The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, May 13, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

Trend: Favorites are 19-1 (95%, +17.52 units) in the last 20 games between Pittsburgh and the New York Mets
– The ROI on this trend is 87.6%
Trend Match (PLAY): NY METS (-245 vs. PIT)

Trend: Jose Berrios is 10-24 (-21.14 units) in night games as a short favorite within line range of -120 to -145 in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): TORONTO (-135 vs. TB)

* Not surprisingly, when teams get to the level of having won nine or more games in a row, the lowest-priced teams riding winning streaks offer the most value. In fact, teams on winning streaks of 9+ games and favored by -145 or less (or underdog) have gone 30-15 (+16.26 units, ROI: 36.1%) in trying to stretch the streak another game.
System Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (+124 at PHI)

MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 326-263 record for +62.21 units and an ROI of 10.6% over the last three seasons, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+110 at BAL)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

The quickest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage 19% or higher and a starting pitcher edge of at least 20 have gone 296-243 for +13.54 units and an ROI of 2.5% so far in the 2025 season. This is a solid early return for what has been a long-running strategy I have embraced, especially when you consider that the average bettor playing every MLB game this season theoretically would be down about -30.50 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA, DETROIT, ST LOUIS, NY METS, HOUSTON, NY YANKEES, SAN DIEGO, SAN FRANCISCO

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating and starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season, I have found that teams with an even or worse record but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 63-31 for +24.19 units, and an ROI of 25.7%. To ensure this isn’t a fluke run, I went back and tabulated the results from the 2024 full regular season, and teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This seems to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices typically aren’t that high.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS (+124 at PHI), HOUSTON (-142 vs. KC)

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%. For 2025, these teams remain off to an uncustomary good start, 32-7 for +15.5 units. This remains a crazy winning year for this angle, I don’t expect it to keep up for long.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (-205 vs. CWS), ATLANTA (-230 vs. WSH), LA DODGERS (-238 vs. ATH)

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 midseason bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For 2025, these teams are off to a very strong start, 43-13 for +10.77 units, an ROI of 19.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (-245 vs. PIT), CHICAGO CUBS (-258 vs. MIA), TEXAS (-238 vs. COL), SAN DIEGO (-218 vs. LAA)

Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen-rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in 2025, these teams are unusually positive, 38-11 for +11.75 units. However, this system remains just a few games away from going negative.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (-205 vs. CWS), CHICAGO CUBS (-258 vs. MIA), TEXAS (-238 vs. COL)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and before that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick-’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we will be looking for a bounce back in 2025, but the start has been slow, 100-127 for -11.63 units. However, we are off back-to-back winning weeks so we will keep this system on the daily reports for now.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (+110 at BAL), DETROIT (-105 vs. BOS), ST LOUIS (+124 at PHI), SAN FRANCISCO (-105 vs. AZ)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick-’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the full 2024 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For 2025, these teams have struggled out of the gate, as they are 87-111 for -16.72 units. This is still a disappointment but off back-to-back winning weeks.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (+110 at BAL), DETROIT (-105 vs. BOS), ST LOUIS (+124 at PHI), SAN FRANCISCO (-105 vs. AZ)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In studying 2023 teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025 and so far it is 59-43 for +2.3 units after a huge +8.75 unit week. It seems to have recovered from a slow start.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (+110 at BAL), ST LOUIS (+124 at PHI), TEXAS (-238 vs. COL)

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on three-plus game losing streaks have gone 231-159 for +40.34 units over the last two regular seasons, maintaining remarkable consistency as well. The ROI during that span has been 10.3%. For 2025, it is off to a fabulous start, 37-21 for +12.39 units, an ROI of 21.4%.
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-105 vs. AZ)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettor, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that was developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of noon ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

Below is a summary of the 2024 season findings, with the 2023 results also noted. As you can see, bettors were somewhat improved over the 2023 season in all of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 full-season results, along with some notes about the early 2025 returns: 

