Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Friday, October 25, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
World Series Game 1 home teams are on a 9-4 run (69.2%, +3.8 Units, 29.2% ROI)
System Match: PLAY LA DODGERS (-130 vs. NYY)
Trend: NYY has a solid 16-6 record as a ROAD underdog this season
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (+110 at LAD)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. The ROI on that system is -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle.
*In the 2024 playoffs, those on two-game winning streaks are 1-6 for -5.77 units, and those on three-game winnings streaks are 1-3 for -2.58 units.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE NY YANKEES (+110 at LAD)
Trend: Under the total is 7-14-1 this season when NYY is a ROAD underdog
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)
Trend: Jack Flaherty hasn’t been great in this postseason (15.1 IP, 12 ER, 7 BB)
System Match: FADE LA DODGERS (-130 vs. NYY)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 units and an ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): NY YANKEES
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 595-505 (54.1%) for -119.1 UNITS and an ROI of -10.8%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE): NY YANKEES
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: Majority handle bettors endured a terrible playoff season in 2023, with a month-long record of 19-21 (47.5%) for -10.51 UNITS and an ROI of -26.3%. This is typically a high-volume set of games, so bettors lost big in October.
System Matches (FADE): NY YANKEES
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. The ROI on that system is -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle.
*In the 2024 playoffs, those on two-game winning streaks are 1-6 for -5.77 units, and those on three-game winning streaks are 1-3 for -2.58 units.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE NY YANKEES (+110 at LAD)
MLB Betting Trends and Systems for the Postseason
The MLB postseason is a 12-team tournament made up of four rounds, with each round being played as a series with progressively more games the deeper you get. Perhaps unlike any other sport, because of the huge 162-game regular season schedule, the stakes of each and every MLB postseason game are enhanced tremendously, and as such, some different or additional handicapping strategies should be employed. With that in mind, one of the key factors in getting ready for these games is to know the history and the MLB betting trends/systems that have developed in recent years. Let’s dig into the key betting results from recent MLB playoff seasons to see if we can’t uncover nuggets that will help make these playoffs profitable.
Overall Postseason MLB Betting Trends
Line Angles
Home favorites of -112 to -180 in the MLB playoffs dating back to 2018 have been very vulnerable, as they are just 71-72 SU (-31.41 units, ROI: -22%)
System Match: FADE LA DODGERS (-130 vs. NYY)
Series Wins Status
Home field has proven somewhat advantageous in series that are even, as hosts in this situation have gone 79-75 on run lines (+15.79 units, ROI: 10.3%) since 2015.
System Match: PLAY LA DODGERS (-1.5 vs NYY)
Totals angles
The last three MLB postseasons have been very good for Over bettors, as although the outright record on totals is 78-71, Overs have produced a return of +25.53 units, an ROI of 17.1%. Total vig have been heavily shaded towards Unders.
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)
Nine Top World Series MLB Betting Trend Systems
Over the last 20+ years of World Series action, several nice betting systems have emerged. You know you’re going to bet the games, why not arm yourself with key data that has won recently?
WORLD SERIES system #1:
Home-field advantage hasn’t meant a lot in recent World Series action, with hosts on a 16-27 slide in the last 43 opportunities dating back to 2016 (-18.69 Units, -43.5% ROI)
System Match: FADE LA DODGERS (-130 vs. NYY)
WORLD SERIES system #3:
Strangely, the most profitable home teams in the World Series recently have been those in the -110 to -125 range, or the very short favorites, as those teams are on an 18-12 run since 2000 (+3.79 Units, 12.6% ROI)
System Match: PLAY LA DODGERS (*if they fall into this line range, -130 currently*)
WORLD SERIES system #4:
Overall, on totals, there has been a very slight lean to the Over in World Series games over the last 15 years. However, in games with totals of eight or higher, Under holds an edge of 18-13 in that span (+2.8 Units, 9% ROI)
System Match: PLAY UNDER in NYY-LAD (o/u at 8.5)
WORLD SERIES system #6:
World Series Game 1 home teams are on a 9-4 run (69.2%, +3.8 Units, 29.2% ROI)
System Match: PLAY LA DODGERS (-130 vs. NYY)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored 9 runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1694-1598 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -217.80 units. This represents an ROI of -6.6%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE): LA DODGERS (-130 vs. NYY)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored 5 runs or more are winning more often than not at 3412-3012 (53.1%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -484.73 units and an ROI of -7.5%.
System Matches (FADE): LA DODGERS (-130 vs NYY)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: NY YANKEES +110 (+21 diff)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: NYY-LAD UNDER 8.5 (-0.6)
Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(901) NEW YORK-AL (101-70) at (902) LOS ANGELES-NL (105-68)
Trend: NYY good record vs. RH starters (80-45, +12.62 units)
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (+110 at LAD)
Trend: NYY has a solid 16-6 record as a road underdog this season
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (+110 at LAD)
Trend: Under the total is 7-14-1 this season when NYY is a ROAD underdog
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)
Trend: Road teams are 8-4 in the NYY-LAD series since 2016
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (+110 at LAD)
Trend: LAD trending Over at night (78-45 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)
Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(901) NEW YORK-AL (101-70) at (902) LOS ANGELES-NL (105-68)
Trend: Jack Flaherty hasn’t been great in this postseason (15.1 IP, 12 ER, 7 BB)
System Match: FADE LA DODGERS (-130 vs. NYY)
