MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Sunday, August 2.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
1:37 PM Eastern
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays
The Cardinals rank third in road scoring with 5.2 runs per game. They face pitcher Max Scherzer, who has a 9.49 ERA and 8.21 fielding independent with 3.4 home runs and 5.1 walks this period per nine innings. Cardinals starting pitcher Michael McGreevy has a 3.57 ERA with 1.2 home runs and 2.3 walks per nine innings allowed. Though he is only getting 5.9 strikeouts per nine innings, he faces a Blue Jays lineup that ranks last in the league in scoring with 3.9 runs per game.
Picks: Cardinals Moneyline +100 and Over 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Cardinals -125 and Total 9.6
1:40 PM Eastern
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland Guardians
Guardians starting pitcher Gavin Williams has been at his best at home, posting a 3.09 ERA at home compared to a 4.34 ERA on the road. Overall, he has been getting 11.3 strikeouts per nine innings. Diamondbacks starting pitcher Merrill Kelly has a 4.86 ERA but a higher 5.65 fielding independent with 1.8 home runs and 3.5 walks per nine innings allowed, with only 5.8 strikeouts per nine innings.
Pick: Guardians Moneyline -138
Greg’s Handicap: Guardians -171
Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays
White Sox starting pitcher Anthony Kay has a 4.25 ERA and 4.76 fielding independent with 7.6 strikeouts and 3.6 walks per nine innings. Rays starting pitcher Griffin Jax owns a 3.74 ERA and 4.03 fielding independent with 1.4 home runs and 3.1 walks per nine innings. He is supported by a bullpen that is 14th in ERA at 3.96 and faces a White Sox lineup that is seventh in scoring with 4.8 runs per game.
Pick: White Sox vs. Rays Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.1
2:10 PM Eastern
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros
Astros starting pitcher Peter Lambert has had a career renaissance this season with a 3.06 ERA and one home run per nine innings allowed. Kumar Rocker has been decent for the Rangers. He has a 4.03 ERA with 1.1 home runs and 3.3 walks per nine innings. For his career, he has a lifetime 3.63 ERA at home with less than one home run per nine innings allowed compared to a lifetime 6.03 road ERA with over 1.6 home runs per nine innings allowed away from home.
Pick: Astros Moneyline -122
Greg’s Handicap: Astros -146
3:10 PM Eastern
Kansas City Royals vs. Colorado Rockies
The Royals are last in the league in scoring away from home with just over 3.6 runs per game. They send Seth Lugo to the mound, who has a 4.22 ERA with 1.1 home runs and 2.9 walks per nine innings. Rockies starting pitcher Kyle Freeland has a 7.34 ERA. He has a 4.94 fielding independent with a 4.92 fielding independent, along with 7.7 strikeouts and 1.9 walks per nine innings.
Pick: Royals vs. Rockies Under 12.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 11.8
4:05 PM Eastern
Detroit Tigers vs. Athletics
Things have been rough recently for Athletics starting pitcher Gage Jump, who has allowed at least four runs in four of his past six starts. He has a 4.00 ERA and 3.72 fielding independent with 9.7 strikeouts and one home run per nine innings allowed. Tigers starting pitcher Keider Montero has a 3.34 ERA with 0.9 home runs and 1.9 walks per nine innings and is supported by a bullpen that ranks seventh in ERA since June 1 at 3.16.
Picks: Tigers Moneyline -106 and Under 11.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Tigers -122 and Total 10.4
4:10 PM Eastern
Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners
Mariners starting pitcher George Kirby had pitched better than his 3.98 ERA would indicate with a 3.64 fielding independent with 1.1 home runs and 1.9 walks per nine innings. He gets to face a Twins lineup that will be without Byron Buxton on Sunday. Twins starting pitcher Taj Bradley has allowed two runs or fewer in seven of his past eight starts and has a 3.65 ERA overall this season with 10.4 strikeouts per nine innings.
Picks: Mariners Moneyline -135 and Under 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Mariners -144 and Total 7.1
7:20 PM Eastern
Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodgers starting pitcher Emmet Sheehan has struggled this season with a 4.95 ERA and 1.7 home runs per nine innings. He has a lower fielding independent at 4.40 with 10.1 strikeouts per nine innings. For his career, he owns a 3.20 ERA with just over one home run per nine innings allowed compared to a 5.52 road ERA with nearly 1.8 home runs per nine innings allowed. Red Sox starting pitcher Jake Bennett has a 2.74 ERA, but is pitching to a lot of contact with only 6.3 strikeouts per nine innings. The Dodgers are third in scoring with nearly 5.2 runs per game.
Pick: Red Sox vs. Dodgers Over 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 9.2