–  2024 Majority handle on sides: 1366-1064 (56.2%), -129.73 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
– 2024 Majority number of bets on sides: 1399-1044 (57.3%), -129.28 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
–  2024 Majority handle on run lines: 1181-1260 (48.4%). -108.79 units, ROI -4.5% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
–  2024 Majority number of bets on run lines: 1165-1280 (47.6%). -97.78 units – ROI -4.0% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
–  Majority handle on totals: 1200-1139 (51.3%). -52.9 units – ROI -2.3% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 1186-1121 (51.4%), -47.1 units, ROI -2.0% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)

If you’re wondering why all of the results don’t add up to the same amount of games, it’s because 50/50 handle or bets splits are counted as null, plus there were several pushes on totals throughout the season.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -7% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle. 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 200-83 (70.7%) for +35.78 units and an ROI of +12.6%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 20%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI, NY METS, CHICAGO CUBS, TEXAS, SAN DIEGO

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 431-381 (53.1%) for -4.6 units and an ROI of -0.6%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of about 6.5% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 812 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): MINNESOTA, HOUSTON, SAN FRANCISCO

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last two seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 194-62 (75.8%) for +13.5 units and an ROI of 5.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider that when backing.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 716-658 (52.1%) but for -140.34 units and an ROI of -10.2%. This is over three full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, CINCINNATI, TEXAS, SAN DIEGO

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the 2023 season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to -12.5%, followed by an August return of -3.5% in consecutive seasons, and finally a September/October drain of -13.3%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will continue to be tracked for 2025:
— Majority handle bettors in May games of 2023-24 were just 431-379 (53.2%) for -101.23 units and an ROI of -12.5%
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series. 

MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 351-269 for +48.88 units and an ROI of 7.9% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (+110 at BAL), TORONTO (-135 vs. TB)

MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 282-242 but for -60.66 units and an ROI of -11.6% over the last three seasons
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (-130 vs. MIN), TORONTO (-135 vs. TB)

MLB Series Betting System #8: Home favorites opening up an interleague series have gone 127-57 but for +13.38 units and an ROI of 7.3% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA DODGERS (-230 vs. ATH), CINCINNATI (-205 vs. CWS)

MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 326-263 record for +62.21 units and an ROI of 10.6% over the last three seasons, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+110 at BAL)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

“9” is a magic number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous game, they are posting a winning record at 1753-1669 (51.2%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -245.46 units. This represents an ROI of -7.2%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO, DETROIT, LA ANGELS, NY YANKEES

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
Consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last game. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over the last four-plus seasons. These road teams are just 1709-2189 (43.8%) for -200.27 units and an ROI of -5.1% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY, ATHLETICS, MILWAUKEE, BOSTON, MIAMI, COLORADO, ARIZONA

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3556-3126 (53.2%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -487.74 units and an ROI of -7.3%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, TORONTO, LA DODGERS, CLEVELAND, DETROIT, CHICAGO CUBS, HOUSTON, SAN DIEGO, SEATTLE

Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 1015-873 (53.8%) record in the follow-up game since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +23.46 units for backers and an ROI of 1.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS (-238 vs. COL), CINCINNATI (-205 vs. CWS)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in Game 5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 206-203 run (+32.79 units, ROI: 8%).
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-105 vs. AZ)

Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 168-188 (+5.12 units, ROI: 1.4%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): SEATTLE (+120 vs. NYY)

Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t typically score a lot of runs. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 143-112 (+13.10 units, ROI: 5.1%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+110 at BAL)

Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 194-135 in their last 329 tries (+17.08 units, ROI: 5.2%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (+110 at BAL), ST LOUIS (+124 at PHI)

Winning Streak Betting System #7:
Not surprisingly, when teams get to the level of having won nine or more games in a row, the lowest-priced teams riding winning streaks offer the most value. In fact, teams on winning streaks on nine-plus games and favored by -145 or less (or underdog) have gone 30-15 (+16.26 units, ROI: 36.1%) in trying to stretch the streak another game.
System Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (+124 at PHI)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIAMI +210 (+40 diff), ATHLETICS +195 (+31), PITTSBURGH +200 (+25), MINNESOTA +110 (+21), COLORADO +195 (+20), DETROIT -105 (+17), SAN FRANCISCO -105 (+15)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NYY-SEA OVER 7 (+1.1), AZ-SF OVER 7.5 (+0.7)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CWS-CIN UNDER 9 (-0.9), ATH-LAD UNDER 9.5 (-0.6), MIL-CLE UNDER 9 (-0.5), MIN-BAL UNDER 9 (-0.5)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots. 

