Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, June 30, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: Zach Wheeler is 6-0 (+6.00 units) vs San Diego in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-225 vs. SD)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 303-272 but for -83.05 units and an ROI of -14.4% over the last three seasons
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY (-176 vs. ATH), SEATTLE (-164 vs. KC)
Trend: Favorites are just 24-35 (40.7%, -25.39 units) in the last 59 games between Toronto and NY Yankees
– The ROI on this trend is -43%
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-145 at TOR)
Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings have gone 916-1034, but for +59.43 units (a ROI of 3%) since the start of the 2023 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (+181 at PHI), ST LOUIS (-108 at PIT), TEXAS (-107 vs. BAL), KANSAS CITY (+134 at SEA)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 109-69 for +27.46 units, and an ROI of 15.4%! To ensure this isn’t a fluke run, I went back and tabulated the results from the 2024 full regular teams, and teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This seems to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-172 vs. CIN)
** NEW STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS **
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game have gone 31-36 for -14.44 units when not matched up against similar. This represents an ROI of -21.6% and it is proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in games.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-225 vs. SD)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 86-108 for -24.57 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -12.7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN DIEGO (+181 at PHI), TEXAS (-107 vs. BAL)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 189-101 for +38.4 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +13.2%. This is obviously the ultimate scenario. This angle has gone 42-19 for +10.64 units since I introduced it three weeks ago.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-145 at TOR), BOSTON (-172 vs. CIN), TAMPA BAY (-176 vs. ATH), SEATTLE (-164 vs. KC), SAN FRANCISCO (-136 at AZ)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we will be looking for a bounce back in 2025. For the season, the record is now 215-244 for +13.16 units, ROI +2.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (+181 at PHI), ST LOUIS (-108 at PIT), TEXAS (-107 vs. BAL), KANSAS CITY (+134 at SEA)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, a ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 110-113 for +0.89 units (ROI 0.4%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. The ROI on that system was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle so this year’s results started slow but are getting back to normal (57-58, -2.39 units).
System Match (FADE): 3-games – PITTSBURGH (-113 vs. STL)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025. So far, it is 119-92 for +0.23 units, even after having recovered from a very slow start.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): ST LOUIS (-108 at PIT)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that was developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
Below is a summary of the 2024 season findings, with the 2023 results also noted. As you can see, bettors were somewhat improved over the 2023 season in all of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 full-season results, along with some notes about the early 2025 returns:
– 2024 Majority handle on sides: 1366-1064 (56.2%), -129.73 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
– 2024 Majority number of bets on sides: 1399-1044 (57.3%), -129.28 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
– 2024 Majority handle on run lines: 1181-1260 (48.4%). -108.79 units, ROI -4.5% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– 2024 Majority number of bets on run lines: 1165-1280 (47.6%). -97.78 units – ROI -4.0% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– Majority handle on totals: 1200-1139 (51.3%). -52.9 units – ROI -2.3% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 1186-1121 (51.4%), -47.1 units, ROI -2.0% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)
If you’re wondering why all of the results don’t add up to the same amount of games, it’s because 50/50 handle or bets splits are counted as null, plus there were several pushes on totals throughout the season.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -7% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the ‘23 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 431-381 (53.1%) for -4.6 units and an ROI of -0.6%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of about 6.5% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep a bettor afloat, considering this angle has included 812 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): BALTIMORE, SAN FRANCISCO
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 716-658 (52.1%) but for -140.34 units and an ROI of -10.2%. This is over three full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Match (FADE): CINCINNATI
DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 190-169 (73.4%) since the start of the ‘23 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +7.3%!
