The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, October 8, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, October 8, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

Top MLB Resources:

AJ’s Angles

These are the top trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Trend: Philadelphia is 3-11 (-9.78 units) in its last 14 vs. the New York Mets with starter Aaron Nola.
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-112 at NYM)

Trend: Los Angeles Dodgers have a record of 4-11 as a ROAD underdog this season.
System Match: FADE LA DODGERS (+136 at SD)

Trend: Since 2013, the number 7 has been key in terms of runs scored for teams. In divisional-round games after a same-series game in which they scored seven runs or more, teams are 37-25 SU (+15.04 units, ROI: 24.3%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-112 at NYM), SAN DIEGO (-162 vs LAD)

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
HOME FAVORITES coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proved to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last four-plus seasons, going 307-157 (66.2%) for +36.48 units and a R.O.I. of 7.9%.
System Matches (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-162 vs LAD)

Strategies using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on VSiN.com before opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until the first pitch for best usage.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority BETS groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 UNITS and a ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that professional bettors are looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1 1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-112 at NYM), SAN DIEGO (-162 vs LAD)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: A unique system has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors as they are just 180-193 (48.3%) for -102.81 UNITS and an atrocious ROI of -27.6%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well since a lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE): SAN DIEGO (-162 vs LAD)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: Majority handle bettors endured a terrible playoff season in 2023, with a month-long record of 19-21 (47.5%) for -10.51 UNITS and a ROI of -26.3%. This is typically a high-volume set of games so bettors lost big in October.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-112 at NYM), SAN DIEGO (-162 vs LAD)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the ’23 season, and before that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick-’em). Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the ’24 season, these teams produced a 360-444 record for -26.45 units (ROI -3.3%). That was below standards historically and we will be looking for a bounce-back in ’25.
* In the ’24 playoffs, these teams are 5-4 for +2.78 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (-108 vs PHI), LA DODGERS (+136 at SD)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick-’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 319-342 record for +7.54 units (ROI 1.1%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
* In the ’24 playoffs, these teams are 3-3 for +0.68 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (-108 vs PHI), LA DODGERS (+136 at SD)

The MLB postseason is a 12-team tournament made up of four rounds, with each round being played as a series with progressively more games the deeper you get. Perhaps unlike any other sport, because of the huge 162-game regular-season schedule, the stakes of each and every MLB postseason game are enhanced tremendously, and as such, some different or additional handicapping strategies should be employed. With that in mind, one of the key factors in getting ready for these games is to know the history, and the trends/systems that have developed in recent years. Let’s dig into the key betting results from recent MLB playoff seasons to see if we can’t uncover nuggets that will help make these playoffs a profitable one.

Overall MLB Postseason Trends

Line Angles
Road favorites are on an 8-15 SU skid (-10.98 units, ROI: -47.7%)
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-112 at NYM)

Home favorites of -112 to -180 in the MLB playoffs dating to ’18 have been very vulnerable, as they are just 64-70 SU (-35.51 units, ROI: -26.5%)
System Match (FADE): SAN DIEGO (-162 vs LAD)

Coming off wins/losses
Home teams coming off a loss in a series game have been terrible bounce-back options, going 48-55 SU (-22.08 units, ROI: -22.6%) since ’16.
System Match (FADE): NY METS (-108 vs PHI)

Series wins status
Home field has proven somewhat advantageous in series that are even, as hosts in this situation have gone 72-73 on run lines (+10.63 units, ROI: 7.3%) since ’15.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (+1.5 vs PHI), SAN DIEGO (-1.5 vs LAD)

Stats from last game trends
MLB postseason teams coming off a same series game in which they scored 8 or more runs are on a 49-43 SU (+4.46 units, ROI: 4.8%) surge and 51-41 on run lines (+7.47 units, ROI: 8.1%) since ’14.
System Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO

Trends based on regular-season records
In the last three playoff seasons after a full regular season (excluding 2020), MLB teams that won less than 90 games are on a surge of 48-40 SU (+17.23 units, ROI: 19.6%) and 57-31 on run lines (+17.70 units, ROI: 20.1%) in playoff games.
System Match (PLAY): NY METS

Totals angles
The last three MLB postseasons have been very good for Over bettors, as although the outright record on totals is 65-64, Overs have produced a return of +20.20 units, a ROI of 15.7%. Total vig has been heavily shaded towards Unders.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in both games

Divisional Round Angles
Home-field advantage has been particularly prevalent in the divisional series when the host is leading in the series or even. Those hosts are on a surge of 54-35 SU (+5.34 units, ROI: 6%) and 47-42 on run lines (+12.69 units, ROI: 14.3%) since ’15.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS, SAN DIEGO

Since 2013, the number 7 has been key in terms of run scored for teams. In divisional-round games following a same-series game in which they scored seven runs or more, teams are 37-25 SU (+15.04 units, ROI: 24.3%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-112 at NYM), SAN DIEGO (-162 vs LAD)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

9 is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous game, they are posting a winning record at 1,693-1,595 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -214.95 units. This represents a ROI of -6.5%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE): SAN DIEGO (-162 vs LAD)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last four-plus seasons. These road teams are just 1,622-2,072 (43.9%) for -176.04 units and a ROI of -4.8% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE): LA DODGERS (+136 at SD)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3,405-3,007 (53.1%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -485.75 units and a ROI of -7.6%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS (-108 vs PHI), SAN DIEGO (-162 vs LAD)

Hitting a lot of home runs has carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proved to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last four-plus seasons, going 307-157 (66.2%) for +36.48 units and a ROI of 7.9%.
System Matches (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-162 vs LAD)
Also NY METS (*if they become favorites vs PHI, -108 currently*)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s Makinen Daily Ratings page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s underpriced underdogs (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: LA DODGERS +136 (+24 diff)

Today’s underpriced favorites (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY

Today’s biggest total projections favoring Over (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: LAD-SD OVER 7.5 (+0.9)

Today’s biggest total projections favoring Under (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY

MLB Team Situational Trend Spots

The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.

(901) PHILADELPHIA (96-68) at (902) NEW YORK-NL (92-75)
Trend: NYM good at NIGHT (60-37, +21.35 units)
System Match: PLAY NY METS (-108 vs PHI)

(903) LOS ANGELES-NL (99-65) at (904) SAN DIEGO (96-70)
Trend: LAD has a record of 4-11 as a ROAD underdog this season
System Match: FADE LA DODGERS (+136 at SD)

Trend: SD slight OVER at HOME (45-35 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 7.5)

MLB Pitcher Situational Betting Trend Spots

The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

(901) PHILADELPHIA (96-68) at (902) NEW YORK-NL (92-75)
Trend: PHI is 3-11 (-9.78 units) in the last 14 vs NY Mets with starter Aaron Nola
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-112 at NYM)

Trend: Sean Manaea is 6-9 (-3.06 units) within line range of -114 or worse at home in the last six seasons
System Match: FADE NY METS (-108 vs PHI)

(903) LOS ANGELES-NL (99-65) at (904) SAN DIEGO (96-70)
Trend: Walker Buehler is 35-13 (+7.82 units) against divisional competition since 2019
System Match: PLAY LA DODGERS (+136 at SD)

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities. 

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY

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