(951) ST LOUIS (23-19) at (952) PHILADELPHIA (24-17)
Trend: Jesus Luzardo is 12-4 (+3.30 units) in his last 16 at home as a -150 or higher favorite
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (*if they fall into this line range, -148 currently*)

(953) PITTSBURGH (14-28) at (954) NEW YORK-NL (27-15)
Trend: PIT is 5-15 (-9.45 units) in road games this season
Trend: PIT is 8-20 (-8.45 units) vs. teams with a >58% win pct with starter Mitch Keller in the last six seasons
Trends Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (+200 at NYM)

(957) MIAMI (15-25) at (958) CHICAGO-NL (24-18)
Trend: Over the total is 12-6 (+5.35 units) in Miami road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-CHC (o/u at 8)

(959) ARIZONA (22-20) at (960) SAN FRANCISCO (24-18)
Trend: Over the total is 11-3 (+7.68 units) in games when SF is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): AZ-SF (o/u at 7.5)

(961) MINNESOTA (21-20) at (962) BALTIMORE (15-24)
Trend: Under the total is 14-6-2 (+7.40 units) in Baltimore night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIN-BAL (o/u at 9)

(963) BOSTON (22-21) at (964) DETROIT (27-15)
Trend: DET is 15-5 (+8.61 units) in home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-105 vs. BOS)

(965) TAMPA BAY (18-22) at (966) TORONTO (20-20)
Trend: Jose Berrios is 10-24 (-21.14 units) in night games as a short favorite within the line range of -120 to -145 in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): TORONTO (-135 vs. TB)

(969) NEW YORK-AL (24-17) at (970) SEATTLE (22-18)
Trend: Max Fried is 22-8 (+11.45 units) in road game starts in the last two-plus seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-142 at SEA)

(971) MILWAUKEE (20-22) at (972) CLEVELAND (24-17)
Trend: CLE is 17-7 (+10.40 units) in the -120 to +125 line range with starter Logan Allen in the last two-plus seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (*if they fall into this line range, -125 currently*)

(973) CHICAGO-AL (12-29) at (974) CINCINNATI (20-22)
Trend: CWS is 3-17 (-10.85 units) in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+170 at CIN)

(975) COLORADO (7-34) at (976) TEXAS (21-21)
Trend: COL is 8-21 (-7.36 units) on the road in the last two-plus seasons with starter Kyle Freeland
Trend Match (FADE): COLORADO (+195 at TEX)
Trend: UNDER the total is 17-4 (+12.60 units) in Texas home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): COL-TEX (o/u at 8.5)

(979) ATHLETICS (21-20) at (980) LOS ANGELES-NL (27-14)
Trend: LAD is 15-3 (+8.47 units) in home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-238 vs. ATH)

Series #10: Boston at Detroit, Mon 5/12-Wed 5/14
Trend: Detroit is 6-13 (31.6%, -5.99 units) in the last 19 games vs. Boston
— The ROI on this trend is -31.5%
Trend Match (FADE): DETROIT (-105 vs. BOS)

Series #12: Pittsburgh at NY Mets, Mon 5/12-Wed 5/14
Trend: FAVORITES are 19-1 (95%, +17.52 units) in the last 20 games between Pittsburgh and NY Mets
— The ROI on this trend is 87.6%
Trend Match (PLAY): NY METS (-245 vs. PIT)

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities. 

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next couple Friday, May 16)

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