Milwaukee here with a cavalcade of arms, including several lefties that they can deploy if they wish. I don’t think May will factor into the game as much as the line implies. More specialists for Milwaukee can pitch in the middle innings and guys who can give the Friars a different look. As the underdog price, I think the Brewers are worth a look tonight.
Pick: Brewers +114
