Sunday Night Baseball: Mets vs. Mariners:
Interleague action is in the primetime spotlight on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball as the Mets battle the Mariners. It is the series finale at T-Mobile Park for two playoff hopefuls, as the Mariners enter play today three games out of a Wild Card spot and the Mets a half-game behind the rival Braves, trailing by one in the loss column.
It will be a Luis vs. Luis matchup, as Severino goes for the NL squad and Castillo goes for the AL team.
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How to Watch Mets vs. Mariners
Where: ESPN
When: Sunday August 11, 7:10 p.m. ET
Mets vs. Mariners MLB Odds
New York Mets +114 // Seattle Mariners -135
Total: 7.5 (-115/-105)
Mets vs. Mariners Game Preview
The first two games in this series have gone the way of the Mariners. In fact, the Mets haven’t scored in this series. Seattle is up 10-0 in the aggregate with a win by six on Friday and a win by four on Saturday. New York scored nine runs on Thursday in Colorado, but none in the ninth, so their scoreless streak is 19 innings heading into this evening.
The Mets have actually been shutout 10 times this season now, but this is the first time they’ve gone scoreless in consecutive games since April 3 and 4 of last season. They were shut out on back-to-back days by the Braves on August 11 and 12, but Game 1 of a doubleheader took place in between blanks.
So, the Mariners will turn to Castillo in hopes of putting up more zeroes. He has a 3.48 ERA with a 3.81 xERA and a 3.57 FIP in 142.1 innings over 24 starts, but that only tells part of the story. He has a 2.95 ERA and has held the opposition to a .271 wOBA with an 85/14 K/BB ratio at home in 79.1 innings. His road numbers over 63 innings are still decent, but nowhere close to his performance in the friendly confines.
Runs may be tough to come by again for the Mets based on those numbers. Castillo has only allowed more than three runs twice, however, he’s also only had two shutout outings at home.
Severino has been a godsend for the Mets in a year where Kodai Senga has only made one start and the rotation has been in a state of flux. His 4.06 ERA doesn’t totally jump off the page and his 4.38 FIP certainly doesn’t, but his 128.2 innings and 22 starts are the most for him since 2018. He has a 3.92 xERA, so he’s gotten a tad unfortunate at times, but he’s kept the ball in the park well and worked around the lowest K% of his career.
Sevy’s last start came in Colorado, where he allowed five runs on eight hits. He allowed six runs to the Twins over just three innings in his previous start, so I guess I have concerns about him hitting a wall given the heightened workload. He hasn’t had a game with a double-digit swinging strike rate since May, so it’s all based on batted ball luck for him.
And I don’t like that in this matchup because the Mariners are a team held back by lots of swings and misses. If they are able to put more balls in play, like any offense, they’ll have more success. The nature of the wins hasn’t taxed the Mariners bullpen all that much and Castillo is as rock solid as anybody at home.
Pick: Mariners -135
Mets vs. Mariners Player Props
Luis Severino Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130)
We’re laying a little bit of a price here, but the Mariners face inflated pitcher strikeout totals in the betting market on a daily basis because of their penchant for generating wind power. They lead the league with a 27.7% K%, though they also have a 9.1% BB% by being in deep counts. Not only could that run up Severino’s pitch count and lead to a five-and-fly type of start, he’s just not a guy that induces a lot of whiffs. He’s gone Under 5.5 in 15 of 22 starts. To their credit, the M’s are down to 25.7% with their K% in the second half. Also, they don’t get this kind of national attention to be on ESPN often and I think they’ll be more locked in as a result.
J.D. Martinez Under 0.5 Hits (+120)
I had success with one of these last week with Brandon Donovan at a plus-money price and like another one here. Not only is Castillo dominant at home, he’s dominant against righties everywhere. Righties have a .198/.247/.309 slash against him with a .246 wOBA. He has a 28.7% K% in that split and righties at T-Mobile Park are batting .170/.210/.245 with a .203 wOBA and a 33.3% K% in 168 plate appearances.
Martinez has a 29.4% K% against righties this season with a .251 BA. However, he’s only batting .238 against RHP over the last 30 days with a 30.7% K%. He does have a 10.7% BB%, so drawing a walk is in play (+235), but he’s only batting .207 here in August overall. Hitting in deep counts forces guys to protect and swing at borderline pitches that they can’t really drive. I think that’s a consideration here with the veteran DH.
