MLB Sunday Night Baseball Preview: Padres vs. Braves odds, predictions and best bets
On Sunday, April 9th, the Atlanta Braves host the San Diego Padres in the second Sunday Night Baseball matchup of the 2023 MLB season. In addition to giving out best bets and player props this year, we’ll also regularly be diving into MLB’s Sunday night game of the week. We know there will be a lot of eyeballs on these matchups, and we want to make sure you know what you’re getting into in these games. So, keep reading to see how we’re playing this one!
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MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on April 9
Padres at Braves betting odds
Braves -115 / Total: 9
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Padres at Braves Side Analysis
The Braves have one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball, as they’re first in the league in OBP, second in OPS, first in ISO and third in wRC to start the year. This Atlanta team might have lost Dansby Swanson in the offseason, but the Braves kept more than enough talent around. This is arguably the best team in baseball, and we expect Sunday night to be a nice showcase for that.
Seth Lugo pitched seven innings of one-run ball in his first start of the season for the Padres, but it’s hard to envision the 33-year-old suddenly becoming a formidable starter. He looked good in his first outing of the year, but we know what Lugo is at this point. And the Braves are going to be very familiar with him from his time with the Mets. With that said, don’t be surprised if Atlanta’s offense looks sharp in this matchup.
Matt Olson is a guy that we’re especially interested in seeing here. Olson is 2 for 2 with a homer and two RBIs in his brief history with Lugo, and the 29-year-old slugger is on fire to start the 2023 season. He and Ronald Acuna Jr. should be able to do enough to help Atlanta bettors pick up a win here.
The Braves are also sending Dylan Dodd to the mound in this game, and the lefty should be able to give San Diego some trouble in this spot. He pitched five innings of one-run ball in his first start of the year, and he did so in a road meeting with a good Cardinals team. The fact he was able to pitch so well despite all the nerves that come with pitching in a difficult environment bodes well heading into his home debut. Dodd is viewed as a top-10 prospect in the Atlanta organization, and he has a chance to really make a name for himself here.
Dodd isn’t going to blow anybody away with his stuff, but he pitches well to contact. And he might miss a few extra bats because the Padres haven’t gotten the chance to face him yet — nor is there a lot of film available on him.
Padres at Braves Total Analysis
It’s hard not to like Atlanta’s chances of hanging a big number on Lugo, who has had some rough outings against the Braves in the past. This Atlanta offense is as explosive as they come, and there’s no reason to believe the bats will come up short here. The Braves are also coming off a game in which they scored only one run, so they are due for a better showing tonight.
Also, the Padres might not completely beat up on Dodd in this one, but the San Diego lineup is also rather potent. So, with Dodd being a guy that gives up a decent amount of contact, the Padres are likely to get a few runs across home plate here.
The over is also 32-14 when Atlanta is trying to get revenge for a loss as a home favorite since the start of the 2021 season, and the average total runs scored in those games is 10.8 runs per game. The over is also 13-3 when the Braves are coming off back-to-back losses to an opponent, which is exactly the case here. And the average total runs scored in those situations is 10.7 runs per game. You just can’t keep this Atlanta offense down for long, so the Braves should do the heavy lifting on the way to an over here.
Padres at Braves Best Bet
With Atlanta’s lineup being very familiar with Lugo, it’s hard not to like the Braves here. They should be able to do a number on the righty, and Dodd is enough of a mystery to pitch five or six solid innings against this Padres team. That should be enough for Atlanta to earn a victory under the Sunday night lights. The Braves are also hoping to avoid losing this series.
Pick: Braves ML (-115)
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