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SD-PHI
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 188-136 for +21.69 units and a ROI of 6.7% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-114 at TEX)
MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 113-150 for -34.97 units and a ROI of -13.3% over the last three seasons
System Matches (FADE ALL): TEXAS (-107 vs. BAL), ARIZONA (+108 vs. SF)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 303-272 but for -83.05 units and a ROI of -14.4% over the last three seasons
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY (-176 vs. ATH), SEATTLE (-164 vs. KC)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored 6 or more runs in a win boast a solid 347-284 record for +61.54 units and a ROI of 9.8% over the last three seasons, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS (-108 at PIT), NY YANKEES (-145 at TOR)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1831-1742 (51.2%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -251.70 units. This represents an ROI of -7%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (-113 vs. STL), NY YANKEES (-145 at TOR)
Road teams that didn’t score well in the last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1814-2304 (44.1%) for -199.29 units and an ROI of -4.8% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN DIEGO (+181 at PHI), SAN FRANCISCO (-132 at AZ), KANSAS CITY (+134 at SEA)
Home teams that scored well in the last game are also a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3692-3261 (53.1%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -532.89 units and a ROI of -7.7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (-113 vs. STL), TORONTO (+119 vs. NYY), SEATTLE (-164 vs. KC)
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 331-167 (66.5%) for +43.06 units and an ROI of 8.6%!
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-113 vs. STL)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: TAMPA BAY -176 (+16 diff)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: CIN-BOS OVER 7.5 (+0.8)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: STL-PIT UNDER 9 (-0.7), SD-PHI UNDER 9 (-0.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(951) SAN DIEGO (45-38) at (952) PHILADELPHIA (49-35)
Trend: Zach Wheeler is 6-0 (+6.00 units) vs San Diego in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-225 vs. SD)
(953) ST LOUIS (47-38) at (954) PITTSBURGH (35-50)
Trend: Erick Fedde is 20-12 (+8.20 units) in the -115 to +110 line range in the last 2+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (-108 at PIT)
Trend: Andrew Heaney is 22-41 (-21.20 units) vs teams with a >53% win percentage in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (-113 vs. STL)
(955) SAN FRANCISCO (45-39) at (956) ARIZONA (41-42)
Trend: Under the total is 40-22-1 (+15.80 units) when SF is a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SF-AZ (o/u at 8.5)
(957) NEW YORK-AL (48-35) at (958) TORONTO (45-38)
Trend: Max Scherzer is 12-10 (+4.03 units) as an underdog in the last six seasons
Trend Match (SLIGHT PLAY): TORONTO (+119 vs. NYY)
(959) ATHLETICS (34-52) at (960) TAMPA BAY (47-37)
Trend: Under the total is 33-20-3 (+11.00 units) when TB is a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ATH-TB (o/u at 8)
(961) BALTIMORE (36-47) at (962) TEXAS (41-43)
Trend: Trevor Rogers is 14-30 (-10.08 units) on the road since 2020
Trend Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (-114 at TEX)
Trend: Patrick Corbin is 6-12 (-5.84 units) as a night underdog between line range of -105 to +120 in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (*if they fall into this line range, -107 currently)
Trend: Under the total is 30-12 (+16.80 units) in Rangers’ home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BAL-TEX (o/u at 8.5)
(963) KANSAS CITY (39-45) at (964) SEATTLE (43-40)
Trend: SEA is 19-39 (-17.91 units) on the run line as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-1.5 vs. KC)
(965) CINCINNATI (44-40) at (966) BOSTON (41-44)
Trend: Under the total is 29-15-2 (+12.50 units) in Reds’ night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CIN-BOS (o/u at 7.5)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #19: NY Yankees at Toronto, Mon 6/30-Thu 7/3
Trend: FAVORITES are just 24-35 (40.7%, -25.39 units) in the last 59 games between Toronto and NY Yankees
– The ROI on this trend is -43%
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-145 at TOR)
Series #26: Baltimore at Texas, Mon 6/30-Wed 7/2
Trend: Underdogs (and pick ’ems) are 21-11 (65.6%, +12.25 units) in the last 32 games between TEX and BAL
– The ROI on this trend is 38.3%
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-107 vs. BAL)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled “MLB Post-Rivalry Series Betting Opportunities.”
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next: tomorrow, July 1)
