The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, June 1, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 293-324 but for +80.19 units and a ROI of 13% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS (+136 at TEX), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+142 at BAL), ATHLETICS (+170 at TOR), TAMPA BAY (+150 at HOU), CINCINNATI (+136 at CHC), PITTSBURGH (+130 at SD), NY YANKEES (+145 at LAD)

Trend: CHC is 16-5 (+8.35 units) as a favorite in the -145 to -165 range by starter Jameson Taillon in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-162 vs. CIN)

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 300-258 (53.8%) for +33.15 units and a ROI of 5.9% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-175 vs. MIL), HOUSTON (-180 vs. TB)

Trend: HOME TEAMS are 20-8 (71.4%, +10.91 units) in the last 28 games between Cleveland and LA Angels
– The ROI on this trend is 39%
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-205 vs. LAA)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating and starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 77-47 for +18.11 units, and an ROI of 14.6%! To ensure this isn’t a fluke run, I went back and tabulated the results from the 2024 full regular teams, and teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This seems to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. Last week was the first time since I introduced this angle that it was negative, -1.88 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS (-162 vs. STL), ARIZONA (-250 vs. WSH)

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For 2025, these teams remain off to an uncustomary good start, 48-19 for +6.19 units. This remains a winning year for this angle, but it is still just a handful of heavily priced favorite losses from going negative.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO (-205 vs. ATH), CLEVELAND (-205 vs. LAA), ARIZONA (-250 vs. WSH)

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For 2025, these teams are off to a very strong start, 70-22 for +13.33 units, a ROI of 14.5%.
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (-410 vs. COL)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we will be looking for a bounce back in ’25. We are riding a 4-week winning streak, including 17-10 for +9.51 units last week. For the season, the record is now 138-158 for +0.86 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (+100 vs. BOS), MILWAUKEE (+145 at PHI), DETROIT (+140 at KC), MINNESOTA (+120 at SEA), NY YANKEES (+145 at LAD)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging deeper into the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the full 2024 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For ’25, these teams struggled out of the gate, but are now 122-136 for -4.38 units after four straight winning weeks.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (+100 vs. BOS), DETROIT (+140 at KC), MINNESOTA (+120 at SEA)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, a ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 70-77 for -5.55 units (ROI -3.8%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. The ROI on that system was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so this year’s results (41-34, +9.17 units) are somewhat surprising.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – LA DODGERS (-175 vs NYY)
3+ games – WASHINGTON (+205 at AZ)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025. So far, it is 86-64 for -0.92 units, having recovered from a slow start.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (+145 at PHI), TORONTO (-205 vs. ATH)

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 231-159 for +40.34 units over the last two regular seasons, maintaining remarkable consistency as well. The ROI during that span has been 10.3%! For 2025, it is off to a decent start, 50-36 for +5.76 units, an ROI of 6.7%.
System Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (-250 vs WSH)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

Below is a summary of the 2024 season findings, with the 2023 results also noted. As you can see, bettors were somewhat improved over the 2023 season in all of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 full-season results, along with some notes about the early ’25 returns:

  • 2024 Majority handle on sides: 1366-1064 (56.2%), -129.73 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
  • 2024 Majority number of bets on sides: 1399-1044 (57.3%), -129.28 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
  • 2024 Majority handle on run lines: 1181-1260 (48.4%). -108.79 units, ROI -4.5% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
  • 2024 Majority number of bets on run lines: 1165-1280 (47.6%). -97.78 units – ROI -4.0% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
  • Majority handle on totals: 1200-1139 (51.3%). -52.9 units – ROI -2.3% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
  • Majority number of bets on totals: 1186-1121 (51.4%), -47.1 units, ROI -2.0% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)

If you’re wondering why all of the results don’t add up to the same amount of games, it’s because 50/50 handle or bets splits are counted as null, plus there were several pushes on totals throughout the season.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -7% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 200-83 (70.7%) for +35.78 units and an ROI of +12.6%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 20%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS, SAN DIEGO

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the ‘23 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 431-381 (53.1%) for -4.6 units and a ROI of -0.6%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of about 6.5% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 812 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): BOSTON, DETROIT

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last two seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 194-62 (75.8%) for +13.5 units and an ROI of 5.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider that when backing.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS, ARIZONA

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 716-658 (52.1%) but for -140.34 units and an ROI of -10.2%. This is over three full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TEXAS, BOSTON, NY YANKEES

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 226-228 (48.3%) for -105.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -23.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TEXAS, ARIZONA

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.

MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 337-344 but for +51.52 units and an ROI of 7.6% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-175 vs. MIL), ATHLETICS (+170 at TOR), COLORADO (+320 at NYM), ARIZONA (-250 vs. WSH)

MLB Series Betting System #4: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a reasonably good investment in the final game of a series, going 562-738 but for +28.55 units and a ROI of 2.1% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS (+136 at TEX), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+142 at BAL), MILWAUKEE (+145 at PHI), ATHLETICS (+170 at TOR), LA ANGELS (+170 at CLE), DETROIT (+140 at KC), TAMPA BAY (+150 at HOU), CINCINNATI (+136 at CHC), MINNESOTA (+120 at SEA), PITTSBURGH (+130 at SD), NY YANKEES (+145 at LAD)

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 293-324 but for +80.19 units and a ROI of 13% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS (+136 at TEX), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+142 at BAL), ATHLETICS (+170 at TOR), TAMPA BAY (+150 at HOU), CINCINNATI (+136 at CHC), PITTSBURGH (+130 at SD), NY YANKEES (+145 at LAD)

MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored four or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 529-594 record, but for +53.78 units and an ROI of 4.8% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (+136 at CHC), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+142 at BAL), BOSTON (-125 at ATL), COLORADO (+320 at NYM), SAN FRANCISCO (-122 at MIA), DETROIT (+140 at KC), MINNESOTA (+120 at SEA), NY YANKEES (+145 at LAD)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 6+ seasons, going 390-369 (51.3%) for +29.57 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 3.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-175 vs. MIL), HOUSTON (-180 vs. TB)

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1782-1697 (51.2%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -249.74 units. This represents an ROI of -7.2%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE (+145 at PHI), TAMPA BAY (+150 at HOU), LA DODGERS (-175 vs. NYY), WASHINGTON (+205 at AZ)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1753-2242 (43.9%) for -203.08 units and a nROI of -5.1% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI, CHICAGO WHITE SOX, ST LOUIS, BOSTON, COLORADO, SAN FRANCISCO, DETROIT, NY YANKEES

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3615-3178 (53.2%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -503.21 units and an ROI of -7.4%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO, PHILADELPHIA, CLEVELAND, ATLANTA, NY METS, SEATTLE, LA DODGERS, ARIZONA

Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 1025-885 (53.7%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +15.87 units for backers and an ROI of 0.8%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS (-162 vs. STL), KANSAS CITY (-166 vs. DET), MIAMI (+102 vs. SF), SAN DIEGO (-155 vs. PIT)

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 531-449 (54.2%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +19.78 units, for an ROI of 2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS (-162 vs. STL), MIAMI (+102 vs. SF), SAN DIEGO (-155 vs PIT)

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 323-162 (66.6%) for +42.68 units and a ROI of 8.8%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-205 vs. ATH), LA DODGERS (-175 vs. NYY)

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 300-258 (53.8%) for +33.15 units and an ROI of 5.9% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-175 vs. MIL), HOUSTON (-180 vs. TB)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more are on a 32-92 skid (-39.66 units, ROI -32%) in the next game when playing as road underdogs
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+320 at NYM)

Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 62-129 skid (-34.94 units, ROI: -18.3%).
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+320 at NYM)

Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 18-18 (+13.01 units, ROI: 36.1%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 75-158 (-61.05 units, ROI: -26.2%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+320 at NYM)

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 216-213 run (+35.17 units, ROI: 8.2%).
System Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+320 at NYM)

Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 201-139 in their last 340 tries (+19.40 units, ROI: 5.7%).
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+145 at PHI)

Winning Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 26-58 (-10.25 units, ROI: -12.2%) in their last 84 tries.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE (+145 at PHI), WASHINGTON (+205 at AZ)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: COLORADO +320 (+100 diff), WASHINGTON +205 (+50), LA ANGELS +170 (+29), DETROIT +140 (+25), ATLANTA +100 (+21), NY YANKEES +145 (+20), MINNESOTA +120 (+16)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SAN FRANCISCO -120 (+27 diff), BALTIMORE -170 (+21)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LAA-CLE OVER 8 (+0.7), MIL-PHI OVER 8 (+0.5)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: COL-NYM UNDER 8.5 (-0.9), CWS-BAL UNDER 9 (-0.5), ATH-TOR UNDER 8.5 (-0.5), DET-KC UNDER 8.5 (-0.5), PIT-SD UNDER 8.5 (-0.5)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.

(901) MILWAUKEE (31-28) at (902) PHILADELPHIA (36-22)
Trend: PHI is 6-10 (-12.38 units) as a favorite within -170 to -198 line range with starter Ranger Suarez in the last four seasons
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-175 vs.MIL)

(903) COLORADO (9-49) at (904) NEW YORK-NL (36-22)

Trend: NYM is 23-7 (+10.26 units) in home games this season

Trend Match (PLAY): NY METS (-410 vs. COL)

(905) SAN FRANCISCO (32-26) at (906) MIAMI (23-33)
Trend: SF is 5-12 (-11.57 units) vs. LH starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (-122 at MIA)

(907) CINCINNATI (29-30) at (908) CHICAGO-NL (36-22)
Trend: CHC is 16-5 (+8.35 units) as a favorite in the -145 to -165 range by starter Jameson Taillon in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-162 vs. CIN)

(909) WASHINGTON (28-30) at (910) ARIZONA (27-31)
Trend: WSH is 30-14 (+13.32 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+1.5 at AZ)

(911) PITTSBURGH (22-37) at (912) SAN DIEGO (32-24)
Trend: Andrew Heaney is 21-37 (-18.39 units) vs teams with a >53% win pct in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (+130 at SD)

(913) CHICAGO-AL (18-40) at (914) BALTIMORE (21-36)
Trend: Adrian Houser is 13-4 (+9.83 units) in the last 17 day game starts
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+142 at BAL)

(915) ATHLETICS (23-36) at (916) TORONTO (30-28)
Trend: ATH is 12-23 (-7.40 units) in day  game starts by JP Sears in the last three years
Trend Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (+170 at TOR)

(919) DETROIT (38-21) at (920) KANSAS CITY (31-28)
Trend: Under the total is 17-7-4 (+9.30 units) in Tigers day games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-KC (o/u at 8.5)

(925) ST LOUIS (33-25) at (926) TEXAS (28-31)
Trend: Under the total is 25-7 (+17.30 units) in Rangers home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): STL-TEX (o/u at 7.5)

Series #16: LA Angels at Cleveland, Fri 5/30-Sun 6/1
Trend: Home teams are 20-8 (71.4%, +10.91 units) in the last 28 games between Cleveland and LA Angels
– The ROI on this trend is 39%
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-205 vs. LAA)

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Friday, June 6)

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