The Dodgers may seem inevitable to a lot of interested parties when it comes to the World Series against the Blue Jays. Even if there isn’t anything that jumps off the page about the series price because you don’t want to lay -215 on the Dodgers or take a gamble on the Blue Jays at +180, World Series player props are still a good way to have some action on the series.
Betting on a game-by-game basis on sides and totals presents more opportunity as well, but there are some tendencies, stats, splits, and other factors that can help with betting on player props instead. I touched on some of this in my Dodgers vs. Blue Jays World Series preview and also my look at the World Series MVP award. But, there are some things worth keeping in mind in hopes of cashing props.
I’ll break down five guys on a player-by-player level for some stuff to maybe take advantage of as the series goes along.
Trey Yesavage
The Game 1 starter for the Blue Jays has had an unreal season, beginning at A-ball and ending with pitching in the World Series. In six career starts, Yesavage has worked at least two batters in five of them and at least three batters in three of them. His Walks Allowed prop in his second start against Seattle was 2.5, a number he went over in his first start. He walked three in that effort. It was 2.5 with a heavy plus-money price on the Over for Game 1 at time of writing.
The rookie had a 10.5% BB% in the minor leagues over his four stops, including a 15.3% BB% in 17.1 innings at Triple-A before getting called up. Now, in the biggest start of his career, against an exhausting and daunting lineup, it might be an angle to look at in this start and going forward. In 232 PA against lefties across all five levels, he has a 12.1% BB% in that split. Max Muncy had an 18.5% BB% and Shohei Ohtani had an 18% BB% in lefty vs. righty splits. Freddie Freeman had a 10.2% BB%.
Blake Snell
Snell has been quite an interesting pitcher throughout his career. Over 4,791 batters faced in the regular season, exactly 41% of plate appearances against him have ended with a strikeout or walk. That’s usually why he hasn’t been able to work deep into games. This season was even 38.5% in his 61.1 innings pitched. In the postseason, he has a 38.9% K% with a 6.9% BB%.
But, the Blue Jays had the lowest K% in baseball at 17.8%. Against lefties, they had the second-lowest (Padres) at 18.6%. They did walk 9.1% of the time against southpaws, but still. Over 72% of their plate appearances against lefties ended with some sort of ball hit somewhere. Something very noteworthy about Snell this season is that his average launch angle against was just 5.6 degrees, as he posted the second-highest GB% of his career at 48.7%. In the playoffs, it’s actually 69.2% and he has only allowed six hits with a .154 BABIP.
Right now, Snell is on track to make one start at Rogers Centre and one start at home. Normally he’s known for carrying very low batting averages against. But, with this new ground ball increase, more grounders go for hits than fly balls, as fielders have more time to react. Snell’s .224 BA was the highest he’s had since the COVID year of 2020. Given that the Blue Jays are very aggressive and don’t get into a ton of deep counts, that’s something to watch. His Game 1 Hits Allowed prop as 4.5 with plus money on the Over at time of writing.
Freddie Freeman
I wrote about Freeman in my World Series MVP article and he could be in line for a good series here. Usually left-handed batters are stymied by splitters from right-handed pitchers. Typical swing planes for lefties include a little bit of an uppercut. Splitters are designed to run off the barrel and go down and away against them. So, it can be a very difficult pitch to hit.
However, Freeman was one of the best at hitting splitters this season. It’s not a huge sample size because not a lot of guys throw them, but Freeman has always had terrific plate coverage and has been an above average hitter against changeups every season but one since 2011. He actually has a higher Pull% this season than any other season of his career, but he is a guy very happy to use center field and go oppo. I think he matches up well with Yesavage and Kevin Gausman in this series.
George Springer
The Blue Jays were the best offense in baseball in R vs. R plate appearances with a .345 wOBA and a 122 wRC+. The best hitter in that split was far and away Springer, who batted .327/.412/.588 with a 178 wRC+ against righties. After Snell in Game 1, Springer will see Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, and Ohtani, all righties. Plus, the only relievers to really get a lot of run in the postseason have been righties Blake Treinen and Roki Sasaki..
The only hitter with at least 30 R vs. R plate appearances with a higher wOBA in that split was Aaron Judge. Springer’s 24 homers ranked tied for 10th in that split. It’s fair to wonder how healthy he is, but he’s been excellent against same-side pitching and should see a lot of it.
As a side note, he was tied with Andy Pages of the Dodgers, who should get four right-handed starters for Toronto in this series.
Shane Bieber
For those looking to bet 1st 5s or make 1st Inning wagers, Bieber faced 63 batters the first time through the order during the regular season, where he allowed five of the eight homers he gave up and pitched to a .267/.302/.533 slash and a .355 wOBA.
In three postseason starts, Bieber has allowed a first inning run in all three of them. It was an unearned run in the first against the Yankees thanks to an Isiah Kiner-Falefa error that extended the inning. He gave up a two-run homer to Julio Rodriguez in the first inning of Game 3. He gave up a leadoff double and a one-out single in Game 7.
It wasn’t an easy year for Bieber coming back from Tommy John and I’m not surprised that it sometimes took him a little time to get a feel for his pitches and get into rhythm. Something to keep in mind for his one (or two) start(s) in the series.
