Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, October 6, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: Under the total is a perfect 11-0 (+11.00 units) with starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto on the road facing opponents with a >= 0.570 winning percentage in his career
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAD-ATL (o/u at 6.5)
* Since 2014, teams have bounced back well from a divisional-round game in which their bullpen blew a save, going 35-24 SU (+10.01 units, ROI: 17%).
System Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-138 vs MIL)
* Home field has also proven somewhat advantageous in postseason series that are even, as hosts in this situation have gone 98-88 on run lines (+24.71 units, ROI: 13.3%) since 2015.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+1.5 vs LAD)
Trends and Systems for the MLB Postseason
Notable Postseason Team Trends (since 2015)
* MILWAUKEE: 22-9-1 to the Under +12.1 units
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIL-SD (o/u at 7.5)
Line angles
— Home favorites of -112 to -180 in the MLB playoffs dating back to 2018 have been very vulnerable. They are just 94-88 SU (-30.67 units, ROI: -16.9%)
System Match (FADE): SAN DIEGO (-138 vs MIL)
Coming off wins/losses
— Home teams coming off a loss in a series game have been terrible bounce-back options, going 66-68 SU (-20.15 units, ROI: -15%) since 2016.
System Match (FADE): SAN DIEGO (-138 vs MIL)
Series wins status
— Home field has also proven somewhat advantageous in series that are even, as hosts in this situation have gone 98-88 on RUN LINES (+24.71 units, ROI: 13.3%) since 2015.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+1.5 vs LAD)
— Home field has not meant nearly as much to teams that are trailing in a series and are favored at home, as they are just 42-47 SU (-27.90 units, ROI: -31.3%) since 2013.
System Match (FADE): SAN DIEGO (-138 vs MIL)
Stats from last game trends
— Teams that are favored in an MLB postseason game after having lost the last outing while scoring two runs or fewer are just 54-67 SU (-37.04 units, ROI: -30.6%) and 39-82 on run lines (-33.35 units, ROI: -27.6%) since 2012.
System Match (FADE): NOT YET BUT WATCH FOR LA DODGERS at ATL (-109 CURRENTLY)
— Teams playing as underdogs (or pick-’em) in an MLB postseason series game after their bullpen was used for 5+ innings in the same series prior game are just 44-68 SU (-13.17 units, ROI: -11.8%) since 2016.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-109 at ATL)
Trends based upon regular season records
— In the last six playoff seasons following a full regular season (excluding 2020), MLB teams that won 100 games or more are on a slide of 13-35 on run lines (-25.1 units, ROI: -52.3%) in playoff games.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA DODGERS (-1.5 at ATL), MILWAUKEE (+1.5 at SD)
Totals angles
— The last four MLB postseasons have been very good for Over bettors, as that side of the total has gone 110-103-2, and Overs have produced a return of +22.15 units, an ROI of 10.4%. Total odds are usually heavily shaded towards Unders in recent postseasons.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): LAD-ATL (o/u at 6.5), MIL-SD (o/u at 7.5)
Divisional Round Angles
— Home-field advantage has been particularly prevalent in the divisional series when the host is leading in the series or even. Those hosts are on a surge of 73-52 SU (+4.38 units, ROI: 3.5%) and 64-61 on run lines (+10.35 units, ROI: 8.3%) since 2015.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA
— Since 2014, teams have bounced back well from a divisional round game in which their bullpen blew a save, going 35-24 SU (+10.01 units, ROI: 17%). These follow-up games also tend to go Under on totals, 33-23 (+7.85 units, ROI: 14%).
System Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-138 vs MIL)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIL-SD (o/u at 7.5)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the 2025 season. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. For 2026, these teams got off to a slow start but roared back in the season’s final month, ending the campaign with a record of 318-216 for +8.23 units and an ROI of +1.5% (5-4, -0.86 units in the playoffs).
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-138 vs MIL)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick-’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce-back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%. The 2026 season was slower than usual, 336-405 for -20.73 units, ROI -2.8%. Again, even at -2.8%, it is still a massive edge over the average -8.1% loss (3-3, +0.31 units in the playoffs).
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): LA DODGERS (-109 at ATL), MILWAUKEE (+114 at SD)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last game. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2,334-2,921 (44.4%) for -268.17 units and an ROI of -5.1% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-109 at ATL)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 699-582 (54.6%) record in the next game when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +24.32 units, for an ROI of 1.9%.
System Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-138 vs MIL)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 687-688 for +11.15 units, good for +0.8% ROI.
Ratings Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS -109 (+19 diff)
Consider the situation where, on Under projections so far, when the simulation shows at least a 0.6 run edge, Unders are 128-105 for +9.85 units and an ROI of 4.2%.
Ratings Match (PLAY): MIL-SD UNDER 7.5 (-0.7)
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #5:
In MLB games occurring in August or later between two teams who have >= 0.580 win pct, smaller favorites in the -111 to -175 line range have gone 57-26 SU for +21.53 units (ROI: 25%) in the last five seasons.
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR EITHER ATLANTA or LA DODGERS (PICK-’EM CURRENTLY)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 284-183 in their last 467 tries (+48.02 units, ROI: 10.3%).
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+114 at SD)
Winning Streak Betting System #10:
Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 172-176 (-78.33 units, ROI: -22.5%) in the next game since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (+114 at SD)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(933) LOS ANGELES-NL (101-63) at (934) ATLANTA (97-70)
Trend: Under the total is a perfect 11-0 (+11.00 units) with starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto on the road facing opponents with a >= 0.570 win pct in his career (he also has a 0.55 ERA across three appearances vs ATL in his career)
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAD-ATL (o/u at 6.5)
Trend: LAD is 52-70 (-23.91 units) on the run line in night games this season
Trend Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-1.5 at ATL)
Trend: Chris Sale’s teams are 31-10 (+13.68 units) in his last 41 home night starts
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-110 vs LAD)
(935) MILWAUKEE (105-59) at (936) SAN DIEGO (93-73)
Trend: MIL is 15-6 (+6.34 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+1.5 at SD)
Trend: Nick Pivetta has struggled against MIL the last three seasons (6.75 ERA across 14.2 IP, 18 HA)
Trend Match (FADE): SAN DIEGO (-138 vs MIL)
Trend: SD is 53-30 (+17.76 units) at home this season
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-138 vs MIL)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #2: Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves
Trend: ATLANTA is 9-3 (75%, +8.71 units) in their last 12 games versus LAD
— The ROI on this trend is 72.6%.
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-110 vs LAD)
Series #4: Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego
Trend: Home teams are on a 9-2 (81.8%, +6.38 units) surge in the Padres-Brewers set
— The ROI on this trend is 58%.
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-138 vs MIL)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of noon ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%.
System Match (FADE): SAN DIEGO (-138 vs MIL)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Majority handle bettors have endured three consecutive poor playoff seasons in 2023-2025, with a combined record of 64-64 (50%) for -19.84 units and an ROI of -15.5% (9-8, -1.55 units in 2026).
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA (-110 vs LAD), SAN DIEGO (-138 vs MIL)
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