The baseball season is arduous. For most teams not named the Los Angeles Dodgers, there are peaks and valleys. As a bettor, I am usually looking at teams that are in those valleys, and trying to see if there are any indicators that it can climb out and maintain its status at the peak of the mountaintop.
The Texas Rangers might just be that team.
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Texas scuffled with the Colorado Rockies on Monday night. Wyatt Langford’s opposite field home run in the bottom of the sixth was the first hit of the night for the Rangers, but it put them ahead for good and gave the team its third straight win. Texas – fresh off a weekend series win over Detroit – has now won five of eight and is just two games back in the AL West.
One tiny three-game winning streak in a 162-game regular season does not mean much, but there are plenty of other signs that the Rangers are worth buying low on.
The offense is a concern. Texas is 27th in runs scored on the season, 26th in wOBA and 25th in wRC+. Corey Seager – who just served a minimum stint on the IL – is likely headed back after he aggravated the hamstring on Saturday. Marcus Semien – the team’s leader in at bats – is showing no signs of improvement. But, not all is lost with the team’s offense.
In the seven games since firing offensive coordinator Donnie Ecker the Rangers have shown signs of life. They are 13th in wOBA and have hit 11 home runs over that span. The team’s walk-rate of 8.3% is perhaps the most exciting improvement over this small stretch, as Texas ranks 29th for the season in that category (7.0%). It’s not guaranteed that the improvements we have seen last, but it is a good sign that the team’s offensive production improved once it made a change at a key position.
Certain hitters also have reason for optimism.
Adolis GarcÃa is following up a somewhat disappointing 2024 season with another below average hitting campaign. However, there are some good signs in his profile. GarcÃa ranks in the 84th percentile of hitters in barrel rate (14.4%) and the 75th percentile in hard-hit rate (47.7%). His xBA (.246) shows he should be hitting slightly better, and one would expect he will not continue to hit just .255 on balls in play.
When – hopefully not if – Seager gets healthy his bat will be a massive addition. The Rangers’ shortstop is having an excellent hitting season. Seager is in the 97th percentile in xwOBA (.425), the 98th percentile in xBA (.328) and the 99th percentile in xSLG (.640). His barrel rate (15.9%) and hard-hit rate (50.0%) rank in the 90th and 83rd percentiles respectively.
Even hitters like Jake Burger – who was just recalled from Triple-A – have deserved a better fate at the plate. Burger’s contact numbers are very good – 73rd percentile in barrel rate and 83rd percentile in hard-hit rate – and he could show some improvements now that he is back with the major league club.
The offense isn’t the selling point here though. It is the pitching staff.
The market does not seem to believe in the resurgent season for Tyler Mahle, but even his underlying metrics (3.11 FIP) tell us he is an above-average starting pitcher. He ranks in the 79th percentile in barrel rate (5.1%) and hard-hit rate (31.6%) allowed. Hitters cannot get ahold of his stuff this season. Mahle will never be a dominant swing-and-miss guy, but if he can continue to force hitters to generate soft contact he will be a staple at the back of this rotation.
Nathan Eovaldi also shows no signs of falling off a cliff (2.14 FIP). Unlike Mahle, Eovaldi’s strikeout profile jumps off the page. His chase rate (32.3%), strikeout rate (28.6%) and whiff rate (29.1%) are all elite, and he pairs that with a miniscule 2.4% walk rate.
Health concerns will always hang over Jacob deGrom, but he continues to put forth a strong season. Over the weekend he completely dominated the Tigers’ lineup. In five innings deGrom allowed two earned runs – both solo home runs – while striking out 10 in a win. The former Cy Young winner has not allowed more than two earned runs in his last five starts. Over that span he has a 1.91 ERA with a 2.58 FIP.
The bullpen has been very solid for Texas as well. The team ranks 16th in reliever ERA (3.88), but 11th in reliever FIP (3.68). Closer is a question for the Rangers. Luke Jackson – who did take a comeback off the hand on Monday night – leads the team in saves (8) and has only blown one save opportunity, but his 5.54 ERA/4.88 FIP split leaves a lot to be desired.
Texas is not a perfect team by any stretch, but that is the concept behind buying low on teams at this time of the year. The Rangers have the signs of a team which can climb out of what is a shallow hole in its division. They are only two games behind the Mariners, a team which has lost four straight and six out of eight.
Bettors should shop around for the best price on Texas to win the AL West. DraftKings and FanDuel are much shorter on the Rangers in the division, but BetMGM is offering +325 for the AL West. That is a price with immense value for this team in a division which is flawed and rife with parity.
Texas isn’t a perfect team, but it has plenty of potential. Those are the types of teams I want to invest in at this point of a long baseball season.
